Dimitar Ouzounov

and 1 more

We present approach based on physically substantiated short-term precursor’s selection to provide the real-time multiparameter monitoring having as a purpose the short-term forecast of earthquakes. Three main principles should be fulfilled: 1. We register natural phenomena for which we have multi-year experience demonstrating their connection with the earthquake preparation process 2. All these phenomena have very high statistical confidence in relation to post-phenomena earthquake occurrence 3. We have the physical explanation of these anomalous phenomena generation and their interrelation within the framework of earthquake preparation process. It is important to note that precursors are registered in different geospheres (lithosphere, atmosphere, ionosphere and magnetosphere) what confirms the fact of geospheres coupling during the earthquake preparation period. For the first time we included in consideration the role of triggers and their relationship with precursors. One of the well confirmed triggers is the Space weather evens changing the global atmospheric circulation. The arising large-scale irregularities of atmospheric pressure may serve as earthquake triggers while their linear borders coincide with the active tectonic fault. Another recently revealed effect is existence of earthquake retarders when earthquake happens later (up to month) in comparison with our procedure of earthquake time determination. Complications created by triggers and retarders in developed procedure of short-term earthquake forecast should be resolved in future development of our research. All these ideas are presented in the book which just published by Institute of Physics (IOP) and has the same title as abstract. This work was supported by RSF (project No 18-12-00441)

Dimitar Ouzounov

and 4 more

We present an interdisciplinary study of observations of pre-earthquake processes associated with major earthquakes based on integrating space and ground- data. Recent large magnitude earthquakes in Asia and Europe have emphasized the various observations of multiple types of pre-earthquake signals recorded either on the ground or from space. Four physical parameters were measured from ground and satellite and used in our simulation models: 1) Ground Radon variation; 2) Outgoing Long-Wavelength Radiation (OLR) obtained from NPOES, NASA/AQUA) on top of the atmosphere (TOA); 3) Atmospheric Chemical Potential (ACP) obtained from NASA assimilation models and; 4) electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). For this analysis we selected six large earthquakes from the last decade with differing geographic and seismo-tectonics regions: (1) M9.3, Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra, Dec 26, 2004; (2) M9.0 Great Tohoku Earthquake, Japan, March 11, 2011; (3) and (4) M7.8 and M7.3 Gorkha, Nepal, 2015; (5); M8.2 Tehuantepec, Mexico, September 8, 2017 and; (6) M7.1, Puebla central Mexico earthquakes, September 19, 2017. Our preliminary results indicate an enhancements of radon (about a week to ten days prior) coincident (with some delay) with an increase in the atmospheric chemical potential measured near the epicenter from both satellite and subsequently with an increase of outgoing infrared radiation (OLR) observed on the TOA from NOAA/NASA (a week in advance). Finally GPS/TEC data indicate an increase of electron concentration 1-4 days before the earthquakes. Although the radon variations and some of satellite OLR anomalies were observed far (>2000km) from the epicenter areas the anomalies were always inside the estimates of the Dobrovolsky-Bowman area of preparation. We examined the possible correlation between magnitude and the spatial size of earthquake preparation zone in the framework of the Lithosphere –Atmosphere -Ionosphere Coupling hypothesis. The reliable detection of pre-earthquake signals for both sea and land earthquakes was possible only by integrating satellite and ground observations. A detail summary of our approach to this study of pre-earthquake research has just been published as AGU/Wiley Geophysical Monograph Series No. 234.