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Predictive ranges for the population of CD4 + lymphocytes for HIV positive patients on antiretroviral treatment
  • Javier Rodríguez,
  • Carlos Pérez,
  • Ribká Soracipa
Javier Rodríguez
Insight Research Group SAS

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Carlos Pérez
Servicios y Asesorías en Infectología
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Ribká Soracipa
Insight Research Group SAS
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Introduction: part of the effectiveness of follow-ups of patients with HIV in antiretroviral therapy is done through the quantification of CD4 + lymphocytes, hence the correct establishment of these values is an issue of interest in the clinical setting. Objective: to establish predictive mathematical relationships between CD4+ cell counts in ranges >500, [200,500], <200, between 200 and >500 and <200 up to 500 cells/μL3 with the absolute leukocyte count of patient samples over time in the context of the theory of probability. Methods: Through an inductive process carried out in 11 patient samples, mathematical patterns that forecast in time the correspondence between absolute leukocyte counts and CD4+ counts that can occur in five ranges of clinical interest. Then, a confirmation was done with 139 patients in a blind study obtaining the probability values for each range as well as sensitivity and specificity. Results: The five dynamics predicted achieved probabilities that varied between 0.96 and 1, with a global probability of 0.99 with sensitivity and specificity values of 99%. Conclusions: a self-organized mathematical temporal order that allows to forecast the values of CD4+ cells in relation to leukocyte counts in ranges of clinical interests was found, which could be useful to develop surveillance programs of HIV-infected patients in low-income countries, improving their survival rates.