The COVID-19 global pandemic and associated government lockdowns dramatically altered human activity, providing a window into how changes in individual behavior, enacted en masse, impact atmospheric composition. The resulting reductions in anthropogenic activity represent an unprecedented event that yields a glimpse into a future where emissions to the atmosphere are reduced. While air pollutants and greenhouse gases share many common anthropogenic sources, there is a sharp difference in the response of their atmospheric concentrations to COVID-19 emissions changes due in large part to their different lifetimes. Here, we discuss two key takeaways from modeling and observational studies. First, despite dramatic declines in mobility and associated vehicular emissions, the atmospheric growth rates of greenhouse gases were not slowed. Second, it demonstrated empirically that the response of atmospheric composition to emissions changes is heavily modulated by factors including carbon cycle feedbacks to CH4 and CO2, background pollutant levels, the timing and location of emissions changes, and climate feedbacks on air quality.

Top-down estimates of CO2 fluxes are typically constrained by either surface-based or space-based CO2 observations. Both of these measurement types have spatial and temporal gaps in observational coverage that can lead to biases in inferred fluxes. Assimilating both surface-based and space-based measurements concurrently in a flux inversion framework improves observational coverage and reduces sampling biases. This study examines the consistency of flux constraints provided by these different observations and the potential to combine them by performing a series of six-year (2010–2015) CO2 flux inversions. Flux inversions are performed assimilating surface-based measurements from the in situ and flask network, measurements from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and space-based measurements from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), or all three datasets combined. Combining the datasets results in more precise flux estimates for sub-continental regions relative to any of the datasets alone. Combining the datasets also improves the accuracy of the posterior fluxes, based on reduced root-mean-square differences between posterior-flux-simulated CO2 and aircraft-based CO2 over midlatitude regions (0.35–0.50~ppm) in comparison to GOSAT (0.39–0.57~ppm), TCCON (0.52–0.63~ppm), or in situ and flask measurements (0.45–0.53~ppm) alone. These results suggest that surface-based and GOSAT measurements give complementary constraints on CO2 fluxes in the northern extratropics and can be combined in flux inversions to improve observational coverage. This stands in contrast with many earlier attempts to combine these datasets and suggests that improvements in the NASA Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) retrieval algorithm have significantly improved the consistency of space-based and surface-based flux constraints.

Since the 1960s, carbon cycling in the high-latitude northern forest (HLNF) has experienced dramatic changes: most of the forest is greening and net carbon uptake from the atmosphere has increased. During the same time period, the COseasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) has almost doubled. Disentangling complex processes that drive these changes has been challenging. In this study, we substitute spatial sensitivity to temperature for time to quantify the impact of temperature increase on Gross Primary Production (GPP), total ecosystem respiration (TER), the fraction of Photosynthetic Active Radiation (fPAR), and the resulted contribution of these changes in amplifying the COSCA over the HLNF since 1960s. We use the spatial heterogeneity of GPP inferred from solar-induced chlorophyll Fluorescence in combination with net ecosystem exchange (NEE) inferred from column COobservations made between 2015 and 2017 from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory -2. We find that three quarters of the spatial variations in GPP and in the fPAR absorbed by the HLNF can be explained by the spatial variation in the growing season mean temperature (GSMT). The long term hindcast captures both the magnitude and spatial variability of the trends in observed fPAR. We estimate that between 1960 and 2010, the increase in GSMT enhanced both GPP and the SCA of NEE by ~20%. The calculated enhancement of NEE due to increase in GSMT contributes 56–72% of the trend in the CO SCA at high latitudes, much larger than simulations by most biogeochemical models.