Climate change effect on river runoff under CMIP6 GCM's in the Upper
regions of Indus River
Abstract
Pakistan is primarily dependent on water supplies from the Upper Indus
basin for irrigated agriculture. Any changes in available resources due
to climate, consequently has the potential to have a significant impact
on the environment. Coupled model inter-comparison project phase 6
(CMIP6) based global climate models (GCMs) under shared socioeconomic
pathways (SSP245) scenario were assessed to evaluate the study area for
climate change effect on river runoff using Soil and water assessment
tool (SWAT). Temperature fluctuations have a significant effect on
stream flow, since the primary sources of river runoff in the Upper
Regions of Indus Basin (URIB) are snow and glacier melting. The
temperature (min & max) will likely increase by almost 18% in the
future, the projected precipitation pattern will increase by 13-17 %,
and the stream flow will increase by 19-30 % in the future due to the
warmer temperature. Temperature (min & max), precipitation and stream
flow have had different effects in each season, while their variability
in the projected annual changes are increasing for mid and late 21
st century. Hydroelectricity generation, irrigation,
flood prevention, and storage reservoir will be required in the
strategies and action plans for the effective water resources
management.