Integrating food webs in species distribution models improves ecological
niche estimation and predictions
Abstract
Biotic interactions drive multitrophic species community assembly. Yet,
explicitly incorporating this process in species distribution models
(SDMs) is particularly challenging, even when biotic interactions are
known. Here, we propose a framework that combines knowledge of trophic
interactions with Bayesian structural equation models that model each
species as a function of its prey or predators and environmental
conditions. We tested and validated our framework on realistic simulated
communities from different theoretical models. We showed that our
framework improves the inference of both species’ fundamental and
realized niches compared to classical SDMs (mean performances increased
by 11% and 4% respectively), especially for species with strong biotic
control, thus increasing model predictive performance (up to 99% and
70% improvement, respectively). Our framework can easily integrate
various SDM extensions (e.g., occupancy models) and algorithms, and
stands out as a novel solution for modeling multitrophic community
distributions when trophic interactions are known or assumed.