blasbenito edited materials_and_methods.tex  over 9 years ago

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We applied Random Forest \cite{Breiman20015} to analyze the influence of the environmental factors over Neanderthals habitat suitability at the continental scale. The ability of Random Forest to deal with non-linearity makes it perfect to analyse our ensemble, since non-linearity may arise when averaging the results of multiple GLMs. Also, Random Forest is regarded as a robust method to assess variable importance \cite{Cutler20072783}. We used both measures of variable importance available in the randomForest R function (Liaw and Wiener 2012): mean decrease in accuracy and total decrease in node impurities (node impurity: heterogeneity of target categories within a node).  To analyze the influence of environmental factors at the local scale, we firstly defined \textit{local scale} as the average home range of Neanderthals. According to \cite{Daujeard201232}, and based on the transportation of raw lithic materials, the regional mobility range of Neanderthals during the Middle Palaeolithic was around 50 kilometers. Other measures of mobility given by Roebreks et al. 1998 and (Feblot-Augustins 1993) are around 100 and 300 km, but we considered them to bee  too extense (REWORD!) large to be considered local. We divided the habitat suitability model and the predictors into 50 km cells, and fitted a linear model (lm function of the R software) separately for each predictor at each cell. We assigned to each of the 50 km cells the adjusted R squared, as a measure of local importance, the coefficient to measure the direction of the relationship, and the p-value to assess the statistical significance of the predictor's local importance. We mapped both the adjusted R squared and the coefficient values by hiding cells with non-significant relationship (p-value < 0.05) and less than 30 5 km cells. We also mapped variable importance and habitat suitability together by using the whithening method explained above, using color to code habitat suitability and whithening to code the local importance of the variables. Finally, we composed a categorical map showing the variable with the higher importance at the local scale at each cell to enhance the visual analysis. To analyze the local effect of temperature, water and topography, we repeated the previous process, but using the combinations bio6 + bio5, bio12 + bio18 and slope + topographic diversity to fit the local linear models.  The variability observed in the types of occupation sites in this region of the Rhone Valley, their seasonal recurrence and their stability (whatever their duration) within the long sequences of the Middle Palaeolithic and the regional mobility range (50e60 km according to the raw materials), allow association of the mode of mobility with a logistical system of territorial organisation e in the sense of functional and planning aspects