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Nicolas Saunier edited subsection_Behaviour_and_Safety_Measures__.tex
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\subsubsection{Advanced Motion Prediction for TTC}
As stated previously,
computing the TTC requires motion prediction methods to identify collision course situations. The most common motion prediction method is constant velocity. Given the non-linear driving required to navigate the deflection induced by roundabout central islands and approaches, a more sophisticated
collision-course motion prediction model is used in this work instead: the
discretized motion pattern motion prediction model
based on discretized motion pattern developed specifically to address the issues of modeling movement in complex environments
\citep{St_Aubin_2014} i.e. $TTC_{cmp}$. It like roundabouts~\citep{St_Aubin_2014}. %It should be noted, however, that $TTC_{cmp}$ is by no means specific to roundabouts.
Another advantage of advanced motion prediction methods, e.g.\ using discretized motion patterns, is that hey are probabilistic, that is that they take into account the uncertainty about the future road user positions. They may therefore also predict multiple potential collision points with associated probabilities and TTC for any single instant of interaction between two road users. These multiple measures are simply aggregated into the expected TTC denoted $TTC_{cmp}$ \citep{Saunier_2010,St_Aubin_2014}.
Furthermore,
as was discussed, collision-courses and TTC
are modeled and is measured
continuously, continuously for two road users, unlike
measures of yPET which
result results in a single
measure between any two road users. Furthermore, multiple collision courses might be modeled at any one instant, resulting in multiple potential measures and collision points for any single instant of interaction between two road users. Probabilistic collision-course modeling, as in the case of discretized motion patterns, handle issues of multiple collision-courses by aggregating these measures of $TTC_{cmp}$ via a weighted average of collision-course probability \citep{St_Aubin_2014}.
Regardless of prediction method, this still leaves continuous values of measure. The TTC
over the time series
of instantaneous interactions between any two road users. The general approach to handling this issue is
to represent the entire timeseries with usually aggregated into a
single instant-aggregated signel value, typically the minimum (i.e. most severe) value at any instant in the timeseries \citep[e.g.][]{Laureshyn_2010}. This however is somewhat sensitive to noisy data and outliers, and as such a \nth{15}-centile value, $TTC_{15^{th}cmp}$,
might may be used instead \cite{St_Aubin_2016_thesis}.
\subsubsection{Data Analysis and Aggregation}