During geomagnetic storms relativistic outer radiation belt electron flux exhibits large variations on rapid time scales of minutes to days. Many competing acceleration and loss processes contribute to the dynamic variability of the radiation belts; however, distinguishing the relative contribution of each mechanism remains a major challenge as they often occur simultaneously and over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales. In this study, we develop a new comprehensive model for the storm-time radiation belt dynamics by incorporating electron wave-particle interactions with parallel propagating whistler mode waves into our global test-particle model of the outer belt. Electron trajectories are evolved through the electromagnetic fields generated from the Multiscale Atmosphere Geospace Environment (MAGE) global geospace model. Pitch angle scattering and energization of the test particles are derived from analytical expressions for quasi-linear diffusion coefficients that depend directly on the magnetic field and density from the magnetosphere simulation. Using a case study of the 17 March 2013 geomagnetic storm, we demonstrate that resonance with lower band chorus waves can produce rapid relativistic flux enhancements during the main phase of the storm. While electron loss from the outer radiation belt is dominated by loss through the magnetopause, wave-particle interactions drive significant atmospheric precipitation. We also show that the storm-time magnetic field and cold plasma density evolution produces strong, local variations of the magnitude and energy of the wave-particle interactions and is critical to fully capturing the dynamic variability of the radiation belts caused by wave-particle interactions.

Near the inner edge of the plasma sheet, where the geomagnetic field transitions from dipolar to tail-like, very low values of the northward component of the field (Bz) are known to be occasionally exhibited, particularly in the substorm growth phase. It has been suggested that this may be a signature of a localized magnetic field dip, which are notoriously difficult to observe in situ. The existence of these localized minima is significant as they would be ballooning-interchange (BI) unstable. Previous work has investigated BI instability using localized particle-in-cell simulations with an imposed Bz minimum as an initial condition. However, evidence of the existence of localized Bz minima and BI instability at their tailward edges has been very limited in self-consistent global magnetosphere simulations. In this presentation, we demonstrate that the elusive nature of the instability has been due to the insufficient resolution of previous simulations. We present a highly-resolved global magnetosphere simulation, using our newly developed code Gamera. In a synthetic substorm simulation we demonstrate the formation of a Bz minimum localized in radius, 8-10 Re from Earth. The region becomes BI unstable in the substorm growth phase, leading to the formation of earthward and azimuthally propagating bubbles, distinct from those that form further downtail and become bursty bulk flows. These bubbles generate field-aligned currents and optical auroral signatures, similar to those observed on the ground and from space. We discuss the physical mechanisms for the formation of the localized Bz minimum by magnetic flux depletion, analyze the nature of the instability, characterize both magnetospheric and ionospheric signatures of the unstable region, and compare them with those observed.

An empirical model of radiation belt relativistic electrons (m = 560–875 MeV G–1 and I = 0.088–0.14 RE G0.5) with average energy ~ 1.3 MeV is developed. The model inputs solar wind parameters (velocity, density, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) |B|, Bz, and By), magnetospheric state parameters (SYM-H, AL), and L*. The model outputs radiation belt electron phase space density (PSD). The model is operational from L* = 3 to 6.5. The model is constructed with neural network assisted by information theory. Information theory is used to select the most effective and relevant solar wind and magnetospheric input parameters plus their lag times based on their information transfer to the PSD. Based on the test set, the model prediction efficiency (PE) increases with increasing L*, ranging from –0.043 at L* = 3 to 0.76 at L* = 6.5. The model PE is near 0 at L* = 3–4 because at this L* range, the solar wind and magnetospheric parameters transfer little information to the PSD. This baseline model complements well a class of empirical models that input data from Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Using solar wind observations at L1 and magnetospheric index (AL and SYM-H) models solely driven by solar wind, the radiation belt model can be used to forecast PSD 30–60 min ahead.