The long-term net sink of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the northern permafrost region is projected to weaken or shift under climate change. But large uncertainties remain, even on present-day GHG budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling, process-based models) and top-down budgets (atmospheric inversion models) of the main GHGs (CO2, CH4, and N2O) and lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000-2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land to atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs compared to top-down atmospheric inversions. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches respectively show a net sink of CO2 in natural ecosystems (-31 (-667, 559) and -587 (-862, -312), respectively) but sources of CH4 (38 (23, 53) and 15 (11, 18) Tg CH4-C yr-1) and N2O (0.6 (0.03, 1.2) and 0.09 (-0.19, 0.37) Tg N2O-N yr-1) in natural ecosystems. Assuming equal weight to bottom-up and top-down budgets and including anthropogenic emissions, the combined GHG budget is a source of 147 (-492, 759) Tg CO2-Ceq yr-1 (GWP100). A net CO2 sink in boreal forests and wetlands is offset by CO2 emissions from inland waters and CH4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller additional warming from N2O emissions. Priorities for future research include representation of inland waters in process-based models and compilation of process-model ensembles for CH4 and N2O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more in-situ flux observations and improved resolution in upscaling.

Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics, as well as limited data availability. We developed a Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long-term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable datasets with algorithms representing terrestrial C-cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality-controlled C flux datasets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern U.S. rangelands, to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass-shrub mixture, and grass-tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R2 > 0.6, RMSE < 390 g C m-2) than net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) (R2 > 0.4, RMSE < 180 g C m-2), and captured the spatial variability of surface SOC stocks with R2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Our RCTM simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Regression analysis identified slope, soil texture, and climate factors as the main controls on model-predicted C sequestration rate. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long-term network-based monitoring of rangeland vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks.

The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O across the terrestrial permafrost region using databases of more than 1000 in-situ flux measurements and a land cover-based ecosystem flux upscaling approach for the period 2000-2020. Estimates indicate that the permafrost region emitted a mean annual flux of 0.36 (-620, 652) Tg CO2-C y-1, 38 (21, 53) Tg CH4-C y-1, and 0.62 (0.03, 1.2) Tg N2O-N y-1 to the atmosphere throughout the period. While the region was a net source of CH4 and N2O, the CO2 budget was near neutral with large uncertainties. Terrestrial ecosystems remained a CO2 sink, but emissions from fire disturbances and inland waters largely offset the sink in vegetated ecosystems. Including lateral fluxes, the permafrost region was a net source of C and N, releasing 136 (-517, 821) Tg C y-1 and 3.2 (1.9, 4.8) Tg N y-1. Large uncertainty ranges in these estimates point to a need for further expansion of monitoring networks, continued data synthesis efforts, and better integration of field observations, remote sensing data, and ecosystem models to constrain the contemporary net GHG budgets of the permafrost region and track their future trajectory.

Authors: Jennifer D. Watts1; Stefano Potter1; Brendan M. Rogers1, Anna-Maria Virkkala1, Greg Fiske1, Kyle A. Arndt1, Arden Burrell1, Kevin Butler2, Bob Gerlt2, John Grayson2, Tatiana A. Shestakova3,4, Jinyang Du5, Youngwook Kim6, Frans-Jan Parmentier7, Susan M. Natali11 Woodwell Climate Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA, 02540.2 Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri). 380 New York Street, Redlands, CA, 92373.3 Department of Agricultural and Forest Science and Engineering, University of Lleida, Av. Alcalde Rovira Roure, 191, Lleida, Spain, 25198.4 Joint Research Unit CTFC–AGROTECNIO–CERCA, Av. Alcalde Rovira Roure, 191, Lleida, Spain, 25198.5 Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group (NTSG), ISB 415, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, MT, 59812.6 Department of Biology, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 15551.7 Center for Biogeochemistry of the Anthropocene, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, N-0315, Oslo, Norway.

The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O across the terrestrial permafrost region using databases of more than 1000 in-situ flux measurements and a land cover-based ecosystem flux upscaling approach for the period 2000-2020. Estimates indicate that the permafrost region emitted a mean annual flux of 0.36 (-620, 652) Tg CO2-C y-1, 38 (21, 53) Tg CH4-C y-1, and 0.62 (0.03, 1.2) Tg N2O-N y-1 to the atmosphere throughout the period. While the region was a net source of CH4 and N2O, the CO2 budget was near neutral with large uncertainties. Terrestrial ecosystems remained a CO2 sink, but emissions from fire disturbances and inland waters largely offset the sink in vegetated ecosystems. Including lateral fluxes, the permafrost region was a net source of C and N, releasing 136 (-517, 821) Tg C y-1 and 3.2 (1.9, 4.8) Tg N y-1. Large uncertainty ranges in these estimates point to a need for further expansion of monitoring networks, continued data synthesis efforts, and better integration of field observations, remote sensing data, and ecosystem models to constrain the contemporary net GHG budgets of the permafrost region and track their future trajectory.

In light of the magnitude and pace of the environmental changes in the northern permafrost zone (NPZ) and their feedbacks to climate, contemporary, accurate and quantitative ecological forecasting has never been so paramount to the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Yet, uncertainties associated with carbon (C) projections in the NPZ remain the largest to projections of global C budget and climate. While there are persisting lacks of data documenting important and emerging soil and vegetation dynamics in the NPZ, the volume, variety and accessibility of observational data in the NPZ has grown exponentially over the past decades and significantly improved our understanding of terrestrial C dynamic. Yet, a lag persists between large availability of historical, new and iterative data collections and the capacity of terrestrial biosphere models to fully incorporate this information, limiting advances in reducing the uncertainty of ecological forecasting in the NPZ. In this new project, we are developing the Arctic Carbon Monitoring and Prediction System (ACMPS), a data assimilation system that will use the information from field observations from ecological networks, remote sensing data and ecological modeling to reduce the uncertainty of the terrestrial carbon balance in the NPZ. The ACMPS will be coupling model development and testing, data-assimilation techniques and near-term forecasting capacity to improve the accuracy of historical and future simulations of ecosystem permafrost and C dynamics across the NPZ. We will present the structure and workflow of the ACMPS, as well as preliminary assessment of model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of soil and vegetation carbon fluxes, using a terrestrial biosphere model specifically developed to represent permafrost, vegetation and carbon dynamics in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Plain-language Summary We are presenting the Arctic Carbon Monitoring and Prediction System, a data assimilation system that uses field observation, remote sensing data and ecological modeling to reduce the uncertainty of the terrestrial carbon balance in the northern permafrost zone, and to better inform development of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.