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Omri Dor edited Discussion - Sources of Bias.tex
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In what way are our respondents \textbf{that voted for party i in 2013} different then the actual voting population \textbf{that voted for party i in 2013}. Some variables that may have played a role in biasing our sample could be:
\begin{enumerate}
\item
Sex. Age. It is
possible not unreasonable to assume that
females changed their minds (between 2013 and 2015) in a manner different then men. Ha'Mahane Ha'Zioni has a lot of women in their list, including Livni who is set young voters are more likely to
become prime minister through rotation with Herzog. As an vote for new, small, niche or extreme parties than are older voters. For example,
females older voters who voted for
Yesh Atid Likud in 2013
just might be are more likely to
switch to Ha'Mahane Ha'Zioni stick with Likud than
men are youngers voters, who
voted for Yesh Atid are in
2013. turn more likely to switch to Yahad or Kulanu. This same bias could explain the high number of seats projected for Meretz and the low number of seats projected for Israel Beytenu.
\end{enumerate}
\begin{enumerate}
\item
Age. Sex. It is
not unreasonable to assume possible that
young voters are more likely females changed their minds (between 2013 and 2015) in a manner different then men. Ha'Mahane Ha'Zioni has a lot of women in their list, including Livni who is set to
vote for new, small, niche or extreme parties than are older voters. For become prime minister through rotation with Herzog. As an example,
older voters females who voted for
Likud Yesh Atid in 2013
are more likely to stick with Likud than are youngers voters, who are in turn just might be more likely to switch to
Yahad or Kulanu. This same bias could explain the high number of seats projected for Meretz and the low number of seats projected Ha'Mahane Ha'Zioni than men who voted for
Israel Beytenu. Yesh Atid in 2013.
\end{enumerate}
Lastly, yet another possible cause for bias in the app data is that 2013 votes were only recorded after February 13th, and only in Android device. Therefore, the 2013 dataset contains only ~2400 votes, roughly a third of our entire sample.