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During the weeks after the elections were declared, Ofer Moshaioff, Yoav Ram and Idan Cohen developed a smartphone application ('app') called HAMIDGAM המדגם (). This app allowed users to anonymously vote for their party of choice in the upcoming elections (2015), and their actual vote in the previous elections (2013), and view the projected results of the elections based on the aggregated data from the entire user base.
The application was published for Android devices on the [Android Play Store](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.bmi.midgam) on December 29th, 2014 and for iPhone on the [Apple App Store](https://itunes.apple.com/il/app/hmdgm/id956943031?mt=8) on January 26th, 2015. It quickly gained media attention on local radio shows, digital media and newspapers. This media attention contributed to over
6,000 7,000 application downloads by March
2nd 15th 2015.
This Our app differs from traditional
surveys polls in several aspects.
In traditional
surveys, polls, media outlets publish forecasts based on a group
of 500-1,000 individuals that were chosen by a
survey polling institution at a specific point in time to reflect an unbiased sample of the population.
In contrast, our app allows users to view a realtime, online
projection forecast of the
election results elections based on individuals that contribute their
choices. votes. The sample size in our app is ~10-fold. However, in contrast to traditional
surveys, the polls, our app doesn't collect any demographic
information information, such as age, socio-economical status, religion and ethnicity. Therefore,
the our app's sample may be biased and therefore requires statistical standardization.
The Our app does collect information that is unique: first, the app allows users to change their mind at any time and it keep a history of user choices; second, it logs the precise time and ,if allowed by the device, location; third, the app asks users
what which party they voted
for in the previous elections (2013). Our hypothesis is that this information allows to make a
good forecast.
In
the following, this article we will describe how the app works, the
different methods we used to standardize the data, and the
results we got, including elections forecasts
and inferences regarding movement between parties and geographical disparity. we got.