The North Atlantic subpolar gyre experienced strong freshening in recent years starting around 2012. Here, we investigate the imprint of this freshwater anomaly on the water column hydrography and transport variability of the Irminger Current (IC). The IC transports warm and saline waters northward along the western flank of the Reykjanes Ridge as part of the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To investigate if the salinity anomaly spread and propagated downward, we used high-resolution mooring data from the IC covering the period 2014 – 2022 combined with hydrographic sections from the Irminger Sea and Iceland Basin. We found that the IC experienced a strong freshening starting in summer 2016. By 2018, this salinity anomaly covers the whole water column down to 1500 m depth and freshened the IC until 2022. In 2022, the IC was at its freshest state observed since the early 1990’s. Hydrographic sections across the adjacent basins showed that the recent freshening spread across the Irminger Sea and was also comparable to its fresh state in the early 1990’s. The salinity anomaly increased the freshwater transport of the IC by a factor of three from 2014-2015 to 2021-2022 and caused a decrease in density over much of the water column. This resulted in an increase in the transport of waters lighter than 27.55 kg m-3, potentially strengthening the upper limb of the AMOC.

Glacial fjord circulation determines the import of oceanic heat to the Greenland Ice Sheet and the export of ice sheet meltwater to the ocean. However, limited observations and the presence of both glacial and coastal forcing - such as coastal-trapped waves - make uncovering the physical mechanisms controlling fjord-shelf exchange difficult. Here we use multi-year, high-resolution, realistically forced numerical simulations of Sermilik Fjord in southeast Greenland to evaluate the exchange flow. We compare models, with and without a plume, to differentiate between the exchange flow driven by shelf variability and that driven by subglacial discharge. We use the Total Exchange Flow framework to quantify the exchange volume fluxes. We find that a decline in offshore wind stress from January through July drives a seasonal reversal in the exchange flow increasing the presence of warm Atlantic Water at depth, that the exchange flux in the summer doubles with the inclusion of glacial plumes, and that the plume-driven circulation is more effective at renewal with a flushing time 1/3 that of the shelf-driven circulation near the fjord head.

Poleward ocean heat transport is a key process in the earth system. We detail and review the northward Atlantic Water (AW) flow, Arctic Ocean heat transport, and heat loss to the atmosphere since 1900 in relation to sea ice cover. Our synthesis is largely based on a sea ice-ocean model forced by a reanalysis atmosphere (1900-2018) corroborated by a comprehensive hydrographic database (1950-), AW inflow observations (1996-), and other long-term time series of sea ice extent (1900-), glacier retreat (1984-) and Barents Sea hydrography (1900-). The Arctic Ocean, including the Nordic and Barents Seas, has warmed since the 1970s. This warming is congruent with increased ocean heat transport and sea ice loss and has contributed to the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers on Greenland. Heat loss to the atmosphere is largest in the Nordic Seas (60% of total) with large variability linked to the frequency of Cold Air Outbreaks and cyclones in the region, but there is no long-term statistically significant trend. Heat loss from the Barents Sea (~30%) and Arctic seas farther north (~10%) is overall smaller, but exhibit large positive trends. The AW inflow, total heat loss to the atmosphere, and dense outflow have all increased since 1900. These are consistently related through theoretical scaling, but the AW inflow increase is also wind-driven. The Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake has increased by ~30% over the last century - consistent with Arctic sea ice loss allowing stronger air-sea interaction and is ~8% of the global uptake.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Outlet glaciers account for almost half of the Greenland Ice Sheet’s mass loss since 1990. Warming subsurface Atlantic Water (AW) has been implicated in much of that loss, particularly along Greenland’s southeastern coast. However, oceanographic observations are sparse prior to the last decade, making it difficult to diagnose changes in AW properties reaching the glaciers. Here, we investigate the use of sea surface temperatures (SST) to quantify ocean temperature variability on the continental shelf near Sermilik Fjord and Helheim Glacier. We find that after removing the short-term, atmospheric-driven variability in non-winter months, regional SSTs provide a reliable upper ocean temperature record. In the trough region near Sermilik Fjord, the adjusted SSTs correlate well with moored ocean measurements of the water entering the fjord at depth and driving glacier melting. Using this relationship, we reconstruct the AW variability on the shelf dating back to 2000, eight years before the first mooring deployments. Seasonally, AW reaches close to the fjord’s mouth in fall and winter and further offshore in spring. Interannually, the AW temperatures in the trough do not always track properties in the source waters of the Irminger Current. Instead, the properties of the waters found at the fjord mouth depend on both variations in the source AW and, also, in the Polar Water that flows into the region from the Arctic Ocean. Satellite-derived SSTs, although dependent on local oceanography, have the potential to improve understanding around previously unanswered glacier-ocean questions in areas surrounding Greenland and Antarctica.

The subpolar North Atlantic is a site of significant carbon dioxide, oxygen, and heat exchange with the atmosphere. This exchange, which regulates transient climate change and prevents large-scale hypoxia throughout the North Atlantic, is thought to be mediated by vertical mixing in the ocean's surface mixed layer. Here we present observational evidence that waters deeper than the conventionally defined mixed layer are affected directly by atmospheric forcing. When northerly winds blow along the Irminger Sea's western boundary current, the Ekman response pushes denser water over lighter water and triggers slantwise convection. We estimate that this down-front wind forcing is four times stronger than air--sea heat flux buoyancy forcing and can mix waters to several times the conventionally defined mixed layer depth. Slantwise convection is not included in most large-scale ocean models, which likely limits their ability to accurately represent subpolar water mass transformations and deep ocean ventilation.