The considerable challenges of accessing unpredictable events at remote seafloor locations make submarine eruptions difficult to study in real time. The serendipitous discovery of two persistently active sites (NW Rota-1 in the Mariana arc, at ~550 m, and West Mata in the NE Lau basin at ~1200 m) resulted in multi-year, multi-parameter studies that included water column plume surveys and direct (ROV) observations. Intense magmatic-hydrothermal plumes rose buoyantly above both sites, while deep particle plume layers, dominated by fine ash and devoid of hydrothermal tracers, were found dispersing laterally on isopycnal surfaces at variable depths below the eruptive vents and above the seafloor. The presence or absence of deep ash plumes was directly correlated with explosive activity or quiescence, respectively. An estimated 0.4-14.6 x 105 m3/yr of fine ash entered the water column surrounding these volcanoes and remained suspended at distances exceeding 10’s of km. We show that deep ash plume layers in the water column are a common feature of explosive submarine eruptions at other sites as well, and that they demonstrate a syn-eruptive mode of transport for fine ash that will result in deposition as “hidden” cryptotephra or fallout deposits in marine sediments at distances greater than previously predicted. Cruise FK171110 extended the time series of observations at West Mata, and resulted in discovery of new lava flows emplaced after September 2012, with one constrained between March 2016 and November 2017. ROV dives confirmed that West Mata was quiescent during this expedition, but widespread deep ash plumes were present. Turbidity in the deep ash plumes decreased by 80% over a 25-day period, with an average loss of 3% (0.15-0.6 g/m2) per day, suggesting the eruption that formed the 2016-2017 eruptive deposits had occurred within 8-121 days prior to the FK171110 expedition. Future studies of submarine volcanic processes will depend on improved exploration and event detection capabilities. In addition to recognizing the characteristic hydrothermal event plumes rising into the water column above actively erupting sites, widespread ash plumes dispersing at depths deeper than eruptive vents can also be diagnostic of ongoing, or very recent, eruptions. We infer the eruptive status at other sites based on these criteria.

Measurements of ground tilt are a critical geodetic tool for monitoring active volcanoes because they provide multidimensional data that can resolve complex deformation signals. We are developing a Self-Calibrating Tilt Accelerometer (SCTA) for use in the marine environment and present results from two deployments: on land at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Cecil and Ida Green Piñon Flat Observatory and on the seafloor at Axial Seamount on the Juan de Fuca Ridge. The SCTA utilizes a Quartz Sensor Solutions triaxial accelerometer on a gimbal system to periodically rotate the horizontal channels into the vertical to calibrate against the local g vector, achieving high precision and stability within 1 microradian. The SCTA tiltmeter has the added benefit of simultaneously measuring ground accelerations and recording seismic signals. We compare the SCTA performance at the center of the summit caldera at Axial Seamount against a co-located Jewell Instruments LILY tiltmeter on the OOI Cabled Array. The tilt measurements in one direction are consistent, but the data suggest that the deployment platform for the SCTA may be settling in the other direction. We are using data from the ensemble of 4 cabled pressure sensors and 5 tilt sensors at Axial, including the SCTA, to study its inflation behavior since its eruption in 2015. We have identified several significant, cm-scale deflation events of durations of tens of days. The tilt and relative elevations of instrument sites are asymmetric about their turning points, suggesting a more complex mechanism than a simple inflation reversal. We are conducting forward modeling of the deformation signals to determine if the geodetic signals are consistent with differential slip rates, normalized to the rate of inflation/deflation, on the caldera’s outwardly dipping ring faults between these periods. Another plausible mechanism that we plan to investigate is the lateral transport of magma from beneath the southern caldera to either the northern caldera or to a secondary reservoir, located 5 km to the east. These deflation events are potentially important for understanding the mechanisms of magma supply, storage, and transport at Axial Seamount, as well as for accurately forecasting future eruptions, which have been shown to be inflation-predictable.

Axial Seamount is the most active submarine volcano in the NE Pacific Ocean, and is monitored by instruments connected to a cabled observatory (the US Ocean Observatories Initiative Cabled Array), supplemented by autonomous battery-powered instruments on the seafloor (at ~1500 m depth). Axial is a basaltic hot spot volcano superimposed on the Juan de Fuca spreading ridge, giving it a robust and apparently continuous magma supply. It has had three effusive eruptions in the last 21 years: in 1998, 2011, and 2015. Deformation measurements have been conducted at Axial Seamount since the late 1980’s with bottom pressure recorders (BPRs) that can detect vertical movements of the seafloor with a resolution of ~1 cm. This monitoring has produced a 22+ year time-series including co-eruption rapid deflation events of 2.5-3.2 meters, separated by continuous gradual inter-eruption inflation at variable rates between 15-80 cm/yr. The overall pattern appears to be inflation-predictable, with eruptions triggered at or near a critical level of inflation. Using this pattern, the 2015 eruption was successfully forecast within a one-year time window, 7 months in advance. As of December 2019, Axial Seamount has re-inflated 1.98 m (~78%) of the 2.54 m it deflated during the 2015 eruption. We are exploring several methods to forecast the next eruption, including daily extrapolation of the average rate of inflation from OOI BPR data during the last 3 months forward in time until it intersects the threshold reached before the 2015 eruption. Using this method with the difference in inflation between two OOI BPR instruments located 3.5 km apart removes noise from tidal residuals and oceanographic signals that are common to both instruments. This method suggests the next eruption is likely between 2020 and 2024. However, this simple method is complicated by uncertainties in the next inflation threshold (the volcano inflated 20 cm higher before the 2015 eruption compared to 2011), changes in the rate of inflation with time, and by intermittent pauses in the inflation (and seismicity) observed since 2015 that have lasted from a week to several months.