Chaos arising from the hydrological behaviour of a floodplain river
during the last century
Abstract
The hydrological regime is the main factor governing the functioning of
floodplain rivers. A full comprehension of its dynamic leads to a better
understanding of the system’s behaviour and of the proper methods that
must be used. We analysed the daily water level of the Paraná River
during the last century at three gauge stations using linear and
non-linear tools to characterise the hydrological dynamic and to analyse
to what extent chaotic behaviour prevails. The three water level time
series were characterised as non-linear and non-stationary by power
spectrum, autocorrelation function, and surrogate test analyses. A
strange attractor was developed when the phase space was reconstructed,
having a low dimensional chaos supported by correlation dimension,
positive maximum Lyapunov exponents, and recurrence quantification
analysis. In line with this, the system resulted unpredictable with a
threshold by sample entropy, and with an intermediate hydrological
complexity, while Hurst exponent characterised the system as persistent
and with sensitive dependence on initial conditions. In a general
overview, all the evidence obtained indicates that the Paraná River’s
behaviour is at the edge of chaos. A latitudinal gradient of decreasing
chaoticity was observed as the floodplain extent increased, whereas
complexity was highest at the intermediate river station due to the
inflow of tributaries with different hydrology. This paper attempts to
offer some additional insights for understanding the hydrological
behaviour of floodplain rivers and the proper methods to understand
their complexity.