Dan Sandiford added Discussion.tex  over 9 years ago

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\section{Discussion}  \subsection{Summary}  This report summarises the evaluation of seismic hazard for southeastern Australia in a probabilistic framework. The peak ground acceleration recurrence estimates for Victoria using the Victorian Earthquake Hazard Map inputs, Chiou and Youngs (2008) attenuation, a minimum magnitude of 4.0 and a maximum value of 7.5, results in slightly higher values from past fault-inclusionary PSHA studies in Australia, e.g. Aus5. The values are significantly higher than those in the AEHM from Geoscience Australia (Burbidge, 2012). The reasons for this discrepancy are discussed in Appendix 2.  \subsection{Future directions}  The classical PSHA approach involves the definition of seismic sources. Typically evaluation of seismic hazard requires some degree of subjective judgment. The effect on the outcome is not usually acknowledged. This was apparent in the AUS5 hazard map (Brown and Gibson, 2004). In the Victorian Earthquake Hazard Map, an approach was used that used the contours of seismicity (point density) and in principle could be automated. Yet another approach involves defining continuous distributions of seismicity parameters (Frankel et al., 1996). Such a method would also lend itself to incorporating time-dependent analysis of the same parameters. These methods seem superior to the subjective approaches of the past when dealing with seismicity, however it is still not clear how other information should be incorporated, e.g. the types of geophysical datasets discussed in Appendix 1. The earthquake hazard community has typically not developed common tools for the creation of hazard map zones and the associated earthquake statistics. To some degree this is probably a result of modellers being both outcome rather as well data-driven. Common tools would likely produce hazard results deemed unrealistic, if applied to disparate areas. Such outcome-driven factors have been contributed to hazard maps in Australia, and, indeed, in this map, primarily through the imposition of bounds on the earthquake b values.   \subsection{Hazard map availability}  Victorian Earthquake Hazard Map inputs and outputs are available through the \href{http://vicquakehazmap.org/}{Victorian Earthquake Hazard Map website}. This will allow the outputs to be easily accessed by stakeholders, and the inputs to be reused by other researchers. Inputs to Victorian Earthquake Hazard Map will be made compatible for use with the Global Earthquake Model software (GEM), an open-source project that will be available late in 2014.