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Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change
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  • Guillermo Garcia Costoya,
  • Claire Williams,
  • Trevor Faske,
  • Jacob Moorman,
  • Michael Logan
Guillermo Garcia Costoya
University of Nevada Reno

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Claire Williams
University of Nevada Reno
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Trevor Faske
University of Nevada Reno
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Jacob Moorman
University of California Los Angeles
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Michael Logan
University of Nevada Reno
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Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of ongoing climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major concomitant components of climate change---increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three-fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.
03 Oct 2022Submitted to Ecology Letters
11 Oct 2022Submission Checks Completed
11 Oct 2022Assigned to Editor
11 Oct 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
18 Oct 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
24 Nov 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Major
14 Dec 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
14 Dec 20221st Revision Received
15 Dec 2022Submission Checks Completed
15 Dec 2022Assigned to Editor
17 Dec 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
14 Jan 2023Editorial Decision: Accept