African swine fever (ASF) free China has experienced a sudden
multi-focal and multi-round of outbreaks during 2018. The subsequent
epidemiological survey resulted in a debate including the possibility of
a transboundary spread from European Russia to China through wild boar.
We contribute to the debate by assessing a potential Trans-Siberian
transmission path and its associated ASF arrival dates. Least Cost Paths
(LCPs) between Eastern Europe and NE China were plotted. The arrival
dates of ASF-infected wild boar have been predicted by cumulative
maximum transmission distances per season and cover with their
associated minimum time intervals along the LCPs. Our results show high
costs for wild boar to cross Xinjiang, NW China and/or Mongolia to reach
NE China. Instead, the Paths lead almost straight eastward along the
59.5° Northern latitude through Siberia and would have taken a minimum
of 219 or 260 days.