Predicting the loss to follow-up (LTFU) of AIDS patients in China using
a recency-frequency (RF) model
Abstract
Constructs and verifies a recency-frequency (RF) model for predicting
the loss to follow-up (LTFU) in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
(AIDS) patients in China. We exported the full data of AIDS outpatients
in the research unit from August 2009 to September 2020 as the
observation dataset, from September to December 2020 as the prediction
dataset. The data cleaned to obtain one data element per person. The
classic recency-frequency-monetary (RFM) model was expanded into RFM,
RF, RFL and RFML models (L: length of treatment cycle), using the
k-means for model construction and C5.0 for verification to the best
predictive model. The best predictive model was subjected to two rounds
of k-means clustering. In the retained data were randomly divided into a
training set (70%) and a testing set (30%). The artificial neural
network algorithm was used to predict the LTFU of AIDS patients and the
confusion matrix was used to evaluate the performance. The observation
dataset included 16,949 elements and the prediction dataset had 10,748
elements. In the best predictive model, an RF model with a quality of
0.82. A retained of 13,799 data elements were retrained and randomly
binned into a test set and a verification set, the accuracy rate
were100.0%. LTFU of AIDS patients was predicted in the prediction set
with a correct rate of 99.89% and the accuracy and precision were
85.41% and 99.76%, respectively. The RF model verified using a neural
network algorithm is effective, reliable and feasible to predict the
LTFU of AIDS patients in China.