Expected developments

The population of the Netherlands is expected to rise until 2035 (CBS, 2010). Bij By  2030, it is expected that about 17.3 million people live in the Netherlands. The average age of the population is expected to go up as life expectancy increases and immigration becomes an increasingly important part of population growth. York (2007) investigated the effects of demographics on energy demand in European countries. He found that energy demand is likely to drop as population decreases, but demand will increase as a larger share of the population is elderly. Since the population oh the Netherlands is both higher and has a higher share of elderly in 2030 than in 2012, it can be expected that ceteris paribus the energy demand of households will increase.

Technological advancements lead to efficiency improvements in existing technologies. The European Council (2014) sets an overall target for technological efficiency improvement to 27%, although it is not specified with regard to which year. For a branch of technology to become more efficient, technological development might nog even be needed. This can for example be seen in the "household appliances" section of the Energy Transition Model. This shows that a lot of household appliances do not yet have the best possible energy label, although these highly efficient appliances are already widely available.