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On the Rainfall and Temperature Forecast Skill for a Tropical Andean Mountain Area in Northern South America Using Different Operational Weather Forecast Strategies: Role of the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall on the Success of Data Assimilation
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  • Gisel Guzmán,
  • Lina Isabel Ceballos,
  • Juan Camilo Hernández,
  • Mauricio Zapata Henao,
  • Manuela Guarin Vargas,
  • Carlos David Hoyos Ortiz
Gisel Guzmán
SIATA

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Lina Isabel Ceballos
SIATA
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Juan Camilo Hernández
SIATA
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Mauricio Zapata Henao
SIATA
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Manuela Guarin Vargas
SIATA
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Carlos David Hoyos Ortiz
SIATA, Universidad Nacional de Colombia
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Abstract

Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWP) have been used extensively since the ’40-’50s. Despite the advances in the field, the representation and forecast of the magnitude and variability of tropical processes in models is still a challenge. One of the steps to improve the precipitation forecasts using limited-area models is to evaluate which set of physical schemes and model domain configurations represent in a better way the actual behavior observed in the tropics. We implemented, as a part of a regional risk management strategy, two different operational weather forecast strategies for a complex terrain region in the Andes mountain range in northern South America. Both strategies, together, generate a total of eleven different forecasts every day, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with initial and boundary conditions from the Global Forecast System (GFS). The first configuration, implemented over five years ago and referred to as SYNAPSIS, includes three nested domains (18, 6 and 2 km) and is carried out every day using the 12 UTC GFS run and three different microphysics parametrizations: Eta Ferrier scheme, Purdue Lin Scheme and Thompson Scheme. The forecast lead-time of the latter strategy is 120 hours, and it does not use data assimilation. Since December of 2017, we implemented a second configuration termed RDFS, with two nested domains (12 and 2.4 Km), which carried out four times a day using the 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC GFS runs. This configuration has a 30-hours lead time with the Thompson microphysics scheme. In RDFS, two WRF forecast runs are performed for each start hour, one assimilating weather radar reflectivity and the other without assimilation as control run, for a total of eight forecast runs daily. In this study, we assess the rainfall and temperature forecasts for all the different configurations using precipitation derived from reflectivity from weather radar, and air temperature at 2m from a network of automatic weather stations. We use 6 hourly and monthly skill scores (RMSE, BIAS, and Correlation coefficient) to quantify the precipitation differences between the SYNAPSIS and the RDFS configurations. To evaluate the impact of data assimilation in the precipitation forecast, we aggregate the results in a region within the inner domain, and then we calculate the average precipitation forecast between 0 and 36 predicted hours for RDFS with and without data assimilation. The results suggest a strong relationship between the forecast start time and the improve of precipitation forecast accuracy using data assimilation. The diurnal cycle of precipitation in the study region has a minimum in the morning (12 UTC) and a maximum in the afternoon (00 UTC) and during the night (09 UTC). The correspondence between the forecast improvement using data assimilation and the diurnal cycle of precipitation is likely due to the amount of assimilated data. In order to quantify the precipitation differences between the diffe