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Usefulness of Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction - Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Score for Predicting Survival in Patients with Heart Failure
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  • Rengin Cetin Guvenc,
  • Tolga Sinan Guvenc,
  • Yuksel Cavusoglu,
  • Ahmet Temizhan,
  • Mehmet Birhan YILMAZ
Rengin Cetin Guvenc
Kirklareli Universitesi

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Tolga Sinan Guvenc
Medical Park Hospitals Group
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Yuksel Cavusoglu
Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi
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Ahmet Temizhan
Ankara City Hospital
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Mehmet Birhan YILMAZ
Dokuz Eylül University
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Background: While many risk models have been developed to predict prognosis in heart failure (HF), these models are rarely useful for the clinical practitioner as they include multiple variables that might be time-consuming to obtain, they are usually difficult to calculate and they may suffer from statistical overfitting. Present study aimed to investigate whether a simpler model, namely ACEF-MDRD score, could be used for predicting one-year mortality in HF patients. Methods: 748 cases within the SELFIE-HF registry had complete data to calculate ACEF-MDRD score. Patients were grouped into tertiles for analyses. Results: Significantly more patients within the ACEF-MDRDhigh tertile (30.0%) died within one year, as compared to other tertiles (10.8% and 16.1%, respectively, for ACEF-MDRDlow and ACEF-MDRDmed, p<0.001 for both comparisons). There was a stepwise decrease in one-year survival as ACEF-MDRD score increased (log-rank p<0.001). ACEF-MDRD was an independent predictor of survival after adjusting for other variables (OR: 1.14, 95%CI:1.04 – 1.24, p=0.006). ACEF-MDRD score offered similar accuracy to GWTG-HF score for prediction of one-year mortality (p=0.14). Conclusions: ACEF-MDRD is a predictor of mortality in patients with HF, and its usefulness is comparable to similar yet more complicated models.