Jingjing Tian

and 8 more

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are an important component of our hydrologic cycle as they produce prolific rainfall in the tropics and mid-latitudes. Recent advancements in high-resolution modeling show promise in representing MCSs in regional climate simulations. However, how well do these models represent the complex interactions between convective dynamics and microphysics in MCSs remain unknown. In this study, we take advantage of observations collected during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud (MC3E) experiment to evaluate multi-scale aspects of MCSs in convection-permitting WRF model. We conducted three sets of month-long simulations with Morrison and P3 (1-ice and 2-ice categories) microphysics, respectively, at 1.8 km grid-spacing over the Southern Great Plains. MCSs in observations and simulations were tracked using a newly developed FLEXTRKR algorithm. About 15-20 MCSs were identified in the simulations, consistent with observations. All three simulations underestimate observed monthly total precipitation which are primarily from MCSs, suggesting the biases might be caused by large-scale forcings rather than microphysics. All simulated MCSs overestimate convective area and precipitation amount but underestimate stratiform rain area and precipitation. Simulated MCS convective updraft intensities are comparable with radar retrievals for moderate depths of convective cores, but are too strong for deep cores. The two P3 simulations have smaller mean ice mass aloft but more frequent heavy convective rain rate at the surface than the simulation with Morrison, agreeing better with observations (Figure 1). Simulated stratiform area ice mass in the upper troposphere are generally larger than radar retrievals, but the P3 2-ice category has relatively smaller bias. We will also use polarimetric radar 3-D rain water retrieval to further evaluate the vertical evolution of rainfall to explain differences in simulated surface precipitation.

Andreas Franz Prein

and 4 more

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the main source of precipitation in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes and are responsible for high-impact weather worldwide. Studies showed that deficiencies in simulating mid-latitude MCSs in state-of-the-art climate models can be alleviated by kilometer-scale models. However, whether these models can also improve tropical MCSs and weather we can find model settings that perform well in both regions is understudied. We take advantage of high-quality MCS observations collected over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facilities in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) and the Amazon basin near Manaus (MAO) to evaluate a perturbed physics ensemble of simulated MCSs with 4\,km horizontal grid spacing. A new model evaluation method is developed that enables to distinguish biases stemming from spatiotemporal displacements of MCSs from biases in their reflectivity and cloud shield. Amazon MCSs are similarly well simulated across these evaluation metrics than SGP MCSs despite the challenges anticipated from weaker large-scale forcing in the tropics. Generally, SGP MCSs are more sensitive to the choice of model microphysics, while Amazon cases are more sensitive to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Although our tested model physics combinations had strengths and weaknesses, combinations that performed well for SGP simulations result in worse results in the Amazon basin and vice versa. However, we identified model settings that perform well at both locations, which include the Thompson and Morrison microphysics coupled with the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme and the Thompson scheme coupled with the Mellorâ\euro“Yamadaâ\euro“Janjic (MYJ) PBL scheme.