<h1 class="ltx_title_section">Tweaking the model<br></h1><div><br></div><div>To reach the targets, first the supply side of the model is tweaked, then the demand side, and finally the costs are changed to make the transition affordable.&nbsp;<br></div><div><br></div><h2 class="ltx_title_subsection">Supply <br></h2><div>To reach the target that 27% of the energy used should come from renewable sources and the target of decreasing the CO2 emissions by 40%, the energy supply should become more renewable and sustainable. The first step is to decrease the dependence on unsustainable sources. The composition of fossil fuel electricity was made less carbon intensive by closing down coal fired power plants, and partially compensating with more gas fired power plants. This results in a lower emissions of CO2 because gas fired power plants produce about half of the CO2 that coal fired power plants produce.&nbsp;<br></div><div><br></div><div>However, these gas fired power plants do not produce enough electricity to meet the demand. So, area use targets concerning wind turbines were fully exploited by building wind turbines on the full area allowed by the target. This significantly decrease the CO2 emissions and the share of renewables, but also increased the costs. Furthermore, fifteen 12 MWe geothermal electricity power plants were constructed to produce electricity and about four 20 MWe extra solar PV plants.<br></div><div><br></div><div>For all non-electric transport, the share of bio-fuels is increased but does not fully replace the fossil fuels because the increase in the bio-footprint. The&nbsp;fuels used for road transport, diesel trains and ships should consist for 25% out of biodiesel or bio-ethanol. The same percentage holds for the mixing of green gas into the natural gas network.&nbsp;This way a transition can happen gradually and there is little to no change in infrastructure needed.<br></div><div><br></div><h2 class="ltx_title_subsection">Demand<br></h2><div>It is assumed that the prosperity of the Dutch citizens will
not change over the coming years. However, the population will increase to 17.3
million inhabitants (CBS, 2010). The outdoor temperature will increase by 1
degree, on average.<br></div><p>Concerning the energy systems of the households themselves,
it is expected that the national government will focus on insulating the
houses, therefore resulting in a doubling of the insulation levels of old and
new houses. The heating systems will shift from the conventional condensing
combi boilers to air and ground heat pumps and district heating systems. These
district heating systems will also become more sustainable by using geothermal
energy. Furthermore, the households will also start producing electricity
themselves by installing solar PV systems on 30% of all residences and solar
collectors on 10%. The appliances used in households (e.g. cooling, cooking,
dish washer, lighting) will run on electricity and become more efficient. &nbsp;<br></p><p>Office buildings will change similarly to households, but
more extensively. This is because organizations have more means to upgrade
their energy systems and because the office buildings have a smaller technical
lifespan, which means that energy systems can be renewed more easily. <br></p><p>The transportation demand will slowly shift from a
car-oriented transport system to a train-oriented transport system. The use of
cars will decrease because of car sharing, smart mobility and policy changes
and the use of trains will increase because of policy changes. Half of the cars
will run on electricity and a large share of trucks will run on compressed
natural gas. <br></p><p>The industry will produce heat and power more locally in gas
CHP plants and use more energy efficient processes. The agricultural sector
will also use CHP plants, next to heat pumps with thermal storage. <br></p><h2 class="ltx_title_subsection"><br></h2><div>By applying all these measures described above, the renewability, area use, and dependency targets are met. However, the affordability target is not met. To make the proposed transition possible, the costs of wind power will have to decrease by 10% for onshore and 30% for offshore plants. Also, solar power will have to become 40% cheaper.&nbsp;<br></div><div><br></div>