Abstract
It is well appreciated that moist tropical forests from South America
have been broadly affected by climate change. However, long-term trends
of seasonal forests are still largely understudied. Here, we evaluate
the long-term ecological trends of seasonal Brazilian forests. We used
33 years of locally collected soil and vegetation data (837 tree
species) gathered from 34 hectares of evergreen, semideciduous and
deciduous forests. We expected them to be more sensitive than resilient
to climate change. Across the study region, more species were extinct
(315) than locally recruited (238). Locally extinct species’ niches were
characterized by lower temperatures and higher precipitation. Climatic
variables were the main drivers of productivity decrease, especially for
larger trees. Deciduous forests were the most vulnerable for being at
their ecological threshold. For encompassing a broad temporal scale, our
study provided a detailed view of species responses and ecosystem
function in tropical forests.