Susan Anenberg

and 7 more

Background: Combustion-related nitrogen dioxide (NO2) air pollution is associated with pediatric asthma incidence. We estimated global surface NO2 concentrations consistent with the Global Burden of Disease Study for 1990-2019 at 1km resolution, and concentrations and attributable pediatric asthma incidence trends in 13,189 cities from 2000-2019. Methods: We scaled an existing surface annual average NO2 concentrations dataset for 2010-2012 from a land use regression model (based on 5,220 NO2 monitors in 58 countries and land use variables) to other years using NO2 column densities from satellite and reanalysis datasets. We applied these concentrations to epidemiologically-derived concentration-response factors, population, and baseline asthma rates to estimate NO2-attributable pediatric asthma incidence. Findings: We estimated that 1.85 million (95% uncertainty interval: 0.93 – 2.8 million) new pediatric asthma cases were attributable to NO2 globally in 2019, two-thirds of which occurred in urban areas. The fraction of pediatric asthma incidence that is attributable to NO2 in urban areas declined from 20% in 2000 to 16% in 2019. Urban attributable fractions dropped in High-income (-41%), Latin America/Caribbean (-16%), Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia (-13%), and Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania (-6%), and rose in South Asia (+23%), Sub-Saharan Africa (+11%), and North Africa and Middle East (+5%) regions. The importance of NO2 concentrations, pediatric population size, and asthma incidence rates in driving these changes differs regionally. Interpretation: Despite improvements in some regions, combustion-related NO2 pollution continues to be an important contributor to pediatric asthma incidence globally, particularly in cities. Funding: Health Effects Institute, NASA