Horizontally-extensive lightning flashes occur frequently in association with mature and late phases of multicellular thunderstorms, both in trailing stratiform regions and horizontally-extensive anvils. The spatial relationship between these flashes and the parent cloud volume is of importance for space launch operational decision making, and is of broader scientific interest. Before this question can be accurately addressed, there is a need to understand the degree to which current lightning observation systems can depict the spatial extent of these long flashes. In this ongoing work, we will intercompare the depiction of horizontally-extensive flashes using several ground-based lightning locating systems (LLSs) located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) with space-based observations observed by the recently-launched Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) onboard the GOES-16 satellite. Ground-based datasets include the KSC Lightning Mapping Array (KSCLMA), the operational narrowband digital interferometer network MERLIN, and the combined cloud-to-ground and cloud lightning dataset produced by the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The KSCLMA system is a network of VHF time-of-arrival sensors that preferentially report breakdown processes, and MERLIN is a network of VHF interferometers that point to the discharges in the horizontal plane. Observations to date indicate that MERLIN and the KSCSLMA provide similar overall descriptions of the spatial and temporal extent of these flashes, while the NLDN does not provide adequate spatial mapping of these flashes. The KSC LMA system has much better location accuracy, and provides excellent 3-dimensional representation within ~100 km of KSC. It also has sufficient sensitivity to provide 2-dimensional flash mapping within ~250 km of KSC. The MERLIN system provides a more-detailed representation of fast leader propagation (in 2 dimensions) with ~100 km of KSC. Earlier work during the CHUVA campaign in Brazil with similar systems and the (orbital) Lightning Imaging System (LIS) has shown that the interferometric data correlated much better in space and time with the LIS optical observations. We are currently investigating this relationship at KSC, where both the LMA and interferometer perform much better than the systems used during CHUVA.

Coal combustion aerosol particles contribute to the concentrations of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the atmosphere. Especially, immersion freezing can be considered as one of the most important mechanisms for INP formation in supercooled tropospheric clouds that exist at temperatures between 0°C and -38°C. The U.S. contains more than 550 operating coal-burning plants consuming 7.2 x 10^8 metric tons of coal (in 2016) to generate a total annual electricity of >2 billion MW-h, resulting in the emission of at least 4.9 x 10^5 metric tons of PM10 (particulate matter smaller than 10 µm in diameter). In Texas alone, 19 combustion plants generate 0.15 billion MW-h electricity and >2.4 x 10^4 metric tons of PM10. Here we present the immersion freezing behavior of combustion fly ash and bottom ash particles collected in the Texas Panhandle region. Two types of particulate samples, namely <45 µm sieved bottom ash (B_Ash_TX_PH) and <45 µm sieved fly ash (F_Ash_TX_PH), were prepared. Afterwards, their immersion freezing abilities were measured using the Cryogenic Refrigerator Applied to Freezing Test (CRAFT) system covering the heterogeneous freezing temperature down to -30 °C. The results were generated and are reported through two metrics, frozen fraction, ffrozen(T), and ice nucleation active site density per unit mass, nm(T) as a function of temperature. Our preliminary results show that an onset increase in ffrozen(T) for B_Ash_TX_PH (ffrozen) occurred as high as at -15°C, whereas the onset for F_Ash_TX_PH is at -18°C. Secondly, B_Ash_TX_PH exhibited a higher nm(-20 °C) of 10^5 g^-1 than that of F_Ash_TX_PH ( 5 x 10^3 g^-1). On the other hand, previous studies on different combustion ash samples have reported that the opposite trend (i.e., ice nucleation efficiency of fly ash is greater than that of bottom ash; Grawe et al., 2016, ACP; Umo et al., 2015, ACP). We will discuss possible reasons for the observed differences. In addition, the results of complementary physico-chemical analyses via X-ray diffraction technique, Raman microscopy and scanning electron microscopy on both ash types will also be presented to relate the crystallographic and chemical properties to their ice nucleation abilities.

The Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) community model have been widely used for the study of pollutants transport, formation of secondary pollutants, as well as for the assessment of air quality policies implementation. A key factor to improve the WRF-Chem air quality simulations over urban areas is the representation of anthropogenic emission sources. There are several tools that are available to assist users in creating their own emissions based on global emissions information (e.g. anthro_emiss, prep_chem_src); however, there is no single tool that will construct local emissions input datasets for any particular domain at this time. Because the official emissions pre-processor (emiss_v03) is designed to work with domains located over North America, this work presents the Another Assimilation System for WRF-Chem (AAS4WRF), a ncl based mass-conserving emissions pre-processor designed to create WRF-Chem ready emissions files from local inventories on a lat/lon projection. AAS4WRF is appropriate to scale emission rates from both surface and elevated sources, providing the users an alternative way to assimilate their emissions to WRF-Chem. Since it was successfully tested for the first time for the city of Lima, Peru in 2014 (managed by SENAMHI, the National Weather Service of the country), several studies on air quality modelling have applied this utility to convert their emissions to those required for WRF-Chem. Two case studies performed in the metropolitan areas of Sao Paulo and Manizales in Brazil and Colombia, respectively, are here presented in order to analyse the influence of using local or global emission inventories in the representation of regulated air pollutants such as O3 and PM2.5. Although AAS4WRF works with local emissions information at the moment, further work is being conducted to make it compatible with global/regional emissions data file format. The tool is freely available upon request to the corresponding author.

The outer heliosphere is an interesting region characterized by the interaction between the solar wind and the interstellar neutral atoms. Having accomplished the mission to Pluto in 2015 and currently on the way to the Kuiper Belt, the New Horizons spacecraft is following the footsteps of the two Voyager spacecraft that previously explored this region lying roughly beyond 30 AU from the Sun. We model the three-dimensional, time-dependent solar wind plasma flow to the outer heliosphere using our own software Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS), which, in addition to the thermal solar wind plasma, takes into account charge exchange of the solar wind protons with interstellar neutral atoms and treats nonthermal ions (i.e., pickup ions) born during this process as a separate fluid. Additionally, MS-FLUKSS allows us to model turbulence generated by pickup ions. We use MS-FLUKSS to investigate the evolution of plasma and turbulent fluctuations along the trajectory of the New Horizons spacecraft using plasma and turbulence parameters from OMNI data as time-dependent boundary conditions at 1 AU for the Reynolds-averaged MHD equations. We compare the model with in situ plasma observations by New Horizons, Voyager 2, and Ulysses. We also compare the model pickup proton parameters with those derived from the Ulysses-SWICS data.

Pulse-like ruptures tend to be more sensitive to stress heterogeneity than crack-like ones. For instance, a stress-barrier can more easily stop the propagation of a pulse than that of a crack. While crack-like ruptures tend to homogenize the stress field within their rupture area, pulse-like ruptures develop heterogeneous stress fields. This feature of pulse-like ruptures can potentially lead to complex seismicity with a wide range of magnitudes akin to the Gutenberg-Richter law. Previous models required a friction law with severe velocity-weakening to develop pulses and complex seismicity. Recent dynamic rupture simulations show that the presence of a damaged zone around a fault can induce pulse-like rupture, even under a simple slip-weakening friction law, although the mechanism depends strongly on initial stress conditions. Here we aim at testing if fault zone damage is a sufficient ingredient to generate complex seismicity. In particular, we investigate the effects of damaged fault zones on the emergence and sustainability of pulse-like ruptures throughout multiple earthquake cycles, regardless of initial conditions. We consider a fault bisecting a homogeneous low-rigidity layer (the damaged zone) embedded in an intact medium. We conduct a series of earthquake cycle simulations to investigate the effects of two fault zone properties: damage level D and thickness H. The simulations are based on classical rate-and-state friction, the quasi-dynamic approximation and the software QDYN (https://github.com/ydluo/qdyn). Selected fully-dynamic simulations are also performed with a spectral element method. Our numerical results show the development of complex rupture patterns in some damaged fault configurations, including events of different sizes, as well as pulse-like, multi-pulse and hybrid pulse-crack ruptures. We further apply elasto-static theory to assess how D and H affect ruptures with constant stress drop, in particular the flatness of their slip profile, which is an indicator of pulse-like rupture. We find qualitative agreement between our theoretical and computational results regarding the range of damaged zone properties that enable pulse-like rupture.

Reliable automatic water samplers allow repetitive sampling of various water sources over long periods of time without requiring a researcher on site, reducing human error as well as the monetary and time costs of traveling to the field, particularly when the scale of the sample period is hours or days. The high fixed cost of buying a commercial sampler with little customizability can be a barrier to research requiring repetitive samples, such as the analysis of septic water pre- and post-treatment. DIY automatic samplers proposed in the past sacrifice maximum volume, customizability, or scope of applications, among other features, in exchange for a lower net cost. The purpose of this project was to develop a low-cost, highly customizable, robust water sampler that is capable of sampling many sources of water for various analytes. A lightweight aluminum-extrusion frame was designed and assembled, chosen for its mounting system, strength, and low cost. Water is drawn from two peristaltic pumps through silicone tubing and directed into 24 foil-lined 250mL bags using solenoid valves. A programmable Arduino Uno microcontroller connected to a circuit board communicates with a battery operated real-time clock, initiating sampling stages. Period and volume settings are programmable in-field by the user via serial commands. The OPEnSampler is an open design, allowing the user to decide what components to use and the modular theme of the frame allows fast mounting of new manufactured or 3D printed components. The 24-bag system weighs less than 10kg and the material cost is under $450. Up to 6L of sample water can be drawn at a rate of 100mL/minute in either direction. Faster flowrates are achieved by using more powerful peristaltic pumps. Future design changes could allow a greater maximum volume by filling the unused space with more containers and adding GSM communications to send real time status information.

Understanding the distribution of organic material, mineral inclusions, and porosity are critical to properly model the flow of fluids through rock formations in applications ranging from hydraulic fracturing and gas extraction, CO2 sequestration, geothermal power, and aquifer management. Typically, this information is obtained on the pore scale using destructive techniques such as focused ion beam scanning electron microscopy. Neutrons and X-rays provide non-destructive, complementary probes to gain three-dimensional distributions of porosity, minerals, and organic content along with fluid interactions in fractures and pore networks on the core scale. By capturing both neutron and X-ray tomography simultaneously it is possible to capture slowly dynamic or stochastic processes with both imaging modes. To facilitate this, NIST offers a system for simultaneous neutron and X-ray tomography at the Center for Neutron Research. This instrument provides neutron and X-ray beams capable of penetrating through pressure vessels to image the specimen inside at relevant geological conditions at resolutions ranging from 15 micrometers to 100 micrometers. This talk will discuss current efforts at identifying mineral and organic content and fracture and wettability in shales relevant to gas extraction.

The spatial and time characterisation of trapped charged particle trajectories in magnetospheres has been extensively studied using dipole magnetic field structures. Such studies have allowed the calculation of spatial quantities such as equatorial loss cone size as a function of radial distance, the location of the mirror points along particular field lines (’L shells’) as a function of the particle’s equatorial pitch angle, and time quantities such as the bounce period and drift period as a function of the radial distance and the particle’s pitch angle at the equator. In this study, we present analogous calculations for the ‘disc-like’ field structure associated with the giant rotation-dominated magnetosphere of Jupiter as described by the UCL/Achilleos-Guio-Arridge (UCL/AGA) magnetodisc model. We discuss the effect of the magnetodisc field on various particle parameters, and make a comparison with the analogous motion in a dipole field.

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a layer in the lowest part of the atmosphere where Earth’s surface strongly influences temperature, moisture, and wind through the turbulent transfer of air mass. It is a key component of air pollution transport studies. An urban heat island (UHI) is a metropolitan area which is significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas. The El Paso - Juarez Metropolitan area, with a combined population of ~ 1.972 million (in 2010) and growing urban infrastructure, can be studied as an UHI surrounded by rural areas. In this study, we have analyzed the temperature fields for the lower levels of the troposphere for the El Paso - Juarez metropolitan area and neighboring rural areas during the day and night hours both for the summer and winter seasons. The Vaisala Boundary Layer View Software (BLView) was used to obtain the aerosol mixing layer height (ML), a proxy for the PBL height, using data from a Vaisala ceilometer, model CL31. The ceilometer is situated at the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) campus. The BLView analyzes the ceilometer backscatter profile data and provided the ML structure. In addition, the Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF) was used to simulate PBL heights for the El Paso - Juarez Airshed and its surrounding rural areas. The overall objective of the project is to contribute to a better understanding of the PBL structure and the effect the UHI has for the El Paso - Juarez Airshed.

The partial reflection facility of the Polar Geophysical Institute (the Tumanny observatory, 69.0N, 35.7E) has observed behavior of the high-latitude lower ionosphere during the 20 March 2015 total solar eclipse. There were several effects during the eclipse. At the heights of 60–80 km the ionosphere has shown the effect of a “short night”, but at the higher altitudes local enhanced electron concentration had a wave-like form. Data received by the riometer of the Tumanny observatory have also shown wave-like behavior. The behavior can be explained by influence of acoustic-gravity waves which originated after cooling of the atmosphere during the lunar shadow supersonic movement, and transport processes during the eclipse. During the 21 August 2017 solar eclipse there was a substorm at the high latitudes. But after the end of the substorm in the region of the Tumanny observatory the observed amplitudes of the reflected waves had wave effects which could be connected with the coming waves from the region of the eclipse. The wave features were also shown in the behavior of the total electron content (TEC) of the lower ionosphere. During several solar eclipses it was implemented observations of lower ionosphere behavior by the partial reflection facility of the Tumanny observatory. The consideration of the lower ionosphere TEC had revealed common features in the TEC behavior during the eclipses. The photochemical theory of processes in the lower ionosphere is very complicated and up to now it is not completely developed. Therefore introduction of the effective coefficients determining the total speed of several important reactions has been widely adopted when modeling the D-region of the ionosphere. However, experimental opportunities for obtaining effective recombination coefficients are rather limited. One of the methods to estimate effective recombination coefficients uses the phenomenon of a solar eclipse. During solar eclipses at the partial reflection facility of the Tumanny observatory observations were carried out. It gave possibility to obtain the behavior of the electron concentration in time at the selected heights. Using the obtained experimental profiles, the effective recombination coefficients at the D-region heights of the ionosphere have been evaluated.

The Ganga plains represent the abode of more than 400 million people and a region of severe anthropogenic disturbance to natural processes. Changing agricultural practices, inefficient use of water, contamination of groundwater systems, and decrease in soil fertility are some of the issues that have affected the long-term resilience of hydrological processes. The quantification of these processes demands a network of hydro-meteorological instrumentation, low-cost sensors, continuous engagement of stakeholders and real time data transmission at a fine interval. We have therefore set up a Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) in a small watershed (21 square Km ) that forms an intensively managed rural landscape consisting of 92% of agricultural land in the Pandu River Basin (a small tributary of the Ganga River). Apart from setting up a hydrometeorological observatory, the major science questions we want to address relate to development of water balance model, understanding the soil-water interaction and estimation of nutrient fluxes in the watershed. This observatory currently has various types of sensors that are divided into three categories: (a) spatially not dense but temporally fine data, (b) spatially dense but temporally not fine data and(c) spatially dense and temporally fine data. The first category represent high cost sensors namely automatic weather stations that are deployed at two locations and provide data at 15 minute interval. The second category includes portable soil moisture, discharge and groundwater level at weekly/ biweekly interval. The third category comprises low-cost sensors including automatic surface and groundwater level sensors installed on open wells to monitor the continuous fluctuation of water level at every 15 minutes. In addition to involving the local communities in data collection (e.g. manual rainfall measurement, water and soil sampling), this CZO also aims to provide relevant information to them for improving their sustainability. The preliminary results show significant heterogeneity in soil type, cropping system, fertilizer application, water quality, irrigation source etc. within a small catchment.

Studies of intraseasonal and annual cycles of meteorological variables, using projections of climate change, are nowadays extremely important to improve regional socio-economic planning for countries. This is particularly true in Costa Rica, as Central America has been identified as a climate change hot spot. Today many of the economic activities in the region, especially those related to agriculture, tourism and hydroelectric power generation are linked to the seasonal cycle of precipitation. Changes in rainfall (mm/day) and in the diurnal temperature range ($^{\circ}$C) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 were investigated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) constructed using the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5) data. Differences between the multi-model ensembles of the two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the retrospective baseline scenario were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion point of the climate change in the region and also suggests an early onset of the rainy season and future drying conditions.

Currently available soil volumetric water content (VWC) sensors have several drawbacks that pose certain challenges for implementation on large scale for farms. Such issues include cost, scalability, maintenance, wires running through fields, and single-spot resolution. The development of a passive soil moisture sensing system utilizing Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) would allay many of these issues. The type of passive RFID tags discussed in this paper currently cost between 8 to 15 cents retail per tag when purchased in bulk. An incredibly cheap, scalable, low-maintenance, wireless, high-resolution system for sensing soil moisture would be possible if such tags were introduced into the agricultural world. This paper discusses both the use cases as well as examines one implementation of the tags. In 2015, RFID tag manufacturer SmarTrac started selling RFID moisture sensing tags for use in the automotive industry to detect leaks during quality assurance. We place those tags in soil at a depth of 4 inches and compared the moisture levels sensed by the RFID tags with the relative permittivity (εr) of the soil as measured by an industry-standard probe. Using an equation derived by Topp et al, we converted to VWC. We tested this over a wide range of moisture conditions and found a statistically significant, correlational relationship between the sensor values from the RFID tags and the probe’s measurement of εr. We also identified a possible function for mapping vales from the RFID tag to the probe bounded by a reasonable margin of error.

Non-proteinaceous and proteinaceous biological aerosols are abundant within the atmosphere and have the potential to impact the climate through cloud and precipitation formation. In this study, we present the differences in the laboratory-measured freezing capabilities of the non-proteinaceous and proteinaceous biological materials to determine which has more potential to impact the ice nucleation in the clouds. As non-proteinaceous surrogates, we examined multiple cellulose materials (e.g., microcrystalline and nanocrystalline cellulose) whose sizes range from ~100 nm to >100 μm (according to manufacturer report). For proteinaceous proxies, we looked at different gram-negative bacteria, such as Pseudamonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli, Serratia marcescens, Citrobacter freundii, and Snomax, (which contains P. syringae) that can be found around the proximity of the Texas Panhandle. By using the Cryogenic Refrigeration Applied Freezing Test (CRAFT) system, we estimated immersion freezing efficiency (i.e., ice nucleation activity scaled to a unit of mass) of each sample at the temperatures greater than -30°C. We have observed that not all gram-negative bacteria has high immersion freezing activity, but the few do have a warmer temperature onset (>-20 °C) than the cellulose used. For those that did not exhibit substantial freezing efficiencies, they had similar freezing properties as the broth, in which the bacteria were incubated, as well as the cellulose materials examined. These observations suggest the presence and potential importance of bacterial cellulose in the atmospheric ice nucleation. From here, we need to conduct more in-depth investigation in the effects of a wider variety of atmospherically relevant biological aerosols to get a better understanding of the effects of said aerosols on overall aerosol-cloud interactions. Acknowledgments: K. Cory would like to acknowledge NSF-EAPSI and JSPS Summer Program for the travel fellowship support. N. Hiranuma acknowledges financial aids by the Higher Education Assistance Fund (HEAF), WTAMU Office of Graduate School and Killgore Research Center.

Soil samples (n = 45) and water samples (n = 111) were collected in the coastal zone of SW Bangladesh in wet (November) and dry (May) seasons in 2016 to identify the factors influencing soil arsenic concentrations. Soils are entisols formed from recently deposited, predominantly silt-sized sediments with low carbon concentrations typical of the local mangrove forests. Arsenic concentrations in bulk soil are higher in November than in May and vary little between sites. Arsenic concentrations in deionized H2O extracts are ~2 orders of magnitude lower, indicating only ~1% of As is soluble. Water samples show that As concentrations are highest in groundwater from tubewells. Bulk soil As is positively correlated with As concentration in irrigation water, suggesting that As from irrigation water is added to the soil. Unlike other water types, As in rice paddy water is much higher in the wet season, consistent with some fields being irrigated with tubewell water. Arsenic in rice paddy water increases by soil sulfide dissolution, and decreases by dilution during the monsoon. Water soluble As in rice paddy soils is positively correlated with S and DOC concentrations in rice paddy soil extracts due to sulfide dissolution and complexation with DOC. Thus, waterlogging of rice paddy soils leads to reducing conditions, the absence of ferric oxyhydroxides that could sorb As, and the presence of sulfides that incorporate As. As soil pH increases from 7 to 8, KD(soil/extract) increases, consistent with the observed positive correlation between irrigation water pH and bulk soil As concentration. Arsenic bioavailability could be decreased through soil aeration (draining and tilling) and by avoiding the use of groundwater for rice paddy irrigation.

The kinetic theory of twisted wave instability is developed for the nonthermal dusty plasmas in the presence of helical electric field carrying orbital angular momentum (OAM). The Laguerre Gaussian (LG) mode function is employed to decompose the mode into its longitudinal and azimuthal components. The longitudinal component illustrates the spatial while the azimuthal component describes the phasor variation of the wave. The dielectric functions of quasi-electrostatic dust ion acoustic (DIA) and dust acoustic (DA) twisted modes are obtained and solved analytically to calculate the growth rates. The numerical results are also shown pictorially.

80 years after aerial photography revealed thousands of aligned oval depressions on the USA’s Atlantic Coastal Plain, the geomorphology of the “Carolina bays” remains enigmatic. Geologists and astronomers alike hold that invoking a cosmic impact for their genesis is indefensible. Rather, the bays are commonly attributed to gradualistic fluvial, marine and/or aeolian processes operating during the Pleistocene era. The major axis orientations of Carolina bays are noted for varying statistically by latitude, suggesting that, should there be any merit to a cosmic hypothesis, a highly accurate triangulation network and suborbital analysis would yield a locus and allow for identification of a putative impact site. Digital elevation maps using LiDAR technology offer the precision necessary to measure their exquisitely-carved circumferential rims and orientations reliably. To support a comprehensive geospatial survey of Carolina bay landforms (Survey) we generated about a million km2 of false-color hsv-shaded bare-earth topographic maps as KML-JPEG tile sets for visualization on virtual globes. Considering the evidence contained in the Survey, we maintain that interdisciplinary research into a possible cosmic origin should be encouraged. Consensus opinion does hold a cosmic impact accountable for an enigmatic Pleistocene event - the Australasian tektite strewn field - despite the failure of a 60-year search to locate the causal astroblem. Ironically, a cosmic link to the Carolina bays is considered soundly falsified by the identical lack of a causal impact structure. Our conjecture suggests both these events are coeval with a cosmic impact into the Great Lakes area during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, at 786 ka ± 5 k. All Survey data and imagery produced for the Survey are available on the Internet to support independent research. A table of metrics for 50,000 bays examined for the Survey is available from an on-line Google Fusion Table: https://goo.gl/XTHKC4 . Each bay is also geospatially referenceable through a map containing clickable placemarks that provide information windows displaying that bay’s measurements as well as further links which allows visualization of the associated LiDAR imagery and the bay’s planform measurement overlay within the Google Earth virtual globe: https://goo.gl/EHR4Lf .

Examination of the radiation budget at the surface of the Earth shows that there are three factors affecting the surface temperature; the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the atmosphere and by the surface respectively, and the amount of leakage of infrared radiation emitted from the surface directly into space. If there were no leakage, the upwelling infrared radiation from the Earth’s surface would be equal to the incoming solar radiation absorbed by the atmosphere plus twice the solar radiation absorbed by the surface. This results from the summation of a sequence of equal upward and downward re-emissions of infrared radiation absorbed by the atmosphere following the initial absorption of solar radiation. At current levels of solar absorption, this would result in total upwelling radiation of approximately 398.6 W/m2, or a maximum surface temperature of 16.4°C. Allowing for leakage of infrared radiation through the atmospheric window, the resulting emission from the Earth’s surface is reduced to around 396 W/m2, corresponding to the current average global surface temperature of around 15.9°C. Absorption of solar and infrared radiation by greenhouse gases is determined by the absorption bands for the respective gases and their concentrations. Absorption of incoming solar radiation is largely by water vapor and ozone, and an increase in absorption would reduce not increase the surface temperature. Moreover, it is probable that all emitted infrared radiation that can be absorbed by greenhouse gases, primarily water vapor, with a small contribution from carbon dioxide and ozone, is already fully absorbed, and the leakage of around 5.5 % corresponds to the part of the infrared red spectrum that is not absorbed by greenhouse gases. The carbon dioxide absorption bands, which represent a very small percentage of the infrared spectrum, are most likely fully saturated. In these circumstances, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and carbon dioxide in particular, will have no effect on the emitted radiation. The surface temperature is probably at the thermodynamic limit for the current luminosity of the sun. Satellite based measurements since 1979 suggest that any global warming over the past 150 years may be due to an increase in total solar irradiance, which we are still a decade or two from being able to confirm.