Glenn Thompson

and 8 more

We attempt to construct a timeline of The Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha’apai eruption on 15 January 2022 through analyses of seismic, barometric, infrasonic, lightning, and satellite data. Satellite imagery at 04:00 UTC showed no ash in the air, but by 04:10 UTC, a plume had risen to 18 km. Over the next 20 minutes, the plume rose to 58 km. USGS determined that Mw5.8 volcanic earthquake of unknown mechanism had occurred at 04:14:45. Gravity waves were observed in satellite imagery, and barometric and infrasound stations around the world recorded ultra-low frequency pressure variations of more than 100 Pa, inducing ground-coupled airwaves around the globe, and meteo-tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea and Mediterranean Sea. Tsunami waves were recorded in coastal areas around the Pacific Ocean. From record sections, we determined speeds of 3.9 km/s and 299 m/s for the initial seismic and infrasound signals respectively, converging to an eruption onset time of ~0402 UTC ± 1 minute. The global pressure pulse has a speed of ~314 ± 3 m/s, consistent with theoretical models for Lamb waves (Bretherton, 1969), suggesting an origin time of ~0415 ± 2 minutes (consistent with the Mw5.8 volcanic earthquake, and sharp increases in lightning flash rates), and peaking around ~0429 ± 2 minutes. We suggest that Surtseyan volcanic activity commenced at ~04:02, building to a sub-Plinian eruption ~7 minutes later, before a phreato-Plinian eruption commenced at ~04:14. The peak Lamb wave amplitude at the closest station (757 km from HTHH) was 780 Pa. Assuming geometrical spreading like 1/√r (where r is the source-receiver distance), we estimate a lower bound of ~23 kPa for reduced pressure by extrapolation back to 1 km. Adding a near field term that decays like 1/r, we estimate an upper bound of 170 kPa for reduced pressure. Comparison of these values with those from other eruptions (McNutt et al. in this session) suggests the 15 January HTHH eruption was in the VEI 5-6 range.