Omri Dor edited Discussion - Sources of Bias.tex  about 9 years ago

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In what way are our respondents \textbf{that voted for party i in 2013} different then the actual voting population \textbf{that voted for party i in 2013}. Some variables that may have played a role in biasing our sample could be:  \begin{enumerate}  \item Sex. Age.  It is possible not unreasonable to assume  that females changed their minds (between 2013 and 2015) in a manner different then men. Ha'Mahane Ha'Zioni has a lot of women in their list, including Livni who is set young voters are more likely  to become prime minister through rotation with Herzog. As an vote for new, small, niche or extreme parties than are older voters. For  example, females older voters  who voted for Yesh Atid Likud  in 2013 just might be are  more likely to switch to Ha'Mahane Ha'Zioni stick with Likud  than men are youngers voters,  who voted for Yesh Atid are  in 2013. turn more likely to switch to Yahad or Kulanu. This same bias could explain the high number of seats projected for Meretz and the low number of seats projected for Israel Beytenu.  \end{enumerate}  \begin{enumerate}  \item Age. Sex.  It is not unreasonable to assume possible  that young voters are more likely females changed their minds (between 2013 and 2015) in a manner different then men. Ha'Mahane Ha'Zioni has a lot of women in their list, including Livni who is set  to vote for new, small, niche or extreme parties than are older voters. For become prime minister through rotation with Herzog. As an  example, older voters females  who voted for Likud Yesh Atid  in 2013 are more likely to stick with Likud than are youngers voters, who are in turn just might be  more likely to switch to Yahad or Kulanu. This same bias could explain the high number of seats projected for Meretz and the low number of seats projected Ha'Mahane Ha'Zioni than men who voted  for Israel Beytenu. Yesh Atid in 2013.  \end{enumerate}  Lastly, yet another possible cause for bias in the app data is that 2013 votes were only recorded after February 13th, and only in Android device. Therefore, the 2013 dataset contains only ~2400 votes, roughly a third of our entire sample.