blasbenito edited discussion.tex  almost 9 years ago

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In this paper we present the first model of Neanderthals potential distribution across Europe during the Last Interglacial (Eemian, MIS 5e, ~130 ka BP). We have applied a robust state-of-the-art modeling approach to take advantage of a sparse set of archaeological records and a palaeoclimatic simulation to produce the model. We analyzed the model using regression-tree based statistical methods to assess how environmental variables shaped habitat suitability at continental and local scales, and assessed to what extent our preliminary hypothesis on the abiotic drivers of Neanderthals distribution matched the results of the model.  The discussion about the distribution of Neanderthals across Europe during the Eemian has been the focus of just a few papers during the last years \cite{Richter2005, Richter2006, Wenzel_2007, Gaudzinski2011}. \citet{Wenzel_2007} reviews a set of Eemian Neanderthal sites mostly placed in Central Europe, with just a few points located in the Mediterranean Europe (South of France, Croatia, and Central Italy). Wenzel discuses the nature of the archaeological remains, and how they have been interpreted to understand Neanderthals culture and behavior during the Eemian.  argues that Central Europe did not offer good environmental conditions, since the "shade forest phase" of MIS 5e was not suitable for the large herds of mammals hunted by Neanderthals.  \cite{Krause_2007} neanderthals in asia and siberia \cite{Beeton_2013}  Check the results of this paper!: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0003972 10.1371/journal.pone.0003972  \textbf{Given our conclusions, what is our new understanding of the distribution of Neanderthals and the abiotic factors shaping it?}  \textbf{How do the model results fit the hypothesis presented in the introduction?}  According to our proposed hypothesis, the northern edge of Neanderthals distribution should be controlled by cold winters due to low availability of small and big game and cold stress. Our model confirms that minimum temperature of the coldest month influences habitat suitability at the continental scale, but the local scale analysis shows that the low habitat suitability of places within and beyond the northern edge (for example: Southern Baltic coast, Jutland peninsula, Southern Sweden, Southern Finland) can be explained by a combination of cold winters and plain slopes (LARGE FORESTED PLAINS WITH LOW PRODUCTIVITY??).  

In the long term, the compartimentation of Neanderthal populations could have lead to genetic differentiation, as shown in \cite{Fabre_2009}. In this paper the authors studied genetic variation within twelve samples of mitochondrial DNA obtained from Neanderthal samples dated between 100 and 29 ka BP (but according to \cite{Higham_2014} the latter date may be more probably around 40 ka BP). They defined two genetic demes within our study area (see Fig. 2 in \cite{Fabre_2009}: a northern region that comprises the North of the Iberian Peninsula, Eastern France, Germany and the rest of central Europe; a southern region comprising the East of the Iberian Peninsula, South of France, Italian Peninsula, and the Balcans. These demes do not completely fit with our habitat suitability model: there seem to be connectivity between Eastern and Western Iberian Peninsula due to a corridor of suitable habitat at the south of Pyrenees, and between Western and Eastern France, that show a large extension of well connected suitable habitat. But both models agree in the important effect of the Alps as the main geographic accident shaping the separation between ecologically suitable areas and genetic demes. A detailed analysis of habitat suitability maps along with cultural and genetic evidences can help to understand the causes for gradients of cultural and genetic change across large territories.  \textbf{Given our conclusions, what is our new understanding of the distribution of Neanderthals and the abiotic factors shaping it?}  \textbf{What would be the next step in this research?}