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Michael Weekes

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Nick K. Jones1,2*, Lucy Rivett1,2*, Chris Workman3, Mark Ferris3, Ashley Shaw1, Cambridge COVID-19 Collaboration1,4, Paul J. Lehner1,4, Rob Howes5, Giles Wright3, Nicholas J. Matheson1,4,6¶, Michael P. Weekes1,7¶1 Cambridge University NHS Hospitals Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK2 Clinical Microbiology & Public Health Laboratory, Public Health England, Cambridge, UK3 Occupational Health and Wellbeing, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, UK4 Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology & Infectious Disease, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK5 Cambridge COVID-19 Testing Centre and AstraZeneca, Anne Mclaren Building, Cambridge, UK6 NHS Blood and Transplant, Cambridge, UK7 Cambridge Institute for Medical Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK*Joint first authorship¶Joint last authorshipCorrespondence: UK has initiated mass COVID-19 immunisation, with healthcare workers (HCWs) given early priority because of the potential for workplace exposure and risk of onward transmission to patients. The UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has recommended maximising the number of people vaccinated with first doses at the expense of early booster vaccinations, based on single dose efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 disease.1-3At the time of writing, three COVID-19 vaccines have been granted emergency use authorisation in the UK, including the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech). A vital outstanding question is whether this vaccine prevents or promotes asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, rather than symptomatic COVID-19 disease, because sub-clinical infection following vaccination could continue to drive transmission. This is especially important because many UK HCWs have received this vaccine, and nosocomial COVID-19 infection has been a persistent problem.Through the implementation of a 24 h-turnaround PCR-based comprehensive HCW screening programme at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUHNFT), we previously demonstrated the frequent presence of pauci- and asymptomatic infection amongst HCWs during the UK’s first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.4 Here, we evaluate the effect of first-dose BNT162b2 vaccination on test positivity rates and cycle threshold (Ct) values in the asymptomatic arm of our programme, which now offers weekly screening to all staff.Vaccination of HCWs at CUHNFT began on 8th December 2020, with mass vaccination from 8th January 2021. Here, we analyse data from the two weeks spanning 18thto 31st January 2021, during which: (a) the prevalence of COVID-19 amongst HCWs remained approximately constant; and (b) we screened comparable numbers of vaccinated and unvaccinated HCWs. Over this period, 4,408 (week 1) and 4,411 (week 2) PCR tests were performed from individuals reporting well to work. We stratified HCWs <12 days or > 12 days post-vaccination because this was the point at which protection against symptomatic infection began to appear in phase III clinical trial.226/3,252 (0·80%) tests from unvaccinated HCWs were positive (Ct<36), compared to 13/3,535 (0·37%) from HCWs <12 days post-vaccination and 4/1,989 (0·20%) tests from HCWs ≥12 days post-vaccination (p=0·023 and p=0·004, respectively; Fisher’s exact test, Figure). This suggests a four-fold decrease in the risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst HCWs ≥12 days post-vaccination, compared to unvaccinated HCWs, with an intermediate effect amongst HCWs <12 days post-vaccination.A marked reduction in infections was also seen when analyses were repeated with: (a) inclusion of HCWs testing positive through both the symptomatic and asymptomatic arms of the programme (56/3,282 (1·71%) unvaccinated vs 8/1,997 (0·40%) ≥12 days post-vaccination, 4·3-fold reduction, p=0·00001); (b) inclusion of PCR tests which were positive at the limit of detection (Ct>36, 42/3,268 (1·29%) vs 15/2,000 (0·75%), 1·7-fold reduction, p=0·075); and (c) extension of the period of analysis to include six weeks from December 28th to February 7th 2021 (113/14,083 (0·80%) vs 5/4,872 (0·10%), 7·8-fold reduction, p=1x10-9). In addition, the median Ct value of positive tests showed a non-significant trend towards increase between unvaccinated HCWs and HCWs > 12 days post-vaccination (23·3 to 30·3, Figure), suggesting that samples from vaccinated individuals had lower viral loads.We therefore provide real-world evidence for a high level of protection against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection after a single dose of BNT162b2 vaccine, at a time of predominant transmission of the UK COVID-19 variant of concern 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), and amongst a population with a relatively low frequency of prior infection (7.2% antibody positive).5This work was funded by a Wellcome Senior Clinical Research Fellowship to MPW (108070/Z/15/Z), a Wellcome Principal Research Fellowship to PJL (210688/Z/18/Z), and an MRC Clinician Scientist Fellowship (MR/P008801/1) and NHSBT workpackage (WPA15-02) to NJM. Funding was also received from Addenbrooke’s Charitable Trust and the Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. We also acknowledge contributions from all staff at CUHNFT Occupational Health and Wellbeing and the Cambridge COVID-19 Testing Centre.

Guangming Wang

and 4 more

Tam Hunt

and 1 more

Tam Hunt [1], Jonathan SchoolerUniversity of California Santa Barbara Synchronization, harmonization, vibrations, or simply resonance in its most general sense seems to have an integral relationship with consciousness itself. One of the possible “neural correlates of consciousness” in mammalian brains is a combination of gamma, beta and theta synchrony. More broadly, we see similar kinds of resonance patterns in living and non-living structures of many types. What clues can resonance provide about the nature of consciousness more generally? This paper provides an overview of resonating structures in the fields of neuroscience, biology and physics and attempts to coalesce these data into a solution to what we see as the “easy part” of the Hard Problem, which is generally known as the “combination problem” or the “binding problem.” The combination problem asks: how do micro-conscious entities combine into a higher-level macro-consciousness? The proposed solution in the context of mammalian consciousness suggests that a shared resonance is what allows different parts of the brain to achieve a phase transition in the speed and bandwidth of information flows between the constituent parts. This phase transition allows for richer varieties of consciousness to arise, with the character and content of that consciousness in each moment determined by the particular set of constituent neurons. We also offer more general insights into the ontology of consciousness and suggest that consciousness manifests as a relatively smooth continuum of increasing richness in all physical processes, distinguishing our view from emergentist materialism. We refer to this approach as a (general) resonance theory of consciousness and offer some responses to Chalmers’ questions about the different kinds of “combination problem.”  At the heart of the universe is a steady, insistent beat: the sound of cycles in sync…. [T]hese feats of synchrony occur spontaneously, almost as if nature has an eerie yearning for order. Steven Strogatz, Sync: How Order Emerges From Chaos in the Universe, Nature and Daily Life (2003) If you want to find the secrets of the universe, think in terms of energy, frequency and vibration.Nikola Tesla (1942) I.               Introduction Is there an “easy part” and a “hard part” to the Hard Problem of consciousness? In this paper, we suggest that there is. The harder part is arriving at a philosophical position with respect to the relationship of matter and mind. This paper is about the “easy part” of the Hard Problem but we address the “hard part” briefly in this introduction.  We have both arrived, after much deliberation, at the position of panpsychism or panexperientialism (all matter has at least some associated mind/experience and vice versa). This is the view that all things and processes have both mental and physical aspects. Matter and mind are two sides of the same coin.  Panpsychism is one of many possible approaches that addresses the “hard part” of the Hard Problem. We adopt this position for all the reasons various authors have listed (Chalmers 1996, Griffin 1997, Hunt 2011, Goff 2017). This first step is particularly powerful if we adopt the Whiteheadian version of panpsychism (Whitehead 1929).  Reaching a position on this fundamental question of how mind relates to matter must be based on a “weight of plausibility” approach, rather than on definitive evidence, because establishing definitive evidence with respect to the presence of mind/experience is difficult. We must generally rely on examining various “behavioral correlates of consciousness” in judging whether entities other than ourselves are conscious – even with respect to other humans—since the only consciousness we can know with certainty is our own. Positing that matter and mind are two sides of the same coin explains the problem of consciousness insofar as it avoids the problems of emergence because under this approach consciousness doesn’t emerge. Consciousness is, rather, always present, at some level, even in the simplest of processes, but it “complexifies” as matter complexifies, and vice versa. Consciousness starts very simple and becomes more complex and rich under the right conditions, which in our proposed framework rely on resonance mechanisms. Matter and mind are two sides of the coin. Neither is primary; they are coequal.  We acknowledge the challenges of adopting this perspective, but encourage readers to consider the many compelling reasons to consider it that are reviewed elsewhere (Chalmers 1996, Griffin 1998, Hunt 2011, Goff 2017, Schooler, Schooler, & Hunt, 2011; Schooler, 2015).  Taking a position on the overarching ontology is the first step in addressing the Hard Problem. But this leads to the related questions: at what level of organization does consciousness reside in any particular process? Is a rock conscious? A chair? An ant? A bacterium? Or are only the smaller constituents, such as atoms or molecules, of these entities conscious? And if there is some degree of consciousness even in atoms and molecules, as panpsychism suggests (albeit of a very rudimentary nature, an important point to remember), how do these micro-conscious entities combine into the higher-level and obvious consciousness we witness in entities like humans and other mammals?  This set of questions is known as the “combination problem,” another now-classic problem in the philosophy of mind, and is what we describe here as the “easy part” of the Hard Problem. Our characterization of this part of the problem as “easy”[2] is, of course, more than a little tongue in cheek. The authors have discussed frequently with each other what part of the Hard Problem should be labeled the easier part and which the harder part. Regardless of the labels we choose, however, this paper focuses on our suggested solution to the combination problem.  Various solutions to the combination problem have been proposed but none have gained widespread acceptance. This paper further elaborates a proposed solution to the combination problem that we first described in Hunt 2011 and Schooler, Hunt, and Schooler 2011. The proposed solution rests on the idea of resonance, a shared vibratory frequency, which can also be called synchrony or field coherence. We will generally use resonance and “sync,” short for synchrony, interchangeably in this paper. We describe the approach as a general resonance theory of consciousness or just “general resonance theory” (GRT). GRT is a field theory of consciousness wherein the various specific fields associated with matter and energy are the seat of conscious awareness.  A summary of our approach appears in Appendix 1.  All things in our universe are constantly in motion, in process. Even objects that appear to be stationary are in fact vibrating, oscillating, resonating, at specific frequencies. So all things are actually processes. Resonance is a specific type of motion, characterized by synchronized oscillation between two states.  An interesting phenomenon occurs when different vibrating processes come into proximity: they will often start vibrating together at the same frequency. They “sync up,” sometimes in ways that can seem mysterious, and allow for richer and faster information and energy flows (Figure 1 offers a schematic). Examining this phenomenon leads to potentially deep insights about the nature of consciousness in both the human/mammalian context but also at a deeper ontological level.

Susanne Schilling*^

and 9 more

Jessica mead

and 6 more

The construct of wellbeing has been criticised as a neoliberal construction of western individualism that ignores wider systemic issues including increasing burden of chronic disease, widening inequality, concerns over environmental degradation and anthropogenic climate change. While these criticisms overlook recent developments, there remains a need for biopsychosocial models that extend theoretical grounding beyond individual wellbeing, incorporating overlapping contextual issues relating to community and environment. Our first GENIAL model \cite{Kemp_2017} provided a more expansive view of pathways to longevity in the context of individual health and wellbeing, emphasising bidirectional links to positive social ties and the impact of sociocultural factors. In this paper, we build on these ideas and propose GENIAL 2.0, focusing on intersecting individual-community-environmental contributions to health and wellbeing, and laying an evidence-based, theoretical framework on which future research and innovative therapeutic innovations could be based. We suggest that our transdisciplinary model of wellbeing - focusing on individual, community and environmental contributions to personal wellbeing - will help to move the research field forward. In reconceptualising wellbeing, GENIAL 2.0 bridges the gap between psychological science and population health health systems, and presents opportunities for enhancing the health and wellbeing of people living with chronic conditions. Implications for future generations including the very survival of our species are discussed.  

Mark Ferris

and 14 more

IntroductionConsistent with World Health Organization (WHO) advice [1], UK Infection Protection Control guidance recommends that healthcare workers (HCWs) caring for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) should use fluid resistant surgical masks type IIR (FRSMs) as respiratory protective equipment (RPE), unless aerosol generating procedures (AGPs) are being undertaken or are likely, when a filtering face piece 3 (FFP3) respirator should be used [2]. In a recent update, an FFP3 respirator is recommended if “an unacceptable risk of transmission remains following rigorous application of the hierarchy of control” [3]. Conversely, guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that HCWs caring for patients with COVID-19 should use an N95 or higher level respirator [4]. WHO guidance suggests that a respirator, such as FFP3, may be used for HCWs in the absence of AGPs if availability or cost is not an issue [1].A recent systematic review undertaken for PHE concluded that: “patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection who are breathing, talking or coughing generate both respiratory droplets and aerosols, but FRSM (and where required, eye protection) are considered to provide adequate staff protection” [5]. Nevertheless, FFP3 respirators are more effective in preventing aerosol transmission than FRSMs, and observational data suggests that they may improve protection for HCWs [6]. It has therefore been suggested that respirators should be considered as a means of affording the best available protection [7], and some organisations have decided to provide FFP3 (or equivalent) respirators to HCWs caring for COVID-19 patients, despite a lack of mandate from local or national guidelines [8].Data from the HCW testing programme at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUHNFT) during the first wave of the UK severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic indicated a higher incidence of infection amongst HCWs caring for patients with COVID-19, compared with those who did not [9]. Subsequent studies have confirmed this observation [10, 11]. This disparity persisted at CUHNFT in December 2020, despite control measures consistent with PHE guidance and audits indicating good compliance. The CUHNFT infection control committee therefore implemented a change of RPE for staff on “red” (COVID-19) wards from FRSMs to FFP3 respirators. In this study, we analyse the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in HCWs before and after this transition.

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Most recent documents

Yubo Li

and 8 more

Rationale: Schisandra chinensis is a traditional Chinese medicine in China. Based on the ultra-performance liquid chromatography quadrupole-Orbitrap-mass spectrometry (UPLC-Q-Orbitrap-MS) technique, we rapidly identified the components of Northern Schisandra chinensis(SS), Schisandrae Chinensis Fructus processed with vinegar(CS), Wine-processed Schisandra chinensis(JS), and distinguished the differences of the chemical composition of the three Schisandra chinensis before and after processing, to provide a reference for rational clinical use. Methods: In this study, used the UPLC-Q-Orbitrap-MS and data post-processing techniques. Based on the literature summarizing the fragmentation information of possible characteristic fragments(CFs) and related neutral losses (NLs)of lignans, organic acids, flavonoids, terpenoids and other components of Schisandra chinensis, then by comparing with the mass spectrum data obtained from the detection, to achieve rapid classification and identification of SS, CS and JS. Results: In this study, 51, 41 and 42 compounds were successfully identified from SS, CS and JS, respectively. The composition of Schisandra chinensis differs before and after processing, the realization of the distinction between the three traditional Chinese medicines. Conclusions: In this study, to distinguish SS, CS and JS in terms of chemical composition differences. It can achieve the rapid classification and identification of different processing technology of Schisandra chinensis and provide a reference for safer and rational clinical application.

Sofia Tallhage

and 3 more

Objective: This study aimed to examine incidence for umbilical cord prolapse, and to explore risk factors in labours where amniotomy is used. Design: Retrospective nationwide register study. Setting: Delivery wards in Sweden included in the Swedish Pregnancy Register. Participants: All births from January 2014 to June 2020, eligible participants n = 607 123. Methods: The main outcome, umbilical cord prolapse, was identified in the data by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10), diagnosis code O69.0. Multiple binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors. Results: Amniotomy was performed in 230 699 (38.0%) of the births, in which umbilical cord prolapses occurred in 293 cases (0.13%). Spontaneous rupture of the membranes occurred in 376 424 (62.0%), in which there were 458 cases (0.12%) of umbilical cord prolapse. Risk factors associated with umbilical cord prolapse in labors where amniotomy was used were higher parity, previous cesarean section, presence of polyhydramnios, induction of labour and non-cephalic presentation, that all increased the odds for umbilical cord prolapse. Conclusions: The severe complication of umbilical cord prolapse is rare in Sweden. Identified risk factors in labours where amniotomy is used were higher parity, previous cesarean section, polyhydramnios, induced labour and a baby in a non-cephalic presentation. Funding: Linnaeus University and LÖF; the Swedish patient insurance. The funders had no role in study design, analysis and interpretation of the data, or writing the article.

Sabriye Sel

and 2 more

Rationale: Pesticides are poisonous substances or mixtures of dangerous chemicals used to prevent, dissuade, control, or eradicate insects, weeds, rodents, fungi, or other potentially dangerous organisms. Pesticides must be separated from complex matrices before analysis by performing the proper extraction, cleaning, and/or preconcentration processes. The QuEChERS method served as a matrix clean-up tool and the DLLME method preconcentrated the analytes for their determination at trace levels. To increase the detection efficiency, a simple and efficient pretreatment process is required. Method: In this study, QuEChERS extraction was combined with dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction (DLLME) to extract pesticides from tropical fruits for determination by a highly accurate and sensitive liquid chromatography-quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-QTOF-MS/MS) system. All the variable parameters of the DLLME method were optimized to improve the extraction output for all analytes and the limits of detection and quantitation (LOD and LOQ) values, which are quite satisfactory, were calculated under the optimum conditions. Results: The LOD and LOQ values were found in the range of 0.004 – 0.013 and 0.27 – 0.61 µg/L, respectively. The detection limits achieved by direct LC-QTOF-MS/MS analysis were increased by about 10 – 260 fold using the optimized DLLME method. To assess the accuracy and applicability of the developed method, recovery experiments on tropical fruits were carried out. The matrix-matched calibration method was used to enhance the quantification accuracy of the analytes in kiwi, pineapple, and mango matrices, with percent recoveries ranging between 89 and 117%. Conclusion: The results show that the proposed method is feasible for the determination of pesticides with high accuracy and precision. The above approach acts as a reference method for monitoring tropical fruits while proposing prospective solutions for pesticides assessment in more complex matrices.

Zuri Hudson

and 3 more

Introduction The evaluation for an inherited bleeding disorder can be challenging. Our hematology clinic receives hundreds of referrals annually for bleeding disorder evaluation due to bleeding symptoms and secondary to preoperative laboratory testing. Aim To characterize hematology referrals for bleeding disorder evaluation at our institution. To describe the diagnostic outcomes, estimate the proportion diagnosed, and identify referral factors that are associated with being diagnosed with a bleeding disorder. Methods This is a single center, retrospective chart review. Patients referred and or seen for a bleeding disorder evaluation from 07/1/2018 until 06/30/19 were included. AIC was applied to logistic regression to identify factors associated with diagnosis of bleeding disorder. Results Of the 373 subjects included, mean (SD) age was 8.3 (5.4) years, 210 (56.3%) female, 256 (69%) white and 69 (18%) black; 40 (11%) were diagnosed with a bleeding disorder and 255 ruled out. Of our referred sample, 6% (21/373) were diagnosed with von Willebrand disease, 4% (14/373) with a platelet function disorder, and 1% (4/373) with a coagulation factor deficiency. Forty percent of referrals were for preoperative clearance, 36% for family history, and 57% for symptoms. The odds of a bleeding disorder diagnosis decreased by 8% for every year increase in age and were 3 times higher among patients having abnormal coagulation labs at the time of referral as compared to their counterparts. Conclusion This study highlights predictive variables for the presence of an inherited bleeding disorder. These results may contribute to future large-scale studies.

Victor Benvenuto

and 6 more

Objective The use of apixaban in the pediatric cardiac population is expanding. We describe our apixaban dosing and monitoring strategy in children and young adults awaiting heart transplantation, along with outcomes related to bleeding and thrombosis during wait-list and early post-transplant periods. Methods This study is a retrospective, single center analysis of all patients receiving apixaban while awaiting cardiac transplantation. Weight-based dosing was monitored with peak drug-specific anti-Xa chromogenic analysis. Significant post-operative bleeding defined by chest tube output or need for surgical intervention. Results From September 2020 through December 2022, 19 patients, median age 13.5 years (6.1, 15.8 years), weighing 48.9 kg (15.4, 67.6) received apixaban while awaiting transplant. Indication for apixaban was prophylaxis (n=18, 3 with ventricular assist devices) and treatment of thrombus (n=1). There were no clinically relevant non-major or major bleeding, nor thrombotic events while awaiting transplant. The median time from last apixaban dose to arrival in the operating room was 23.2 hours (15.6-33.8), with median random apixaban level of 37 ng/ml (28.3, 59), 6.3 hours (4.8, 8.4) prior to arrival in the operating room. 32% of patients had significant post-operative bleeding based on chest tube output post-transplant or need for intervention. No patients meeting criteria for significant postoperative bleeding were thought to be attributable to apixaban. Conclusion Careful use of apixaban can be safe and effective while awaiting heart transplant. There was no appreciable increase in perioperative bleeding. The use of apixaban is promising in providing safe, predictable and efficacious anticoagulation while avoiding additional patient stressors.

Kingsly C. Beng

and 3 more

Increased surface-water temperatures are predicted to drive dramatic changes to planktonic communities, with consequences for freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. A large number of short-term mesocosm studies reported temperature-driven changes in plankton, but comparatively few studies captured long-term changes. We used water eDNA metabarcoding to examine communities of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and planktonic protists and fungi in 10 natural lakes in central Poland, five of which have received hot-water discharge from power stations for the past 60 years. eDNA samples were collected in the winter, spring, summer, and autumn of 2020. Heated lakes were 2˚C warmer (annual mean) and had higher concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP). Based on relative abundance of amplicon sequence variants (ASVs), green algae (Chlorophyta) abundance was up to 15% higher in heated lakes, while that of golden algae (Chrysophyceae) was up to 7% higher in control lakes. ASV richness varied seasonally but was on average two-fold greater in heated lakes, and was consistently higher for phytoplankton, protists, and fungi. Considering the total community, heated and control lakes had distinct plankton assemblages, and there was less temporal variation in heated lakes. Warming was positively related to plankton relative abundance and richness. Our results suggest that increased temperature in heated lakes caused considerable shifts in plankton composition, where groups with preference for cooler temperatures were replaced by those with a preference for warmer conditions.

Yuri Chirkunov

and 1 more

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model that describes the longitudinal deformation of an elastic rod with a power-law nonlinearity in the presence of non-stationary extreme external action that is very strong at the initial time. For this model, all invariant submodels given by invariant solutions of the equation of this model are obtained. These submodels have not been previously noted in the literature. Invariant solutions of equation which describes this model are found either in explicit form, or their search is reduced to solving systems of differential equations of the first order. For the submodels given by the explicitly found solutions, we found out whether or not the destruction of the rod over time will occur within this submodel. For specific parameter values included in these solutions the distribution longitudinal displacement in the rod are shown in the graphs. In some cases, it was possible to find the place and time of the destruction of the rod. For other submodels, we study physically meaningful boundary value problems that describe non-linear longitudinal deformations of an elastic rod, for which at the initial moment of time at a fixed point either a longitudinal displacement and its gradient, or a longitudinal displacement and a rate of its change are given. The existence and uniqueness of solutions to these boundary value problems are established. under some additional conditions. This allows us to solve these problems numerically correctly.Boundary value problems for some specific values of the parameters included in them are solved numerically. The results of solving these boundary value problems are shown in the graphs.

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Shen Shen

and 3 more

Optimizing the spatial configuration of diverse best management practices (BMPs) can provide valuable decision-making support for comprehensive watershed management. Most existing methods focus on selecting BMP types and locations but neglect their implementation time or order in management scenarios, which are often investment-restricted. This study proposes a new simulation-optimization framework for determining the implementation plan of BMPs by using the net present value to calculate the economic costs of BMP scenarios and the time-varying effectiveness of BMPs to evaluate the environmental effectiveness of BMP scenarios. The proposed framework was implemented based on a Spatially Explicit Integrated Modeling System and demonstrated in an agricultural watershed case study. This case study optimized the implementation time of four erosion control BMPs in a specific spatial configuration scenario under a 5-year stepwise investment process. The proposed method could effectively provide more feasible BMP scenarios with a lower overall investment burden with only a slight loss of environmental effectiveness. Time-varying BMP effectiveness data should be gathered and incorporated into watershed modeling and scenario optimization to better depict the environmental improvement effects of BMPs over time. The proposed framework was sufficiently flexible to be applied to other technical implementations and extensible to more actual application cases with sufficient BMP data. Overall, this study demonstrated the basic idea of extending the spatial optimization of BMPs to a spatiotemporal level by considering stepwise investment, emphasizing the value of integrating physical geographic processes and anthropogenic influences.

Niels Fraehr

and 3 more

High computational cost is often the most limiting factor when running high-resolution hydrodynamic models to simulate spatial-temporal flood inundation behaviour. To address this issue, a recent study introduced the hybrid Low-fidelity, Spatial analysis, and Gaussian Process learning (LSG) model. The LSG model simulates the dynamic behaviour of flood inundation extent by upskilling simulations from a low-resolution hydrodynamic model through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and Sparse Gaussian Process (Sparse GP) learning. However, information on flood extent alone is often not sufficient to provide accurate flood risk assessments. In addition, the LSG model has only been tested on hydrodynamic models with structured grids, while modern hydrodynamic models tend to use unstructured grids. This study therefore further develops the LSG model to simulate water depth as well as flood extent and demonstrates its efficacy as a surrogate for a high-resolution hydrodynamic model with an unstructured grid. The further developed LSG model is evaluated on the flat and complex Chowilla floodplain of the Murray River in Australia and accurately predicts both depth and extent of the flood inundation, while being 12 times more computationally efficient than a high-resolution hydrodynamic model. In addition, it has been found that weighting before the EOF analysis can compensate for the varying grid cell sizes in an unstructured grid and the inundation extent should be predicted from an extent-based LSG model rather than deriving it from water depth predictions.

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