Dan Sandiford edited Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis.tex  over 9 years ago

Commit id: fc38a844f57bca364607fc5a19db13dccced252a

deletions | additions      

       

In the last few decades, fault slip rates have increasingly been used to constrain earthquake recurrence relationships and inform hazard maps \cite{pace2006layered}. In Australia, this technique has been incorporated into a couple of previous studies \cite{brown2004multi, somerville2008contribution} . It is particularly useful in regions like Australia, however, where seismicity is relatively infrequent, historical records were likely derived from sparse networks and there are numerous geological features present that indicate recent seismic activity and that can be dated using a variety of techniques. Inclusion of fault sources represents a key point of difference between the current study and the latest national hazard map by Geoscience Australia.   Recently, PSHA has also come under criticism from a number of scientists (Klugel 2012; Stein et. al., 2012). \cite{klugel2012comment,stein2012earthquake}.  Criticisms range from a lack of model testing, failures of the prescribed maximum credible magnitude in past PSHA (e.g. in the case of Tohoku) to the assumption of Poisson statistics, and even inherent problems with energy conservation in the PSHA method. According to Klugel (2007), this amounts to a fundamental crisis for PSHA. Some of these criticisms may be overcome by modifications to the PSHA methodology, e.g. by using seismicity models that include short-term variations in their rates due to the time since the last large earthquake occurrence (Chan, 2013). Stirling (2013) observes that largest barrier to making PSHA effective in short term forecasting is the “inability to identify where/when major earthquakes are going to occur in areas/time periods of seismic quiescence. This is not a failing of PSHA methodology, but is one of the fundamental unknowns of seismology at the present time. “ This issue expressed by Stirling is of particular relevant to SCR seismicity, where earthquakes are clustered and infrequent. In this context, PSHA is still widely believed to offer a valuable, systematic integration of earthquake occurrence models (although crude) and ground motion models (although poorly constrained). \subsection{Ez-Frisk implementation of PSHA}