Conservation of breeding seabirds typically requires detailed data on where they feed at sea. Ecological niche models (ENMs) can fill data gaps, but rarely perform well when transferred to new regions. Alternatively, the foraging radius approach simply encircles the sea surrounding a breeding seabird colony (a foraging circle), but overestimates foraging habitat. Here, we investigate whether ENMs can transfer (predict) foraging niches of breeding tropical seabirds between global colonies, and whether ENMs can refine foraging circles. We collate a large global dataset of tropical seabird tracks (12000 trips, 16 species, 60 colonies) to build a comprehensive summary of tropical seabird foraging ranges and to train ENMs. We interrogate ENM transferability and assess the confidence with which unsuitable habitat predicted by ENMs can be excluded from within foraging circles. We apply this refinement framework to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia to identify a network of candidate marine protected areas (MPAs) for seabirds. We found little ability to generalise and transfer breeding tropical seabird foraging niches across all colonies for any species (mean AUC: 0.56, range 0.4-0.82). Low global transferability was partially explained by colony clusters that predicted well internally but other colony clusters poorly. After refinement with ENMs, foraging circles still contained 89% of known foraging areas from tracking data, providing confidence that important foraging habitat was not erroneously excluded by greater refinement from high transferability ENMs nor minor refinement from low transferability ENMs. Foraging radii estimated the total foraging area of the GBR breeding seabird community as 2,941,000 km2, which was refined by excluding between 197,000 km2 and 1,826,000 km2 of unsuitable foraging habitat. ENMs trained on local GBR tracking achieved superior refinement over globally trained models, demonstrating the value of local tracking. Our framework demonstrates an effective method to delineate candidate MPAs for breeding seabirds in data-poor regions.

Bio-logging has revealed much about high-latitude seabird migratory strategies, but tropical species are comparatively understudied. Here we use geolocators to study the year-round movement behaviour of adult red-footed boobies (Sula sula rubripes) from the Chagos Archipelago, tropical Indian Ocean. Light levels suggest that red-footed boobies are resident in the archipelago year-round, although there are large latitudinal errors this close to the equator. However, immersion data revealed tracked birds returned to land year-round, with no extended at-sea periods, further indicating this population is non-migratory. Our findings have important implications for seabird conservation and phylogenetics, as well as for assessing the impact of seabird nutrients on coral reef ecosystems.

Aim: We aim to document the extent to which climate oscillation and rat infestation on islands affect the distribution of seabirds at sea. Location: The Chagos Archipelago, British Indian Ocean Territory, Central Indian Ocean Methods: At sea observations of seabirds (n = 425) were collected from 2012 to 2017 during the breeding season. We used generalized additive models to identify relationships between dominant seabird families (Laridae, Sulidae, and Procellariidae), geomorphology, oceanographic variability, and climate oscillation. We built boosted regression trees to quantify the effects of proximity to both rat-free and rat-infested islands on seabird distribution, identifying breaking point thresholds in distribution. Results: We identified oceanic hotspots and common geomorphic and oceanographic drivers for all seabird families. We documented positive relationships between Sulidae and Procellariidae abundance and the Indian Ocean Dipole, as represented by the Dipole Mode Index. The abundance of Laridae and Sulidae declined abruptly with greater distance to island. Both families aggregated more densely (1.08 and 1.25 times higher respectively) and in greater proximity (distribution thresholds at 16 and 44 km closer to islands, respectively) next to rat-free island compared with to rat-infested islands. In contrast, Procellariidae increased in abundance with greater distance to islands, plateauing at 83 km and were not significantly influenced by rat presence on nearby islands. We identified areas of increased abundance at sea under a scenario where rats are eradicated from infested islands with subsequent seabird recolonization. Main conclusions: Climate oscillations may cause shifts in seabird distribution, possibly through changes in regional productivity and prey distribution. Invasive species eradications and subsequent island recolonization can lead to predictable distribution gains and increased competition. Our analysis predicting range extension after successful eradications enables anticipatory threat-mitigation in these areas, minimising competition between colonies and thereby maximising the risk of success and the conservation impact of eradication programmes.