Predictive ranges for the population of CD4 + lymphocytes for HIV
positive patients on antiretroviral treatment
Abstract
Introduction: part of the effectiveness of follow-ups of patients with
HIV in antiretroviral therapy is done through the quantification of CD4
+ lymphocytes, hence the correct establishment of these values is an
issue of interest in the clinical setting. Objective: to establish
predictive mathematical relationships between CD4+ cell counts in ranges
>500, [200,500], <200, between 200 and
>500 and <200 up to 500 cells/μL3 with the
absolute leukocyte count of patient samples over time in the context of
the theory of probability. Methods: Through an inductive process carried
out in 11 patient samples, mathematical patterns that forecast in time
the correspondence between absolute leukocyte counts and CD4+ counts
that can occur in five ranges of clinical interest. Then, a confirmation
was done with 139 patients in a blind study obtaining the probability
values for each range as well as sensitivity and specificity. Results:
The five dynamics predicted achieved probabilities that varied between
0.96 and 1, with a global probability of 0.99 with sensitivity and
specificity values of 99%. Conclusions: a self-organized mathematical
temporal order that allows to forecast the values of CD4+ cells in
relation to leukocyte counts in ranges of clinical interests was found,
which could be useful to develop surveillance programs of HIV-infected
patients in low-income countries, improving their survival rates.