It is well appreciated that moist tropical forests from South America have been broadly affected by climate change. However, long-term trends of seasonal forests are still largely understudied. Here, we evaluate the long-term ecological trends of seasonal Brazilian forests. We used 33 years of locally collected soil and vegetation data (837 tree species) gathered from 34 hectares of evergreen, semideciduous and deciduous forests. We expected them to be more sensitive than resilient to climate change. Across the study region, more species were extinct (315) than locally recruited (238). Locally extinct species’ niches were characterized by lower temperatures and higher precipitation. Climatic variables were the main drivers of productivity decrease, especially for larger trees. Deciduous forests were the most vulnerable for being at their ecological threshold. For encompassing a broad temporal scale, our study provided a detailed view of species responses and ecosystem function in tropical forests.