Assessing space weather modeling capability is a key element in improving existing models and developing new ones. In order to track improvement of the models and investigate impacts of forcing, from the lower atmosphere below and from the magnetosphere above, on the performance of ionosphere-thermosphere models, we expand our previous assessment for 2013 March storm event [Shim et al., 2018]. In this study, we evaluate new simulations from upgraded models (Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (CTIPe) model version 4.1 and Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) version 21.11) and from NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM-X) version 2.2 including 8 simulations in the previous study. A simulation of NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model version 2 (TIE-GCM 2) is also included for comparison with WACCM-X. TEC and foF2 changes from quiet-time background are considered to evaluate the model performance on the storm impacts. For evaluation, we employ 4 skill scores: Correlation coefficient (CC), root-mean square error (RMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum percentage changes (Yield), and timing error(TE). It is found that the models tend to underestimate the storm-time enhancements of foF2 (F2-layer critical frequency) and TEC (Total Electron Content) and to predict foF2 and/or TEC better in the North America but worse in the Southern Hemisphere. The ensemble simulation for TEC is comparable to results from a data assimilation model (Utah State University-Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurement (USU-GAIM)) with differences in skill score less than 3% and 6% for CC and RMSE, respectively.

Global-scale Observations of Limb and Disk (GOLD) disk measurements of far ultraviolet molecular nitrogen band emissions are used to retrieve column integrated disk temperatures (Tdisk), which are representative of the lower-and-middle thermosphere. The present work develops a new approach to assimilate the Tdisk in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphereâ\euro?ionosphere eXtension (WACCMX) using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Nine days of data,1 to 9 November 2018, are assimilated. Analysis state variables such as thermospheric effective temperature (Teff, airglow layer integrated temperature), ratio of atomic oxygen to molecular nitrogen column densities (O/N2), and column electron content are compared with a control simulation that is only constrained up to ~50 km. It is observed that assimilation of the GOLD Tdisk improves the analysis states when compared with the control simulation. The analysis and model states, particularly, Teff, O/N2, and Electron Column Density (ECD) are also compared with their measurement counterparts for a validation of the assimilation. Teff and O/N2 are compared with GOLD Tdisk and O/N2. While, the ECD is compared with ground based Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements from Global Navigational Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) improvements in Teff and O/N2 are about 10.8% and 22.6%, respectively. The RMSE improvement in analyses ECD is about 10% compared to control simulation.

The present investigation evaluates the assimilation of synthetic data which has properties similar to actual Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) level-2 (L2) and other conventional lower atmospheric observations. The lower atmospheric and GOLD L2 temperature (Tdisk) are assimilated in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere-ionosphere eXtension (WACCMX) using Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). It is found that inclusion of the GOLD Tdisk improves the forecast root mean square error (RMSE) and bias by 5% and 71%. When compared to lower atmosphere only assimilation the improvements in RMSE and bias are 20% and 94%. An investigation of the global DW1 and local diurnal tidal characteristics shows that inclusion of the GOLD temperatures improves the DW1 by about 8% and diurnal tide by more than 17%. The percentage improvement in tides is higher at lower thermospheric altitudes. Considerable improvements in the model state are also seen at times and locations where there are no GOLD observations available. These results and the background data assimilation procedure are presented here, which demonstrates that GOLD thermospheric temperature is an excellent dataset which can be used for thermospheric assimilation studies and operational purposes.

Data assimilation schemes with empirical background models of the ionosphere are already in operational use. However such methods suffer during disturbed conditions when large gradients are present and are moving relatively fast through the modeled domain. Also, such schemes have limited forecasting capabilities. In order to improve disturbed conditions modeling, more sophisticated assimilation schemes based on sparse measurements for the coupled thermosphere ionosphere system are needed. We have implemented an ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) for the Thermosphere-Ionosphere (TI) system. We used the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe) model as the background for an assimilation scheme and created the Thermosphere Ionosphere Data Assimilation (TIDA) software package. We published our first paper discussing neutral mass density assimilation during quiet geomagnetic conditions in Space Weather in 2018. In this paper we present results from experiments during the 2003 Halloween Storm, 27-31 October 2003, under very disturbed (K$_p$ = 9) conditions while assimilating GRACE-A and B, and CHAMP neutral density measurements. TIDA was able to simulate this disturbed period without using the L1 solar wind measurements which were contaminated by solar energetic protons, by estimating the model inputs from the density measurements. TIDA is being prepared to offer specification and short term forecasts of neutral density for satellite drag and debris collision avoidance for space traffic management. We also plan to offer long term (solar cycle length), average neutral density estimation for satellite fleet management.

Themospheric conditions during a minor geomagnetic event of 3 and 4 February 2022 has been investigated using disk temperature (T$_{disk}$) observations from Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission and model simulations. GOLD observed that the T$_{disk}$ increases by more than 60 K during the storm event when compared with pre-storm quiet days. A comparison of the T$_{disk}$ with effective temperatures (i.e., a weighted average based on airglow emission layer) from Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter radar version 2 (MSIS2) and Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment (MAGE) models shows that MAGE outperforms MSIS2 during this particular event. MAGE underestimates the T$_{eff}$ by about 2\%, whereas MSIS2 underestimates it by 7\%. As temperature enhancements lead to an expansion of the thermosphere and resulting density changes, the value of the temperature enhancement observed by GOLD can be utilized to find a GOLD equivalent MSIS2 (GOLD-MSIS) simulation $\textendash$ from a set of MSIS2 runs obtained by varying geomagnetic ap index values. From the MSIS2 runs we find that an ap value of 116 nT produces a T$_{eff}$ perturbation that matches with the GOLD T$_{disk}$ enhancement. Note that during this storm the highest value of the 3 hr cadence ap was 56 nT. From the MSIS-GOLD run we found that the thermospheric density enhancement varies with altitude from 15\% (at 150 km) to 80\% (at 500 km). Independent simulations from the MAGE model also show a comparable enhancement in neutral density. These results suggest that even a modest storm could impact the thermospheric densities significantly.

Global-scale Observations of Limb and Disk (GOLD) disk measurements of far ultraviolet molecular nitrogen band emissions are used to retrieve temperatures (T$_{disk}$), which are representative of lower thermospheric altitudes. The present investigation studies the response of lower thermospheric temperatures to geomagnetic activities of varying magnitudes. In this study, it has been observed that T$_{disk}$ increases over all latitudes in response to enhanced geomagnetic activity. The increase in temperature is proportional to the strength of the geomagnetic activity and is greater at higher latitudes. Temperature enhancements vary from 10s to 100s of Kelvins from low- to mid-latitudes. Local time behavior shows that pre-noon enhancements in temperatures, during relatively stronger geomagnetic activities, are greater compared to afternoon, which can be attributed to the combined action of daytime dynamics and geomagnetic forcing. This study thus demonstrates the utility of GOLD T$_{disk}$ measurements investigating the effects of dynamical and external forcings in the thermosphere.