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Michael Weekes

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Nick K. Jones1,2*, Lucy Rivett1,2*, Chris Workman3, Mark Ferris3, Ashley Shaw1, Cambridge COVID-19 Collaboration1,4, Paul J. Lehner1,4, Rob Howes5, Giles Wright3, Nicholas J. Matheson1,4,6¶, Michael P. Weekes1,7¶1 Cambridge University NHS Hospitals Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK2 Clinical Microbiology & Public Health Laboratory, Public Health England, Cambridge, UK3 Occupational Health and Wellbeing, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, UK4 Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology & Infectious Disease, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK5 Cambridge COVID-19 Testing Centre and AstraZeneca, Anne Mclaren Building, Cambridge, UK6 NHS Blood and Transplant, Cambridge, UK7 Cambridge Institute for Medical Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK*Joint first authorship¶Joint last authorshipCorrespondence: mpw1001@cam.ac.ukThe UK has initiated mass COVID-19 immunisation, with healthcare workers (HCWs) given early priority because of the potential for workplace exposure and risk of onward transmission to patients. The UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has recommended maximising the number of people vaccinated with first doses at the expense of early booster vaccinations, based on single dose efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 disease.1-3At the time of writing, three COVID-19 vaccines have been granted emergency use authorisation in the UK, including the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech). A vital outstanding question is whether this vaccine prevents or promotes asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, rather than symptomatic COVID-19 disease, because sub-clinical infection following vaccination could continue to drive transmission. This is especially important because many UK HCWs have received this vaccine, and nosocomial COVID-19 infection has been a persistent problem.Through the implementation of a 24 h-turnaround PCR-based comprehensive HCW screening programme at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUHNFT), we previously demonstrated the frequent presence of pauci- and asymptomatic infection amongst HCWs during the UK’s first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.4 Here, we evaluate the effect of first-dose BNT162b2 vaccination on test positivity rates and cycle threshold (Ct) values in the asymptomatic arm of our programme, which now offers weekly screening to all staff.Vaccination of HCWs at CUHNFT began on 8th December 2020, with mass vaccination from 8th January 2021. Here, we analyse data from the two weeks spanning 18thto 31st January 2021, during which: (a) the prevalence of COVID-19 amongst HCWs remained approximately constant; and (b) we screened comparable numbers of vaccinated and unvaccinated HCWs. Over this period, 4,408 (week 1) and 4,411 (week 2) PCR tests were performed from individuals reporting well to work. We stratified HCWs <12 days or > 12 days post-vaccination because this was the point at which protection against symptomatic infection began to appear in phase III clinical trial.226/3,252 (0·80%) tests from unvaccinated HCWs were positive (Ct<36), compared to 13/3,535 (0·37%) from HCWs <12 days post-vaccination and 4/1,989 (0·20%) tests from HCWs ≥12 days post-vaccination (p=0·023 and p=0·004, respectively; Fisher’s exact test, Figure). This suggests a four-fold decrease in the risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst HCWs ≥12 days post-vaccination, compared to unvaccinated HCWs, with an intermediate effect amongst HCWs <12 days post-vaccination.A marked reduction in infections was also seen when analyses were repeated with: (a) inclusion of HCWs testing positive through both the symptomatic and asymptomatic arms of the programme (56/3,282 (1·71%) unvaccinated vs 8/1,997 (0·40%) ≥12 days post-vaccination, 4·3-fold reduction, p=0·00001); (b) inclusion of PCR tests which were positive at the limit of detection (Ct>36, 42/3,268 (1·29%) vs 15/2,000 (0·75%), 1·7-fold reduction, p=0·075); and (c) extension of the period of analysis to include six weeks from December 28th to February 7th 2021 (113/14,083 (0·80%) vs 5/4,872 (0·10%), 7·8-fold reduction, p=1x10-9). In addition, the median Ct value of positive tests showed a non-significant trend towards increase between unvaccinated HCWs and HCWs > 12 days post-vaccination (23·3 to 30·3, Figure), suggesting that samples from vaccinated individuals had lower viral loads.We therefore provide real-world evidence for a high level of protection against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection after a single dose of BNT162b2 vaccine, at a time of predominant transmission of the UK COVID-19 variant of concern 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), and amongst a population with a relatively low frequency of prior infection (7.2% antibody positive).5This work was funded by a Wellcome Senior Clinical Research Fellowship to MPW (108070/Z/15/Z), a Wellcome Principal Research Fellowship to PJL (210688/Z/18/Z), and an MRC Clinician Scientist Fellowship (MR/P008801/1) and NHSBT workpackage (WPA15-02) to NJM. Funding was also received from Addenbrooke’s Charitable Trust and the Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. We also acknowledge contributions from all staff at CUHNFT Occupational Health and Wellbeing and the Cambridge COVID-19 Testing Centre.

Guangming Wang

and 4 more

Tam Hunt

and 1 more

Tam Hunt [1], Jonathan SchoolerUniversity of California Santa Barbara Synchronization, harmonization, vibrations, or simply resonance in its most general sense seems to have an integral relationship with consciousness itself. One of the possible “neural correlates of consciousness” in mammalian brains is a combination of gamma, beta and theta synchrony. More broadly, we see similar kinds of resonance patterns in living and non-living structures of many types. What clues can resonance provide about the nature of consciousness more generally? This paper provides an overview of resonating structures in the fields of neuroscience, biology and physics and attempts to coalesce these data into a solution to what we see as the “easy part” of the Hard Problem, which is generally known as the “combination problem” or the “binding problem.” The combination problem asks: how do micro-conscious entities combine into a higher-level macro-consciousness? The proposed solution in the context of mammalian consciousness suggests that a shared resonance is what allows different parts of the brain to achieve a phase transition in the speed and bandwidth of information flows between the constituent parts. This phase transition allows for richer varieties of consciousness to arise, with the character and content of that consciousness in each moment determined by the particular set of constituent neurons. We also offer more general insights into the ontology of consciousness and suggest that consciousness manifests as a relatively smooth continuum of increasing richness in all physical processes, distinguishing our view from emergentist materialism. We refer to this approach as a (general) resonance theory of consciousness and offer some responses to Chalmers’ questions about the different kinds of “combination problem.”  At the heart of the universe is a steady, insistent beat: the sound of cycles in sync…. [T]hese feats of synchrony occur spontaneously, almost as if nature has an eerie yearning for order. Steven Strogatz, Sync: How Order Emerges From Chaos in the Universe, Nature and Daily Life (2003) If you want to find the secrets of the universe, think in terms of energy, frequency and vibration.Nikola Tesla (1942) I.               Introduction Is there an “easy part” and a “hard part” to the Hard Problem of consciousness? In this paper, we suggest that there is. The harder part is arriving at a philosophical position with respect to the relationship of matter and mind. This paper is about the “easy part” of the Hard Problem but we address the “hard part” briefly in this introduction.  We have both arrived, after much deliberation, at the position of panpsychism or panexperientialism (all matter has at least some associated mind/experience and vice versa). This is the view that all things and processes have both mental and physical aspects. Matter and mind are two sides of the same coin.  Panpsychism is one of many possible approaches that addresses the “hard part” of the Hard Problem. We adopt this position for all the reasons various authors have listed (Chalmers 1996, Griffin 1997, Hunt 2011, Goff 2017). This first step is particularly powerful if we adopt the Whiteheadian version of panpsychism (Whitehead 1929).  Reaching a position on this fundamental question of how mind relates to matter must be based on a “weight of plausibility” approach, rather than on definitive evidence, because establishing definitive evidence with respect to the presence of mind/experience is difficult. We must generally rely on examining various “behavioral correlates of consciousness” in judging whether entities other than ourselves are conscious – even with respect to other humans—since the only consciousness we can know with certainty is our own. Positing that matter and mind are two sides of the same coin explains the problem of consciousness insofar as it avoids the problems of emergence because under this approach consciousness doesn’t emerge. Consciousness is, rather, always present, at some level, even in the simplest of processes, but it “complexifies” as matter complexifies, and vice versa. Consciousness starts very simple and becomes more complex and rich under the right conditions, which in our proposed framework rely on resonance mechanisms. Matter and mind are two sides of the coin. Neither is primary; they are coequal.  We acknowledge the challenges of adopting this perspective, but encourage readers to consider the many compelling reasons to consider it that are reviewed elsewhere (Chalmers 1996, Griffin 1998, Hunt 2011, Goff 2017, Schooler, Schooler, & Hunt, 2011; Schooler, 2015).  Taking a position on the overarching ontology is the first step in addressing the Hard Problem. But this leads to the related questions: at what level of organization does consciousness reside in any particular process? Is a rock conscious? A chair? An ant? A bacterium? Or are only the smaller constituents, such as atoms or molecules, of these entities conscious? And if there is some degree of consciousness even in atoms and molecules, as panpsychism suggests (albeit of a very rudimentary nature, an important point to remember), how do these micro-conscious entities combine into the higher-level and obvious consciousness we witness in entities like humans and other mammals?  This set of questions is known as the “combination problem,” another now-classic problem in the philosophy of mind, and is what we describe here as the “easy part” of the Hard Problem. Our characterization of this part of the problem as “easy”[2] is, of course, more than a little tongue in cheek. The authors have discussed frequently with each other what part of the Hard Problem should be labeled the easier part and which the harder part. Regardless of the labels we choose, however, this paper focuses on our suggested solution to the combination problem.  Various solutions to the combination problem have been proposed but none have gained widespread acceptance. This paper further elaborates a proposed solution to the combination problem that we first described in Hunt 2011 and Schooler, Hunt, and Schooler 2011. The proposed solution rests on the idea of resonance, a shared vibratory frequency, which can also be called synchrony or field coherence. We will generally use resonance and “sync,” short for synchrony, interchangeably in this paper. We describe the approach as a general resonance theory of consciousness or just “general resonance theory” (GRT). GRT is a field theory of consciousness wherein the various specific fields associated with matter and energy are the seat of conscious awareness.  A summary of our approach appears in Appendix 1.  All things in our universe are constantly in motion, in process. Even objects that appear to be stationary are in fact vibrating, oscillating, resonating, at specific frequencies. So all things are actually processes. Resonance is a specific type of motion, characterized by synchronized oscillation between two states.  An interesting phenomenon occurs when different vibrating processes come into proximity: they will often start vibrating together at the same frequency. They “sync up,” sometimes in ways that can seem mysterious, and allow for richer and faster information and energy flows (Figure 1 offers a schematic). Examining this phenomenon leads to potentially deep insights about the nature of consciousness in both the human/mammalian context but also at a deeper ontological level.

Susanne Schilling*^

and 9 more

Jessica mead

and 6 more

The construct of wellbeing has been criticised as a neoliberal construction of western individualism that ignores wider systemic issues including increasing burden of chronic disease, widening inequality, concerns over environmental degradation and anthropogenic climate change. While these criticisms overlook recent developments, there remains a need for biopsychosocial models that extend theoretical grounding beyond individual wellbeing, incorporating overlapping contextual issues relating to community and environment. Our first GENIAL model \cite{Kemp_2017} provided a more expansive view of pathways to longevity in the context of individual health and wellbeing, emphasising bidirectional links to positive social ties and the impact of sociocultural factors. In this paper, we build on these ideas and propose GENIAL 2.0, focusing on intersecting individual-community-environmental contributions to health and wellbeing, and laying an evidence-based, theoretical framework on which future research and innovative therapeutic innovations could be based. We suggest that our transdisciplinary model of wellbeing - focusing on individual, community and environmental contributions to personal wellbeing - will help to move the research field forward. In reconceptualising wellbeing, GENIAL 2.0 bridges the gap between psychological science and population health health systems, and presents opportunities for enhancing the health and wellbeing of people living with chronic conditions. Implications for future generations including the very survival of our species are discussed.  

Mark Ferris

and 14 more

IntroductionConsistent with World Health Organization (WHO) advice [1], UK Infection Protection Control guidance recommends that healthcare workers (HCWs) caring for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) should use fluid resistant surgical masks type IIR (FRSMs) as respiratory protective equipment (RPE), unless aerosol generating procedures (AGPs) are being undertaken or are likely, when a filtering face piece 3 (FFP3) respirator should be used [2]. In a recent update, an FFP3 respirator is recommended if “an unacceptable risk of transmission remains following rigorous application of the hierarchy of control” [3]. Conversely, guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that HCWs caring for patients with COVID-19 should use an N95 or higher level respirator [4]. WHO guidance suggests that a respirator, such as FFP3, may be used for HCWs in the absence of AGPs if availability or cost is not an issue [1].A recent systematic review undertaken for PHE concluded that: “patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection who are breathing, talking or coughing generate both respiratory droplets and aerosols, but FRSM (and where required, eye protection) are considered to provide adequate staff protection” [5]. Nevertheless, FFP3 respirators are more effective in preventing aerosol transmission than FRSMs, and observational data suggests that they may improve protection for HCWs [6]. It has therefore been suggested that respirators should be considered as a means of affording the best available protection [7], and some organisations have decided to provide FFP3 (or equivalent) respirators to HCWs caring for COVID-19 patients, despite a lack of mandate from local or national guidelines [8].Data from the HCW testing programme at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUHNFT) during the first wave of the UK severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic indicated a higher incidence of infection amongst HCWs caring for patients with COVID-19, compared with those who did not [9]. Subsequent studies have confirmed this observation [10, 11]. This disparity persisted at CUHNFT in December 2020, despite control measures consistent with PHE guidance and audits indicating good compliance. The CUHNFT infection control committee therefore implemented a change of RPE for staff on “red” (COVID-19) wards from FRSMs to FFP3 respirators. In this study, we analyse the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in HCWs before and after this transition.

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Sihang Cheng

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Xiao Liu

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Background and purpose Obesity may be more likely to lead to asthma, that is, obesity asthma. Children are the age stage of high incidence of asthma. Obesity asthma may be more refractory in children with asthma, and is more likely to produce glucocorticoid resistance, which greatly leads to the risk of severe disease in children with asthma. However, approaches to combating Obesity Asthma/Childhood Asthma complications are limited by conditions. Existing evidence shows that chrysophanol has antibacterial and anti-inflammatory, fat reduction, anticough, promoting gastrointestinal functional homeostasis and immune regulation. Experimental methods Through systematic pharmacological and bioinformatics analysis, we evaluated the physical and chemical properties and biological activities of chrysophanol, and further analyzed its binding activities, targets, biological functions and mechanisms. Key results It was found that chrysophanol can play the ideal physical and chemical properties and biological activities. The PPI network screened 144 common targets of drugs and diseases, and 15 hub targets were obtained. Then, the top 10 hub targets were identified, namely EGFR, HSP90AA1, ESR1, HIF1A, STAT3, SRC, PTGS2, MTOR, MMP9, PIK3CA, and verified in the protein-ligand blind docking. Enrichment analysis showed that chrysophanol may be involved in inflammation regulation, EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor resistance, HIF-1 signaling pathway, Neutrophil extracellular trap formation,and so on. Conclusions and implications Our fingdings indicate that chrysophanol can reduce airway inflammation and remodeling through multi-pathway and multi-target, and provide evidence for the application of chrysophanol in Obesity Asthma/Childhood Asthma comorbidities. The predicted results will be strictly verified by experiments.

Anindya Ghosh

and 5 more

BACKGROUND Conduction system pacing (CSP) in recent years is being considered as the ideal pacing strategy. Lumen less leads (LLLs) have been the predominantly used technology since its inception until recently. We herein share the largest single-center experience of Stylet-driven leads (SDLs) using deflectable mapping catheter, a recent technology for conduction system pacing at both HB and LB areas, and their medium-term outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS Patients with standard pacing indications were enrolled between June 2021 and November 2022. The aim of this study was to evaluate safety and feasibility of CSP using SDL guided by deflectable mapping delivery catheter by analyzing implant tools, parameters during implant and follow- up. RESULTS A total of 37 patients (mean age 67.16 + 9.89 years, 53.3% males, 31 pacemakers, 4 His-CRT-Ps and 2 dual chamber Defibrillators, Mean follow up duration 210.7 + 25.1 days) were enrolled. HBP was the default strategy. Procedural success was seen in 17/37 (45.9%) patients. Incidence of lead dislodgement was 17.6%. LBBaP was tried in the rest (20/37). A septal curve was manually made in 3 patients. Procedural success was seen in all patients (3/3) in whom septal curve was added and in 12/17 (70.5%) patients without it. Compared to HBP, procedural parameters didn’t differ significantly for LBBaP. Sensing and Pacing parameters remained stable on follow up. CONCLUSION Use of SDL is adequate for both HB and LB areas. Preeshaping the deflectable mapping catheter can help in achieving better results and also lower the overall procedure time.

Inês Matos

and 11 more

Phoretic mites have been found attached to different body parts of red palm weevil (RPW), Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier, 1790), to disperse. However, the question of how the patterns of attachment sites are formed remains intriguing. Here, we conducted the first study of RPW-associated phoretic mites in Portugal, particularly in the districts of Viana do Castelo, Braga, Porto and Aveiro in Northern Portugal (macrohabitat), and investigated the patterns of mite distribution on six body parts of RPW (microhabitat). At the macrohabitat level, we detected seven phoretic mite taxa actively using RPW host in each of the four studied districts, all documented for the first time in association with this invasive exotic species in Portugal. However, their relative abundance (species evenness) varied between districts, as did species diversity. All examined weevils carried mites, and the prevalence of the different taxa did not differ between districts or sex of weevils. Measured by mean abundance and degree of aggregation, Centrouropoda sp. proved to be the common dominant taxon, while Acarus sp. and C. rhynchoporus were considered common subordinate taxa and Uroovobella sp., Mesostigmata, N. extremica and Dendrolaelaps sp. sparse taxa. At the microhabitat level, all taxa were present in all body parts of the RPW; the highest abundance was in a region encompassing the inner surface of the elytra and the membranous hind wings (subelytral space). Analysis of niche overlap revealed that the distribution patterns of phoretic mite taxa on the RPW were not randomly structured. In the subelytral space, interspecific coexistence of mites increased as a function of body size difference with the dominant Centrouropoda sp. We conclude that the distribution patterns of RPW-associated phoretic mites show body size-dependent effects that resulted in the dominant taxon displacing similar size taxa and accepting taxa with which it has the greatest size difference as co-habitants.

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Selim Polat

and 3 more

Objective: The aim of this research was to elucidate the effect of deep brain stimulation on apathy, and cognitive functions in the pre and post-operative period. Materials & Methods: This study was conducted in Adana City Training & Research Hospital, Parkinson and Movement Disorders Center between January to December 2022. Individuals were evaluated by a multidisciplinary commission consisting of neurology, neurosurgery and psychiatrists. Thirty six, aged between 18–70 years who underwent Deep Brain Stimulation at the neurosurgery clinic were included in the study. Hamiltonanxiety and depression, apathy assessment, standard mini-mental test and Montreal Cognitive Assessment scales are applied to the patients. Results: The mean Apathy Score at the pre-op was 47.77±15.83 in patients who had undergone DBS operation while it was 30.83±13.59 in the post–op. This decrease was statistically significant (p<0.003) and indicated clinical improvement. The average Hamilton Anxiety scale scores at the pre–op was 11.50±5.14, and s 10.22±5.57 at the post-op with no clinical significance (p=0.28). The UPDRS-ON value was determined as 22.55±7.53 in the pre–op and 14.50±6.99 in the post–op significantly (p<0.001). UPDRS-OFF was found to be significant with pre–op 37.44±9.85, compared to post–op 23.44±7.86 (p<0.001). Conclusion: Regarding the results of this study, it was found that sub – thalamic stimulation led to stabilization of both motor and non-motor complications. Additionally DBS ameliorated apathy and Parkinson’s Disease symptoms of patients significantly. Future studies with larger sample size that focus on both pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments might provide better clinical aspects.
This study presents the micro- and macrophysical cloud properties as a function of their surface coupling state with the sea ice during the wintertime of the MOSAiC field experiment. Cloud properties such as cloud base height, liquid- and ice water content have been previously found to have statistically distinguished features under the presence of sea ice leads (characterized by sea ice concentration, SIC) along downwind direction from the central observatory RV  Polarstern. Those findings are mainly in an increase of liquid water content, and favored occurrence of low level clouds as contrasted to situations when the clouds are thermodynamically decoupled.The present contribution is an update considering two recent developments in the liquid detection in clouds and in the detection of sea ice leads. First, radar and lidar-based cloud droplet detection approaches like Cloudnet (Illingworth et al. 2007, Tukiainen et al. 2020) using Arctic wintertime observations and applied to measurements by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement mobile facility (ARM) instrumental suite on-board the RV Polarstern during  MOSAiC.Secondly, we explore a new sea ice lead fraction product based on sea ice divergence. Sea ice divergence is estimated from sequential images of space-borne synthetic aperture radar with a spatial resolution of 700 m. The lead divergence product, being independent of cloud coverage, offers the unique advantage to detect opening leads at high spatial resolution.Statistics for the wintertime cloud properties based on the coupling state with the sea ice concentration and sea ice lead fraction will be presented as an approach to study Arctic clouds and their interaction with sea ice.

Margaret L Duffy

and 1 more

The response of the Pacific Walker circulation (WC) to long-term warming remains uncertain. Here, we diagnose contributions to the WC response in comprehensive and idealized general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We find that the spread in WC response is substantial across both the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) models, implicating differences in atmospheric models in the spread in projected WC strength. Using a moist static energy (MSE) budget, we evaluate the contributions to changes in the WC strength related to changes in gross moist stability (GMS), horizontal MSE advection, radiation, and surface fluxes. We find that the multimodel mean WC weakening is mostly related to changes in GMS and radiation. Furthermore, the spread in WC response is related to the spread in GMS and radiation responses. The GMS response is potentially sensitive to parameterized convective entrainment which can affect lapse rates and the depth of convection. We thus investigate the role of entrainment in setting the GMS response by varying the entrainment rate in an idealized GCM. The idealized GCM is run with a simplified Betts-Miller convection scheme, modified to represent entrainment. The weakening of the WC with warming in the idealized GCM is dampened when higher entrainment rates are used. However, the spread in GMS responses due to differing entrainment rates is much smaller than the spread in GMS responses across CMIP6 models. Therefore, further work is needed to understand the large spread in GMS responses across CMIP6 and AMIP models. 

Monique Weemstra

and 3 more

Root traits and functioning: from individual plants to ecosystemsFine roots, the most distal portions of the root system, are responsible for the uptake of water and nutrients by plants, represent the main type of plant tissue contributing to soil organic matter accrual, and are key drivers of mineral weathering and soil microbial dynamics (Bardgett et al. 2014). Despite the overwhelming importance of fine root traits for plant and plant community functioning and biogeochemical cycles, basic information about their ecology is lacking, particularly compared to the wealth of information developed for leaves and stems. Testing hypotheses on how root traits underlie these ecosystem processes has been particularly hampered due to (1) a paucity of systematically collected data and (2) the complexity of the relationships between root traits and root, plant and ecosystem functioning. Nonetheless, the development of the field of root ecology in the last two decades has been outstanding, in particular in the compilation of belowground trait datasets (Iversen et al. 2017), methodological root ecological handbooks (Freschet et al. 2021b), novel conceptual frameworks to describe root trait diversity (Bergmann et al. 2020), its connection with belowground plant and community function (Bardgett et al. 2014, Freschet et al. 2021a), species’ distributions (Laughlin et al. 2021), and scaling up traits from the individual root to the ecosystem level (McCormack et al. 2017). The papers that feature in this Special Issue on Root traits and functioning: from individual plants to ecosystems cover different climate regions, taxonomic and spatial scales, and a diversity of traits (Table 1) and form perfect examples of this upward moment of the belowground component in plant ecology.

Maria Hieta

and 15 more

Kiwamu Nishida

and 3 more

Seismic interferometry is a powerful tool to monitor the seismic velocity change associated with volcanic eruptions. For the monitoring, changes in seismic velocity with environmental origins (such as precipitation) are problematic. In order to model the environmental effects, we propose a new technique based on a state-space model. An extended Kalman filter estimates seismic velocity changes as state variables, with a first-order approximation of the stretching method. We apply this technique to three-component seismic records in order to detect the seismic velocity change associated with the Shinmoe-dake eruptions in 2011 and 2018. First, ambient noise cross-correlations were calculated from May 2010 to April 2018. We also modeled seismic velocity changes resulting from precipitation and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, with exponential type responses. Most of the results show no significant changes associated with the eruptions, although gradual inflation of the magma reservoir preceded the 2011 eruption by one year. The observed low sensitivity to static stress changes suggests that the fraction of geofluid and crack density at about 1 km depth is small, and the shapes could be circular. Only one station pair west of the crater shows the significant drop associated with the eruption in 2011. The gradual drop of seismic velocity up to 0.05% preceded the eruption by one month. When the gradual drop began, volcanic tremors were activated at about 2 km depth. These observations suggest that the drop could be caused by damage accumulation due to vertical magma migration beneath the summit.

Nora Loose

and 3 more

Oceanic quantities of interest (QoIs), e.g., ocean heat content or transports, are often inaccessible to direct observation, due to the high cost of instrument deployment and logistical challenges. Therefore, oceanographers seek proxies for undersampled or unobserved QoIs. Conventionally, proxy potential is assessed via statistical correlations, which measure covariability without establishing causality. This paper introduces an alternative method: quantifying dynamical proxy potential. Using an adjoint model, this method unambiguously identifies the physical origins of covariability. A North Atlantic case study illustrates our method within the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) state estimation framework. We find that wind forcing along the eastern and northern boundaries of the Atlantic drives a basin-wide response in North Atlantic circulation and temperature. Due to these large-scale teleconnections, a single subsurface temperature observation in the Irminger Sea informs heat transport across the remote Iceland-Scotland ridge (ISR), with a dynamical proxy potential of 19%. Dynamical proxy potential allows two equivalent interpretations: Irminger Sea subsurface temperature (i) shares 19% of its adjustment physics with ISR heat transport; (ii) reduces the uncertainty in ISR heat transport by 19% (independent of the measured temperature value), if the Irminger Sea observation is added without noise to the ECCO state estimate. With its two interpretations, dynamical proxy potential is simultaneously rooted in (i) ocean dynamics and (ii) uncertainty quantification and optimal observing system design, the latter being an emerging branch in computational science. The new method may therefore foster dynamics-based, quantitative ocean observing system design in the coming years.

Georg Reuber

and 3 more

The Yellowstone magmatic system is one of the largest magmatic systems on Earth, and thus an ideal location to study magmatic processes. Whereas previous seismic tomography results could only image a shallow magma reservoir, a recent study using more seismometers showed that a second and massive partially molten mush reservoir exists above the Moho \citep{huang2015yellowstone}. To understand the measurable surface response of this system to visco-elasto-plastic deformation, it is thus important to take the whole system from the mantle plume up to the shallow magma reservoirs into account. Here, we employ lithospheric-scale 3D visco-elasto-plastic geodynamic models to test the influence of parameters such as the connectivity of the reservoirs and rheology of the lithosphere on the dynamics of the system. A gravity inversion is used to constrain the effective density of the magma reservoirs, and an adjoint modelling approach reveals the key model parameters affecting the surface velocity. Model results show that a combination of connected reservoirs with plastic rheology can explain the recorded slow vertical surface uplift rates of around 1.2 cm/yr, as representing a long term background signal. A geodynamic inversion to fit the model to observed GPS surface velocities reveals that the magnitude of surface uplift varies strongly with the viscosity difference between the reservoirs and the crust. Even though stress directions have not been used as inversion parameters, modelled stress orientations are consistent with observations. However, phases of larger uplift velocities can also result from magma reservoir inflation which is a short term effect. We consider two approaches: 1) overpressure in the magma reservoir in the asthenosphere and 2) inflation of the uppermost reservoir prescribed by an internal kinematic boundary condition. We demonstrate that the asthenosphere inflation has a smaller effect on the surface velocities in comparison with the uppermost reservoir inflation. We show that the pure buoyant uplift of magma bodies in combination with magma reservoir inflation can explain (varying) observed uplift rates at the example of the Yellowstone volcanic system.

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