Based on the relationship between the service value of each component of agro-ecosystem and its corresponding land cover, the service value of agro-ecosystem in oasis area of lower reaches of Tarim River was analyzed. Using the land cover data of 2000, 2010 and 2020, and setting two scenarios in the FLUS model to simulate the land cover change of the study area in 2030. According to the forecast results of land cover, the the value of agro-ecological service was calculated and the sensitivity was analyzed. Results showed the following: (1) The Kappa coefficients and overall accuracy of 2010 land cover models simulated by FLUS are 0.8429 and 92.55% , indicating that the model has appropriate simulation accuracy. (2) The proportion of farmland, grassland, water body and artificial surface increased from 4.28%, 22.26%, 2.18% and 1.16% in 2000 to 6.63%, 25.86%, 10.96% and 0.48% in 2030 benchmark scenario, respectively. On the contrary, the shrub land and barren land decreased from 1.07% and 70.75% in 2000 to 0.7% and 55.44% in 2030 benchmark scenario, respectively.(3) The agro-ecosystem service value of benchmark scenario and ecological protection scenario are CN¥6.781×109 and CN¥6.937×109 in 2030, respectively. The practice has proved that the ecological water conveyance project is very necessary to improve the agricultural ecological environment in oasis area of lower reaches of Tarim River. This study can provide reference for the research on the agro-ecosystem service value of oases in inland river basins of China and Central Asia.

Comprehensive studies of the contributions of climate variation and anthropogenic activities to runoff alterations are essential for sustainable management of water resources in Central Asian countries. In the Kofarnihon River Basin (KRB) in Central Asia, both changing climate conditions and anthropogenic activities are known to have caused variations to the hydrological cycle. Therefore, quantifying the net influence of human contribution to the runoff changes is a challenge. In this study, by applying the original and modified Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, double cumulative curve and elasticity methods the historical trends and breakpoint changes of the hydro-climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff over the 1950–2016 along were determined, in addition the contributions of climate variation and anthropogenic activities to runoff changes in the KRB were evaluated. The trend analysis exhibited a significant increasing trend in annual temperature and potential evapotranspiration and the annual precipitation trend showed insignificant decreasing trend during the 1950–2016 time period. The breakpoint change was detected in runoff occurs in 1991. Further, the time series (1950–2016) are separated into the prior impacted period (1950–1991) and post impacted period (1992–2016) with trend test. The results showed that anthropogenic activities played a dominant role in changes in the runoff with a contribution of 79.94% in the upstream and 97.78% in the downstream of the KRB. Climate change contributed to 20.06% in the upstream and 7.53% in the downstream of the catchment during the post impacted period. In the land-use type changes, the dominant role played construction land which showed that the area from 248.63 km2 in 1990 increased to 685.45 km2 (175.69%) in 2015. The findings suggest that it is essential to adopt effective steps for sustainable development of ecological, hydrological and social order in the KRB in Central Asia.

The vegetation in the desert riparian zone represents a critical barrier in the maintenance of the ecosystem’s balance. However, in recent years, the vegetation degradation of the riparian zone have seriously hindered economic development and ecological environment conservation. Based on a field investigation and literature, the mechanisms of vegetation degradation in the lower reaches of the Ugan River are discussed in this study through the analysis of plant coverage, diversity, substitution rate, distribution pattern, grey correlation analysis, and the relationship with groundwater depth. The results showed that the vegetation coverage in this region is relatively low when the water depth exceeds 4 meters. Furthermore, the Shannon-Wiener index, the Simpson index and the Pielou index have all decreased with increases in water depth. Woody plants are the main species maintaining the ecological balance of the region with an aggregation distribution pattern. The degradation of vegetation is the result of the lack of water sources and intense water consumption caused by human activities(especially agricultural). To promote the ecological balance and vegetation restoration, the relative optimal water depth range can be maintained within 2 to 5 meters and proper control human activities.besides the degraded vegetation can gradually be restored using point and surface (i.e., flowering in the center and spreading to the surrounding areas).