Trine Kellberg Nielsen edited results.tex  almost 9 years ago

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The evaluation approach showed that both AUC and adjusted explained deviance values increased with larger background radius (Fig. 2). 55 models (each model being a combinations of an equation and a background radius) were above the selection thresholds for both AUC (0.65) and adjusted explained deviance (0.15). The average AUC values for the best models was 0.78 (0.05 standard deviation), while average explained deviance was 0.23 (0.07 standard deviation).  The final habitat suitability model (Fig.3) (Fig. 3)  showed high habitat suitability values and low standard deviation (high agreement among models) in central and southern France, Italian Peninsula, Mediterranean Islands, Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula, southern coast of the Black Sea and the Oriental coasts of the Mediterranean Sea. Medium habitat suitability values were found at the continental areas of the Iberian Peninsula, British islands, Dinaric Alps, Balcanicn Mountains, continental areas of Anatolia and southern coasts of the Baltic Sea. Very low habitat suitability values consistent with non suitable habitats were dominant across Alps, Pyrenees, North European Plains (continental areas of Poland, Belarus and Ukraine), across the Scandinavian Shield, and the current Arabian Desert. The lack of agreement among the best models was high in the north of the British islands, Scandinavian Mountains, margins of the Alps and Pyrenees, Carpathian mountains, central plains and north western coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern limit of the Arabian desert. 

Finally, the model based on the local coefficients of the predictors showed that higher habitat suitability values happen when the coefficient of the slope is between 0.07 and -0.006 (zero indicates optimum slope) and the coefficient of the average temperature of the coldest month is lower than 0.004 (approaching zero and indicating optimum value for the predictor). A very high coefficient of the slope (>0.07) indicated a lack of rugosity in the terrain, and therefore low suitability, as in the Po Valley (ID=32), or the Pannonian Plain (ID=8).