Abstract
Background: While many risk models have been developed to
predict prognosis in heart failure (HF), these models are rarely useful
for the clinical practitioner as they include multiple variables that
might be time-consuming to obtain, they are usually difficult to
calculate and they may suffer from statistical overfitting. Present
study aimed to investigate whether a simpler model, namely ACEF-MDRD
score, could be used for predicting one-year mortality in HF patients.Methods: 748 cases within the SELFIE-HF registry had complete
data to calculate ACEF-MDRD score. Patients were grouped into tertiles
for analyses. Results: Significantly more patients within the
ACEF-MDRDhigh tertile (30.0%) died within one year, as
compared to other tertiles (10.8% and 16.1%, respectively, for
ACEF-MDRDlow and ACEF-MDRDmed,
p<0.001 for both comparisons). There was a stepwise decrease
in one-year survival as ACEF-MDRD score increased (log-rank
p<0.001). ACEF-MDRD was an independent predictor of survival
after adjusting for other variables (OR: 1.14, 95%CI:1.04 – 1.24,
p=0.006). ACEF-MDRD score offered similar accuracy to GWTG-HF score for
prediction of one-year mortality (p=0.14). Conclusions:ACEF-MDRD is a predictor of mortality in patients with HF, and its
usefulness is comparable to similar yet more complicated models.