Earthquake surface deformation provides key constraints on the geometry, kinematics, displacements, and complexity of fault rupture. However, deriving these precise characteristics from past earthquakes is complicated by a lack of detailed knowledge of landforms before the earthquake and how the landform has since been modified. The 1987 Mw 6.6 Edgecumbe earthquake in the northern Taupō volcanic zone in New Zealand represents a moderate-magnitude earthquake with complicated surface rupture that occurred before widespread high-resolution topographic data were available. We use historical aerial photos to build pre- and post-earthquake digital surface models using structure-from-motion techniques. By differencing the two surface models, we more definitively measure discrete and distributed deformation from this earthquake and compare the effectiveness of the technique to traditional field- and lidar-based studies. We identified most fault traces recognized by field mapping in 1987, mapped new traces not recorded in the field, and take denser, detailed remote slip measurements with a vertical separation resolution of ~0.3 m. Our maximum and average vertical separation measurements on the Edgecumbe fault trace (2.5 ± 0.3 m and 1.2 m, respectively), are similar to field-based maximum and recalculated averages of 2.4 m and 1.1 m, respectively. Importantly, this technique is able to discern between new fault scarps and pre-existing fault scarps better than field techniques or lidar-based measurements alone. Results from this approach can be used to refine estimated subsurface fault geometries and slip distributions at depth, and here is used to investigate potential magmatic-tectonic stress trigging in the northern Taupō volcanic zone.

Tim Naish

and 17 more

Anticipating and managing the impacts of sea-level rise for nations astride active tectonic margins requires rates of sea surface elevation change in relation to coastal land elevation to be understood. Vertical land motion (VLM) can either exacerbate or reduce sea-level changes with impacts varying significantly along a coastline. Determining rate, pattern, and variability of VLM near coasts leads to a direct improvement of location-specific relative sea level (RSL) estimates. Here, we utilise vertical velocity field from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data, calibrated with campaign and continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), to determine the VLM for the entire coastline of New Zealand. Guided by existing knowledge of the seismic cycle, the VLM data infer long-term, interseismic rates of land surface deformation. We build probabilistic RSL projections using the Framework for Assessing Changes to Sea-level (FACTS) from IPCC Assessment Report 6 and ingest local VLM data to produce RSL projections at 7435 sites, thereby enhancing spatial coverage that was previously limited to tide gauges. We present ensembles of probability distributions of RSL for medium confidence climatic processes for each scenario to 2150 and low confidence processes to 2300. For regions where land subsidence is occurring at rates >2mm yr-1 VLM makes a significant contribution to RSL projections for all scenarios out 2150. Beyond 2150, for higher emissions scenarios, the land ice contribution to global sea level dominates. We discuss the planning implications of RSL projections, where timing of threshold exceedance for coastal inundation can be brought forward by decades.