Fault geometry is a key factor in controling the mechanics of faulting. However, there is currently limited theoretical knowledge regarding the effect of non-planar fault geometry on earthquake mechanics. Here, we address this gap by introducing an expansion of the relation between fault traction and slip, up to second order, relative to the deviation from a planar fault geometry. This expansion enables the separation of the effects of non-planarities from those of planar faults. This expansion is realised in the boundary integral equation, assuming a small fault slope. It provides an interpretation for the effect of complex fault geometry on fault traction, for any fault geometry and any slip distribution. Hence the results are also independent of the friction that applies on the fault. The findings confirm that fault geometry has a strong influence on in-plane faulting (mode II) by altering the normal traction on the fault and making it more resistant to slipping for any fault geometry. On the contrary, for out-of-plane faulting (mode III), fault geometry has a much smaller influence. Additionally, we analyse some singularities that arise for specific fault geometries often used in earthquake simulations and provide guidelines for their elimination. To conclude this study, we discuss the limits of the small strain approximation when non-planar faults are considered.

On 8 October 2023 UTC, significant tsunamis were observed around Japan without any major tsunamigenic earthquake, associated with a series of 14 successive minor earthquakes (mb = 4.5–5.4) near Sofugan in the Izu-Bonin islands. To examine the cause of this tsunami, we estimated the horizontal locations of the tsunami source and temporal history of the seafloor displacement, using the tsunami data recorded by the ocean-bottom pressure gauges > ~600 km away. Our results showed the main tsunami source was an uplift located at a caldera-like bathymetric feature near Sofugan, suggesting the involvement of caldera activity in the tsunami generation. The total seafloor uplift was larger than ~3 m, and the uplift amount of each event gradually increased over time, reflecting an accelerating occurrence of multiple sudden caldera uplifts within only a few hours.

Submarine volcano monitoring is vital for assessing volcanic hazards but challenging in remote and inaccessible environments. In the vicinity of Kita-Ioto Island, south of Japan, unusual M~5 non-double-couple volcanic earthquakes exhibited quasi-regular repetition near a submarine caldera. Following the 2008 earthquake, a distant ocean bottom pressure sensor recorded a distinct tsunami signal. In this study, we aim to find a source model of the tsunami-generating earthquake and quantify the pre-seismic magma overpressure within the caldera’s magma reservoir. Based on the earthquake’s atypical focal mechanism and efficient tsunami generation, we hypothesize that submarine trapdoor faulting occurred due to highly pressurized magma. To investigate this hypothesis, we establish a mechanical earthquake model that links pre-seismic magma overpressure to the size of the resulting trapdoor faulting, by considering stress interaction between a ring-fault system and a reservoir of the caldera. The model reproduces the observed tsunami waveform data. Our estimates indicate trapdoor faulting with large fault slip occurred in the critically stressed submarine caldera accommodating pre-seismic magma overpressure of ~10 MPa. The model infers that the earthquake partially reduced magma overpressure by 10–20%, indicating that the magmatic system maintained high stress levels even after the earthquake. Due to limited data, uncertainties persist, and alternative source geometries of trapdoor faulting could lead to estimate variations. These results suggest that magmatic systems beneath calderas are influenced much by intra-caldera fault systems. Monitoring and investigation of volcanic tsunamis and earthquakes help to obtain quantitative insights into submarine volcanism hidden under the ocean.

Stress accumulation and release in the crust remains poorly understood compared to that at the plate boundaries. Spatiotemporal variations in foreshock and aftershock activities can provide key constraints on time-dependent stress and deformation processes in the crust. The 2017 M5.2 Akita-Daisen intraplate earthquake in NE Japan was preceded by intense foreshock activity and triggered a strong sequence of aftershocks. We examine the spatiotemporal distributions of foreshocks and aftershocks and determine the coseismic slip distribution of the mainshock. Our results indicate that seismicity both before and after the mainshock was concentrated on a planar structure with N-S strike that dips steeply eastward. We observe a migration of foreshocks towards the mainshock rupture area, suggesting that foreshocks were triggered by aseismic phenomena preceding the mainshock. The mainshock rupture propagated toward the north, showing less slip beneath foreshock regions. The stress drop of the mainshock was 1.4 MPa and the radiation efficiency was 0.72. Aftershocks were intensely triggered near the edge of large coseismic slip regions where shear stress increased. The aftershock region expanded along the fault strike, which is attributed to the post-seismic aseismic slip of the mainshock. The postseismic slip possibly triggered repeating earthquakes with M ~3. We find that the foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and post-seismic slip released stress at different segments along the fault, which may reflect differences in frictional properties. Obtained results were similar to those observed for interplate earthquakes, which supports the hypothesis that the deformation processes along plate boundaries and crustal faults are fundamentally the same.

From interpreting data to scenario modeling of subduction events, numerical modeling has been crucial for studying tsunami generation by earthquakes. Seafloor instruments in the source region feature complex signals containing a superposition of seismic, ocean acoustic, and tsunami waves. Rigorous modeling is required to interpret these data and use them for tsunami early warning. However, previous studies utilize separate earthquake and tsunami models, with one-way coupling between them and approximations that might limit the applicability of the modeling technique. In this study, we compare four earthquake-tsunami modeling techniques, highlighting assumptions that affect the results, and discuss which techniques are appropriate for various applications. Most techniques couple a 3D Earth model with a 2D depth-averaged shallow water tsunami model. Assuming the ocean is incompressible and that tsunami propagation is negligible over the earthquake duration leads to technique (1), which equates earthquake seafloor uplift to initial tsunami sea surface height. For longer duration earthquakes, it is appropriate to follow technique (2), which uses time-dependent earthquake seafloor velocity as a time-dependent forcing in the tsunami mass balance. Neither technique captures ocean acoustic waves, motivating newer techniques that capture the seismic and ocean acoustic response as well as tsunamis. Saito et al. (2019) propose technique (3), which solves the 3D elastic and acoustic equations to model the earthquake rupture, seismic wavefield, and response of a compressible ocean without gravity. Then, sea surface height is used as a forcing term in a tsunami simulation. A superposition of the earthquake and tsunami solutions provides the complete wavefield, with one-way coupling. The complete wavefield is also captured in technique (4), which utilizes a fully-coupled solid Earth and ocean model with gravity (Lotto & Dunham, 2015). This technique, recently incorporated into the 3D code SeisSol, simultaneously solves earthquake rupture, seismic waves, and ocean response (including gravity). Furthermore, we show how technique (3) follows from (4) subject to well-justified approximations.

Quantifying the stress distribution or finding mechanically coupled areas on the plate interface is fundamentally important for conjecturing megathrust earthquakes that may occur in the future. Kinematically coupled areas, or slip deficit distributions, on plate interfaces were commonly estimated by geodetic-data analyses. However, mechanically coupled areas are not identical to the kinematically coupled areas. The present study develops an inversion method to estimate thestress rate distribution as mechanically coupled areas. We apply this method to the Nankai trough subduction zone, southwestern Japan to detect mechanically coupled areas. Some of the estimated coupled areas correspond to the rupture areas of historical earthquakes. Others are in a deeper part, which may release the stress as aseismic slip. We then construct a rupture scenario that can occur in the Nankai trough in the future based on the estimated mechanical coupling,assuming that an effective stress accumulation period is 100 years. The scenario consists of a foreshock of MW 8.0 followed by an afterslip of MW 7.9 and a mainshock of MW 8.2. Although the moment magnitude of the afterslip is similar to the foreshock, the energy released by the foreshock is significantly larger than the afterslip because the stress drop of the afterslip is small.

Recent developments in ocean-bottom pressure gauge (OBP) networks have enabled us to continuously monitor various waves in the ocean. On 1 July, 2020, an OBP network, S-net, recorded tsunami-like pressure changes, although no earthquake was reported. These waves were well explained by a numerical simulation supposing a northward-moving atmospheric low pressure system with a maximum pressure depression of −0.5 ± 0.1 hPa and an apparent speed of 100–110 m/s. This simulation suggested that these waves were meteotsunamis. The simulation also suggested that the maximum amplitudes of the sea-surface height of ~ 2 cm were up to ~30% larger than those expected from the observed pressure if we do not consider the effect of the atmospheric pressure change. Our study showed that the S-net can detect the generation and propagation of meteotsunamis, which could not be achieved in the past when OBP networks with only a few stations were available.

Although most tsunamis are generated by the sea-bottom deformation caused by earthquakes, some tsunamis are excited by sea-surface pressure changes. This study theoretically investigated tsunamis generated by sea-surface pressure changes and derived the solutions in 3-D space, whereas most past studies employed 2-D equations. Using the solutions, we simulated and visualized the tsunami generation by a growing pressure change. Negative pressure change made the sea surface uplifted inside the source region and negative leading waves were radiated from the source region. We also simulated the tsunami generation when the pressure change at the sea surface moves with almost the same speed as the tsunami propagation velocity. The tsunami height increased with increasing the travel distance including the dispersion effects. The 3-D solutions in this study, including the vertical velocity distribution, indicate that both the tsunami height and the sea-surface pressure changes contribute to the ocean-bottom pressure changes, suggesting the difficulty in measuring the tsunami height with ocean-bottom pressure observations. When the pressure change source was characterized by short-wavelength components, the dispersion increased tsunami height more extensively than the non-dispersive tsunamis. The 3-D solutions are necessary for describing the tsunami generation where the long-wave approximations are not applicable in open oceans.

Recent studies have shown that ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPs) can record seismic waves in addition to tsunamis and seafloor permanent displacements, even if they are installed inside the focal area where the signals are extremely large. We developed a method to extract dynamic ground motion waveforms from near-field OBP data consisting of a complex mixture of various signals, based on an inversion analysis along with a theory of tsunami generation. We applied this method to the OBP data of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. We successfully extracted the low-frequency vertical seismograms inside the focal area (f < ~0.05 Hz), although those of the Mw ~9.0 megathrust earthquake had never previously been reported. The seismograms suggested two dominant energy releases around the hypocenter. The seismic wave signals recorded by the near-field OBP will be important not only to reveal earthquake ruptures and tsunami generation processes but also to conduct real-time tsunami forecasts.