Vadim Kosoy edited The_idea_of_assigning_probabilities__.tex  about 8 years ago

Commit id: 32ed8d96b5662d5888939a96ff47c55a4cf1b1de

deletions | additions      

       

The idea of assigning probabilities to purely mathematical questions was studied by several authors \cite{Gaifman_2004}\cite{Hutter_2013}\cite{Demski_2012}, \cite{Gaifman_2004}\cite{Hutter_2013}\cite{Demski_2012}\cite{Christiano_2014},  mainly in the setting of formal logic. That is, their approach was looking for functions from the set of sentences in some formal logical language to $[0,1]$. However, although there is a strong intuitive case for assigning probabilities to sentences like "7614829 is prime" it is much less clear there is a meaningful assignment of probabilities to sentences like $\varphi_1 := \text{"there are no odd perfect numbers"}$ or (even worse) $\varphi_2 := \text{"there is no cardinality } \kappa \text{ s.t. } \aleph_0 < \kappa < 2^{\aleph_0} \text{."}$. The problem is that a wager on $\varphi_1$ can only become resolved in one direction while a wager on $\varphi_2$ cannot be resolved at all.