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Validation of Ionospheric Specifications During Geomagnetic Storms: TEC and foF2 during the 2013 March Storm Event-II
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  • Ja Soon Shim,
  • In-Sun Song,
  • Geonhwa Jee,
  • Young-Sil Kwak,
  • Ioanna Tsagouri,
  • Larisa Goncharenko,
  • Joseph McInerney,
  • Francis Vitt,
  • Lutz Rastaetter,
  • Jia Yue,
  • Min-Yang Chou,
  • Mihail V. Codrescu,
  • Anthea J Coster,
  • Mariangel Fedrizzi,
  • Timothy J. Fuller-Rowell,
  • Aaron J. Ridley,
  • Stanley C. Solomon
Ja Soon Shim
Yonsei University,
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In-Sun Song
Yonsei University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Geonhwa Jee
Korea Polar Research Institute
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Young-Sil Kwak
Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute
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Ioanna Tsagouri
National Observatory of Athens
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Larisa Goncharenko
MIT Haystack Observatory, Westford, MA, USA.
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Joseph McInerney
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Francis Vitt
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Lutz Rastaetter
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Jia Yue
Goddard Space Flight Center
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Min-Yang Chou
Goddard Space Flight Center
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Mihail V. Codrescu
Space Weather Prediction Center, National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration
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Anthea J Coster
MIT Haystack Observatory
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Mariangel Fedrizzi
University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/SWPC
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Timothy J. Fuller-Rowell
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
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Aaron J. Ridley
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor
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Stanley C. Solomon
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Assessing space weather modeling capability is a key element in improving existing models and developing new ones. In order to track improvement of the models and investigate impacts of forcing, from the lower atmosphere below and from the magnetosphere above, on the performance of ionosphere-thermosphere models, we expand our previous assessment for 2013 March storm event [Shim et al., 2018]. In this study, we evaluate new simulations from upgraded models (Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (CTIPe) model version 4.1 and Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) version 21.11) and from NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM-X) version 2.2 including 8 simulations in the previous study. A simulation of NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model version 2 (TIE-GCM 2) is also included for comparison with WACCM-X. TEC and foF2 changes from quiet-time background are considered to evaluate the model performance on the storm impacts. For evaluation, we employ 4 skill scores: Correlation coefficient (CC), root-mean square error (RMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum percentage changes (Yield), and timing error(TE). It is found that the models tend to underestimate the storm-time enhancements of foF2 (F2-layer critical frequency) and TEC (Total Electron Content) and to predict foF2 and/or TEC better in the North America but worse in the Southern Hemisphere. The ensemble simulation for TEC is comparable to results from a data assimilation model (Utah State University-Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurement (USU-GAIM)) with differences in skill score less than 3% and 6% for CC and RMSE, respectively.