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Comparative Impact Assessment of Climate Change and Land-Use Alteration on Decadal Water Balance Components: A Case Study on The Baitarani River Basin, Odisha
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  • Sushree Swagatika Swain,
  • Ashok Mishra,
  • Bhabagrahi Sahoo,
  • Chandranath Chatterjee
Sushree Swagatika Swain
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur

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Ashok Mishra
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur
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Bhabagrahi Sahoo
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur
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Chandranath Chatterjee
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur
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Abstract

Water Balance Components (WBCs), the most fundamental processes of a river basin, are getting disturbed by climate change and land-use alterations in the present scenario. These two factors are the major driving force behind the spatio-temporal variation of the WBCs that creates an alarming concern for fulfilling water demand by different sectors. The popular hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is applied to the Baitarani River basin (12,095 km2) of eastern India for evaluating the dominance of the above factors on the WBCs deviations at a decadal scale (1980-1989, 1990-1999, and 2000-2009). A quantile regression-based stochastic approach has been used to analyze the uncertainties resulting from different simulations accounting the combined responses of climate change and land-use alterations as well as model parameters. However, such analysis has not been explored more for the present study area. The model performance results reveal that the statistical performance indices (NSE and R2) are within the acceptable limit. The WBCs in terms of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, lateral flow, water yield, soil moisture storage, and deep aquifer recharge has been quantified at a decadal scale from the simulated model outcomes. The result shows that the water yield component is more (680.36 mm) for mid-decade (1990-1999) as compared to other decades, which is favourable to fulfill sectoral water demand. Further, the uncertainty analysis explains that climate change impact plays a vital role in WBCs variation. The developed approach can portray the variability of WBCs of other river basins that are vulnerable to climate change. The outcomes of this study can be used to maintain an appropriate balance between water availability and demand to avoid water scarcity. Keywords: Water balance components; Climate change; Land-use Alterations, Brahmani; Baitarani