blasbenito edited results.tex  over 9 years ago

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\textbf{Species distribution modeling}  The evaluation of the 4920 models (41 equations per 5 background radiuses per 24 presence records) showed that both AUC and adjusted explained deviance values increased with larger background radius (Fig. model screening). 37 36  models (combinations of equations and background radius) were above the selection thresholds for both AUC (0.65) and adjusted explained deviance (0.15). The average AUC values for the best models was 0.76 0.77  (0.04 standard deviation), while average explained deviance was 0.22 (0.06 standard deviation). The final habitat suitability model (Fig. model) showed high habitat suitability values and low standard deviation (high agreement among models) in central and southern France, Italian Peninsula, Mediterranean Islands, Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula, southern coast of the Black Sea and the Oriental coasts of the Mediterranean Sea. Mid to low habitat suitability values were found at the continental areas of the Iberian Peninsula, British islands, Dinaric Alps, Balcanicn Mountains, continental areas of Anatolia and southern coasts of the Baltic Sea. Very low habitat suitability values consistent with non suitable habitats were dominant across Alps, Pyrenees, North European Plains (continental areas of Poland, Belarus and Ukraine), across the Scandinavian Shield and the current Arabian Desert.