Paul St-Aubin edited Results Motion Prediction.tex  almost 10 years ago

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\subsection{Sample Surrogate Safety  Analysis} A sample surrogate safety  analysis of three of the sites is demonstrated in Figure~\ref{fig:selected-site}. This shows trajectory tracks projected in and with respect to the scene, mean speed and heading, and spatial distribution of motion-pattern-predicted collision point density points  with a interaction-instant instantaneous  $probability > 1e5$ andinstantaneous  $TTC < 1.5 seconds$. % paul: the merging zone as a unit of analysis is not well defined. Add a figure if we have enough space  % paul->Nicolas: added a definition at the beginning of the section.  Figure~\ref{fig:ttc_distro_sample} demonstrates a  cross-sectional comparison ofConstant Velocity  TTC distributions based on motion prediction at constant velocity  for 20 merging zones for two contributing factors, each using all interaction-instant aggregation. K-S interaction instants. Kolmogorov-Smirnov  tests are performed between the distributions to quantify non-parametric dissimiltude. dissimilitude.  In the first diagram, a cross-sectional comparison is made for merge merging  zones situated nearer or further than 300 metres upstream from another intersection. When this distance exceeds 300 metres, the distribution mass appears to shift left except for a sharp increase in small TTC below 0.5 seconds. While It is so far unknown whether  this represents a smaller proportion of interactions, they are more "severe" measures small concentration  of TTC (i.e. closer to zero). low-TTC conflicts offsets all other increases in TTC.  This comparison remains therefore inconclusive. In the second diagram, a cross-sectional comparison is made between merge merging  zones with high approach traffic volume ratios and low approach traffic volume ratios, where $R$ is the flow ratio between approach volumes and total volumes at the merge merging  zone. In this comparison, a clear and consistent mass shift is observed, suggesting that high approach traffic volume ratios contribute to safer merging behaviour in a roundabout. % paul: When this distance exceeds 300 metres, the distribution mass appears to shift left -> right ?  % paul->Nicolas: Not entirely. There is a sharp increase in the 0-0.5 range, small number of possibly "severe" conflicts. Conclusion is therefor inconclusive.