Tweaking the model

To reach the targets, first the supply side of the model is tweaked, then the demand side, and finally the costs are changed to make the transition affordable.

Supply

To reach the target that 27% of the energy used should come from renewable sources and the target of decreasing the CO2 emissions by 40%, the energy supply should become more renewable and sustainable. The first step is to decrease the dependence on unsustainable sources. The composition of fossil fuel electricity was made less carbon intensive by closing down coal fired power plants, and partially compensating with more gas fired power plants. This results in a lower emissions of CO2 because gas fired power plants produce about half of the CO2 that coal fired power plants produce.

However, these gas fired power plants do not produce enough electricity to meet the demand. So, area use targets concerning wind turbines were fully exploited by building wind turbines on the full area allowed by the target. This significantly decrease the CO2 emissions and the share of renewables, but also increased the costs. Furthermore, fifteen 12 MWe geothermal electricity power plants were constructed to produce electricity and about four 20 MWe extra solar PV plants.

For all non-electric transport, the share of bio-fuels is increased but does not fully replace the fossil fuels because the increase in the bio-footprint. The fuels used for road transport, diesel trains and ships should consist for 25% out of biodiesel or bio-ethanol. The same percentage holds for the mixing of green gas into the natural gas network.

id="auto-label-subsection-652038" class="ltx_title_subsection">Demand

It is assumed that the prosperity of the Dutch citizens will not change over the coming years. However, the population will increase to 17.3 million inhabitants (CBS,2010). The outdoor temperature will increase by 1 degree, on average.

average.

Concerning the energy systems of the households themselves, it is expected that the national government will focus on insulating the houses, therefore resulting in a doubling of the insulation levels of old and new houses. The heating systems will shift from the conventional condensing combi boilers to air and ground heat pumps and district heating systems. These district heating systems will also become more sustainable by using geothermal energy. Furthermore, the households will also start producing electricity themselves by installing solar PV systems on 30% of all residences and solar collectors on 10%. The appliances used in households (e.g. cooling, cooking, dish washer, lighting) will run on electricity and become more efficient.

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