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COVID-19 and non-communicable diseases: GMM/IV Panel VAR evidence from US states
  • Lotanna Emediegwu
Lotanna Emediegwu
Manchester Metropolitan University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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To analyse the endogenous connection between COVID-19 and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in US states. I employ a panel VAR approach to investigate the endogenous interactions between deaths due to covid (COV) and NCDs in US states. The NCDs considered are respiratory (RES) and circulatory (CIR) diseases. I use Arellano–Bond’s dynamic panel equations to supply estimates for the dynamic relationship between COVID-19 and NCDs. Thereafter, I estimate the orthogonalized impulse response functions (IRFs), which help isolate the response of a variable to an orthogonal shock in another variable of interest. The results show evidence of a significant positive relationship between mortality due to COVID-19 and NCDs. Most impacts peak after two weeks, corresponding with the latent period between covid infection and mortality. Besides, I find that while a positive shock to mortality from respiratory illnesses affects that from circulatory illnesses, the reverse is not the case. Lastly, these results differ by gender and are robust to several sensitivity checks, so large deviations are unexpected. The paper summarises the findings and proffers potential policies and interventions (e.g. providing cancer scanners in supermarkets) that could reduce the reinforcing effects of COVID-19 on NCDs.