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\section{Discussion} \section{Discussion and Related Work}  \label{sec:discussion} In Section \ref{sec:computational-serendipity}, we applied our model  to evaluate the serendipity of an evolutionary music improvisation 
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transformatively. Our model outlines a path towards the development  of systems that can observe events that would otherwise not be  observed, take an interest in them, and transform the observations  into artefacts with lasting value. In Section \ref{sec:related}, this section,  we showed will show  how this the  modelgives  allows for me more  precise thinking than other existing work touching on this area. We will now then  discuss implications from our findings for future research. %\input{12a-recommendations}  %\input{12b-future-work-intro}  %\input{12c-future-work-conclusion}  \input{11related}  \subsection{Challenges for future research} \label{sec:recommendations}  Viewing the concepts in Section \ref{sec:by-example} through the 
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occurring problem. You would like to share your experience with  others.''  \end{quote}  There are many ways to describe a solution.  Meszaros and Doble remark,  \begin{quote}  \noindent ``What sets patterns apart is their ability to explain the  rationale for using the solution (the `why') in addition to describing  the solution (the `how').''  \end{quote}  Regarding the criteria that pattern writers seek to address:   \begin{quote}  \noindent ``The most appropriate solution to a problem in a context is  the one that best resolves the highest priority forces as determined  by the particular context.''  \end{quote}  %  %% Their article describes a number of criteria relevant to writing  %% good design patterns, e.g. \emph{Clear target audience},  %% \emph{Visible forces}, and \emph{Relationship to other patterns}.  %  Applying the solution achieves this resolution of forces, and a design  pattern shows how this works. The design pattern itself achieves  something further: it encapsulates knowledge in a brief, shareable  form. Tracing  the steps involved, we see that the creation of a new design pattern  is always somewhat serendipitous (Figure \ref{fig:pattern-schematic};  compare Figure \ref{fig:1b}).   To van Andel's assertion that ``The very moment I can plan or  programme `serendipity' it cannot be called serendipity anymore,'' we  reply that we can certainly describe patterns -- and programs -- with  built-in indeterminacy. Moreover, we can foster circumstances that  may make unexpected happy outcomes more likely, by developing systems  that increasingly address the challenges outlined in Section  \ref{sec:recommendations}. Such systems would have a chance of encountering  unexpected stimuli, becoming curious about them, sagaciously pursuing enquiry  together with others, and assessing the value of any outcomes.   %  Figure \ref{fig:va-pattern-figure} shows one approach to  planning for serendipity, based on rewriting one of van Andel's  serendipity patterns using the standard design pattern template. In  future work, we intend to build a more complete serendipity pattern  language -- and put it to work within autonomous programming systems.  % Is ``having a stretch goal'' an example of a serendipity pattern? I think so!  \begin{figure} \begin{figure}[!t]  \vspace{.3cm}  \input{pattern-schematic-tikz.tex}  \vspace{-.3cm}  \caption{The components of design patterns mapped to our process schematic\label{fig:pattern-schematic}}  \vspace{.5cm}  \end{figure}  \begin{figure}[!h] \begin{figure}[!t]  \setlist[description]{font=\normalfont\itshape}  {\normalsize  \begin{mdframed} 
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\caption{Standard design pattern template applied to van Andel's \em{Successful error}\label{fig:va-pattern-figure}}  \end{figure}  \noindent There are many ways to describe a solution. Meszaros and Doble remark,  \begin{quote}  \noindent ``What sets patterns apart is their ability to explain the  rationale for using the solution (the `why') in addition to describing  the solution (the `how').''  \end{quote}  Regarding the criteria that pattern writers seek to address:   \begin{quote}  \noindent ``The most appropriate solution to a problem in a context is  the one that best resolves the highest priority forces as determined  by the particular context.''  \end{quote}  %  %% Their article describes a number of criteria relevant to writing  %% good design patterns, e.g. \emph{Clear target audience},  %% \emph{Visible forces}, and \emph{Relationship to other patterns}.  %  Applying the solution achieves this resolution of forces in the  application domain.  The design pattern itself achieves something further: it encapsulates  knowledge in a brief, shareable form. Tracing the steps involved, we  see that the creation of a new design pattern is always somewhat  serendipitous (Figure \ref{fig:pattern-schematic}; compare Figure  \ref{fig:1b}).  To van Andel's assertion that ``The very moment I can plan or  programme `serendipity' it cannot be called serendipity anymore,'' we  reply that we can certainly describe patterns -- and programs -- with  built-in indeterminacy. Moreover, we can foster circumstances that  may make unexpected happy outcomes more likely, by developing systems  that increasingly address the challenges outlined in Section  \ref{sec:recommendations}. Such systems would have a chance of encountering  unexpected stimuli, becoming curious about them, sagaciously pursuing enquiry  together with others, and assessing the value of any outcomes.   %  Figure \ref{fig:va-pattern-figure} shows one approach to  planning for serendipity, based on rewriting one of van Andel's  serendipity patterns using the standard design pattern template. In  future work, we intend to build a more complete serendipity pattern  language -- and put it to work within autonomous programming systems.  % Is ``having a stretch goal'' an example of a serendipity pattern? I think so!  diff --git a/1introduction.tex b/1introduction.tex  index b93ef84..689e76b 100644  --- a/1introduction.tex  +++ b/1introduction.tex 
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Serendipity is centred on re-evaluation. For example, a failed  attempt to develop an ultra-strong superglue resulted in a  re-stickable, pressure sensitive re-stickable  adhesive that no one was quite sure how to use. After further considerable  trial and error, this turned out to be just the right ingredient for making the now ubiquitous Post-it\texttrademark\ notes. %  %  In this way, serendipity is related to deviations from expected or %  familiar patterns, and to new insight. %  When we consider the practical uses for weak glue, the possibility  that a life-saving antibiotic might be found growing on contaminated 
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computational context. \cite{pease2013discussion}. Beginning with a  survey of the historical definitions, perceptions, and examples of  serendipity in order to surfaces its several facets and features, we  thenmove on to  develop a process-based model of serendipity that can be applied to system design and  evaluation. \citeA{van1994anatomy} -- echoing the  (negative) reflections on the potential 
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If serendipity was ruled out as a matter of principle, computing would  be restricted to happy or unhappy \emph{unsurprises} -- preprogrammed,  preunderstood occurrences, as seen for example, in the behaviour of an  airplane's autopilot system occurrences  -- interspersed periodically, perhaps, with an \emph{unhappy} surprise, which would typically be put down to  programmer error. surprise.  Venkatesh Rao \citeyearpar{rao2015breaking} uses the term \emph{zemblanity} -- after William Boyd \citeyearpar{boyd2010armadillo}: ``zemblanity, the opposite of serendipity, the faculty of making unhappy, unlucky and expected discoveries by design'' -- to describe systems that are doomed to produce only unhappy unsurprises. According to Rao, this is the implied fate of systems that are tied inextricably to a fixed vision, from which any deviation constitues a mistake. This condition stands at a sharp contrast with the ``second-order cybernetics'' introduced by \citeA{von2003cybernetics}, which envisions systems that are able to specify their own purpose, and adapt it with respect to a wider environment. It also contrasts with Taleb's \citeyearpar{taleb2012antifragile} notion of ``antifragility'' in  which disturbances within a certain range strengthen the system.  \citeA{minsky1967programming} argues that any sufficiently complex 
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gracefully behaviour in response to unexpected circumstances, and a  preference for ``happy'' as opposed to ``unhappy'' outcomes may be  prerequisites for the development of autonomous systems that are  worthy of our trust. It would seem that planned or programmed  serendipity is just adjacent While not the same as ``Serendipity as a  Service'', such systems should at least be able  to this baseline for ethical machine  behaviour. recognise  serendipity when it happens.  Much less Less  controversial than ``programmed serendipity'', but no less worthy of study, is serendipity that arises in the course of user interaction. Indeed, social media already offers something  approaching ``Serendipity as a Service''. The user logs in hoping,  but with no guarantee, that they will find something interesting,  charming, or entertaining, and ultimately relevant to whatever is  going on in their life at the moment.  However, it should not be assumed that a system that can accommodate user interaction will directly can  lead to serendipity; take for example the use of a calculator, where the potential for serendipity through user interaction is minimal. The frameworks introduced in this paper are broad enough to be used in the design and evaluation of sociotechnical systems, and we will  touch on some examples, although however  we focus on modelling serendipity in a  computational systems. context.  In Section \ref{sec:literature-review}, we survey \ref{sec:literature-review} surveys  the broad literature on serendipity including the etymology of the term itself, and historical examples that  we will  use to scaffold our model. In Section \ref{sec:our-model} we present our own definition of serendipity,  which synthesises the understanding gained from these historical  examples, and prepares the way for evaluation of serendipity in  computational systems. Section \ref{sec:computational-serendipity}  examines three such case studies. Section \ref{sec:related} \ref{sec:discussion}  examines prior applications of the concept of serendipity in a computing  context. Section \ref{sec:discussion} computing, and  offers recommendations for researchers working in the computational modelling of serendipity and related areas such as computational creativity, and creativity. It also  describes our own plans for future work. Section \ref{sec:conclusion} reviews the contributions of this paper towards computational modelling and evaluation of serendipity. diff --git a/2literature.tex b/2literature.tex  index ec05d2a..50e55f5 100644  --- a/2literature.tex  +++ b/2literature.tex 
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\& sagacity, of things which they were not in quest of}[.]''~\cite[p. 633]{van1994anatomy}  \end{quote}  The same story formed part of the inspiration for Voltaire's \emph{Zadig}, and ``the method of Zadig'' was used as a term of art in 19th Century philosophy of science \cite{huxley1894science}.  Walpole's term ``serendipity'' washad been  used in print only 135 times up until the before  1958, according to the survey carried out by Robert Merton and Elinor Barber, collected in \emph{The Travels and Adventures of Serendipity} \citep{merton}. Merton describes his own understanding of a generalised ``serendipity pattern'' and its constituent parts as follows: \begin{quote}  ``\emph{The serendipity pattern refers to the fairly common experience of observing an \emph{\textbf{unanticipated}}, \emph{\textbf{anomalous}} \emph{\textbf{and strategic}} datum which becomes the occasion for developing a new theory or for extending an existing theory.}''~\cite[p. 506]{merton1948bearing}~{[}emphasis in original{]} 
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\end{quote}  Large-scale scientific and technical projects generally rely on the  convergence of interests of key actors and on other cultural factors.  For example, Umberto Eco describes the historical role of serendipitous mistakes mistakes, falsehoods,  and falsehoods rumors  in the production of knowledge \citeyear{eco2013serendipities}. It is important to note that serendipity Serendipity  is usually discussed within the context of \emph{discovery}, rather than \emph{creativity},  although in everyday parlance the latter two terms are closely related  \cite{jordanous12jims}. In the definition of serendipity that we present in Section \ref{sec:our-model}, we make use 
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questions ``whether it is a matter of luck at all'' because of the  work and knowledge involved in the process of assessment.  %  The perspective developed here in the current paper  sharpens these understandings in two ways: firstly, we point out that work is involved in both phases of the process (even when chance plays a role), and secondly, following Bergson we defer true ``novelty'' to the invention phase. %% In other words, serendipity involves creative making. Furthermore, we  %% emphasise the importance of active, agential discernment over more  %% passive stumbling. 
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We can point to process-level parallels between definitions of  serendipity like Merton's, quoted above, and previous definitions of  creativity. Cs\'ikszentmih\'alyi's understanding of creativity within perspective is particularly  suggestive regarding the way in which unanticipated, anomalous, and  strategic data might arise and move through  a social context, for example: system:  \begin{quote}  ``{[}C{]}\emph{reativity results from the interaction of a system  composed of three elements: a culture that contains  
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%% there is also much disagreement and discussion -- for example,  %% about the relevance of the social context.  A An  often-cited five-stage model of creativity, based on \emph{preparation}, \emph{incubation}, \emph{insight},  \emph{evaluation}, followed by \emph{elaboration} \citeA[pp.~79--80, after \citeA{wallas1926art}]{csikszentmihalyi1997flow} is particularly similar to parallels  the model of serendipity that we develop in Section \ref{sec:our-model}. %%  However, this is a parallel and not an equivalence.  We will There, we  adapt a general-purpose framework for evalutating creative systems \cite{jordanous:12} to use in evaluating a system's potential  for serendipity. These evaluations assume that several relatively  generic criteria may be measured. The following section surveys those 
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\subsubsection{Components of serendipity.}  A focus shift is brought about by the meeting of a \emph{serendipity trigger} \emph{prepared mind}  and a \emph{prepared mind}. \emph{trigger}.  The next step involves building a \emph{bridge} to a valuable \emph{result}. \begin{itemize}  \item \textbf{Prepared mind}:  
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\end{itemize}  \begin{itemize}  \item \textbf{Serendipity trigger}: \textbf{Trigger}:  The trigger does not directly cause the outcome, but rather, inspires a new insight. It was long  known by Quechua medics that cinchona bark stops shivering. In  particular, it worked well to stop shivering in malaria patients, as 
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\begin{itemize}  \item \textbf{Bridge}: The bridge often includes reasoning techniques,  such as abductive inference (what might cause a clear patch in a  petri dish?); dish?),  analogical reasoning (de Mestral constructed a target domain from the source domain of burrs hooked onto fabric); and fabric), or  conceptual blending (Kekul\'e, discoverer of the benzene ring  structure, blended his knowledge of molecule structure with his  vision dream image  of a snake biting its tail). The bridge may be non-conceptual, relying on new social arrangements, or physical  prototypes. It may have many steps, and, like the trigger, it and  may itself  feature chance elements. Several serendipitous episodes may be chained together in sequence, on the way to an unprecedented result. C\'edric Villani \citeyear[p.~16]{birth-of-a-theorem} \citeyear[pp.~15--16]{birth-of-a-theorem}  describes a two  hallway conversation conversations that happened in one day, the first with Freddy  Bouchet, about the way galaxies stabilise -- ``I was thrilled to see  Landau damping suddenly make another appearance, scarcely more than  a week after my discussion with Cl\'ement [Mouhot]'' -- and the  second  with his colleague \'Etienne Ghys, who said offered an unexpected  link to Komolgorov-Arnold-Moser theory:  ``I didn't really want to say anything, C\'edric, but those figures there on the board -- I've seen them before.'' \end{itemize}  \begin{itemize} 
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\item \textbf{Curiosity}: Curiosity can dispose a creative person to  begin or to continue a search into unfamiliar territory. We use  this word to describe both simple curiosity and related deeper  drives. Charles Goodyear \citeyear{goodyear1855gum} discoverer of  the process for vulcanising rubber, first noticed that when the  compound he was working with ``being carelessly brought into contact  with a hot stove, charred like leather'' and in subsequent  experiments observed that ``upon the edge of the charred portion  appeared a line or border, that was not charred, but perfectly  cured.'' In his autobiography he  reflects on the role curiosity  played in shaping  his own life experience as follows: career:  ``[F]rom the time his attention was first given to the subject, a strong and abiding impression was made upon his mind, that an object so desirable and important, and so necessary to man's comfort, as the making of gum-elastic available to his use, was most certainly placed within his reach. Having this presentiment, of which he could not divest himself, under the most  trying adversity, he was stimulated with the hope of ultimately  attaining this object.'' 
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``wisdom,'' ``insight,'' and especially to ``taste'' -- and  describes the attributes, or skill, of the discoverer that  contribute to forming the bridge between the trigger and the result.  \citeA{merton1948bearing} Merton \citeyearpar[p.~507]{merton1948bearing}  writes: ``{[}M{]}en had for centuries noticed such `trivial' occurrences as slips of the tongue, slips of the pen, typographical errors, and lapses of memory, but it required the theoretic sensitivity of a Freud to see these as strategic data through which he could extend his theory of repression and symptomatic acts.'' The degree to which such data  are \emph{prima facie} unanticipated and anomalous is clear. Merton  seems prepared to accept without complaint that Freud's claims  surrounding this data are part of ``an idealized story''  \cite{freudtheory}. For Merton ``what the observer brings to the  datum'' is an essential aspect of strategy; his key criterion is  that the result ``must permit of implications which bear upon  generalised theory'' -- not that it be correct. The dimension of  sagacity can also go some way towards describing, if not explaining,  how it is this person rather than that person makes a particular  societal contribution. For example, Edward Jenner was not the first  person to observe that cowpox innoculation prevents smallpox  contagion, but his experimental verification of this principle, and  his development and promotion of the first ``vaccines'' were  important scientific and social advances \cite{riedel2005edward}.  \end{itemize}  %% Note that the chance ``discovery'' of, say, a \pounds 10 note may 
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\begin{itemize}  \item \textbf{Value}: Serendipity concerns happy surprises, but  readings of different parties may have different judgements as to whether  a given situation as is  ``happy'' or ``surprising'' may be  different for different parties. ``surprising''.  A third party judgement of value can help to discriminate between mere luck luck, sleight of  hand,  and actual bona fide  value creation. Consider the difference between the two sayings ``One man's loss is another man's gain'' and ``One man's trash is another man's treasure.''In the first case, it is unlikely that new value  has been created, whereas the second case evokes a non-zero sum.  A literal example of this second the  latter  scenario is provided by the Swiss company Freitag, which was started by design students who built a business around ``upcycling'' used truck tarpaulins into bags and backpacks. Thanks in part to clever marketing \cite[pp. 54--55, 68--69,]{russo2010companies}, their product is now a global brand. Wherever possible, we prefer to make use ofan  independent judgement judgements  of value \cite{jordanous:12}. value, which helps to  capture a non-zero sum notion of value.  \end{itemize}  \subsubsection{Environmental factors.} 
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``Semmer saw the horses' return to good health as a problem that  made it impossible for him to investigate the cause of their death,  and reported \ldots\ on how he had succeeded in eliminating the  mould from his laboratory!'' This example shows that knowledge is  not the only relevant condition for mental preparedness: the  investigator also needs to have a suitable frame of mind, one that  is ready to make a jump into the unknown as the world changes. In a  certain sense it is necessary to be able to ``overcome'' situated  cognition, or at least be ready Whereas readiness  to revise the approach as the situation changes \cite{bereiter1997situated}. is an important aspect of a prepared  mind \cite{bereiter1997situated}, the changing situation itself  clearly makes a contribution.  \end{itemize}  \begin{itemize}  \item \textbf{Multiple contexts}: One of the dynamical aspects at play  may be the discoverer discoverer/inventor  going back and forth between different contexts with different stimuli. 3M employee Arthur Fry sang in a church choir and needed a good way to mark pages in his hymn book;  he book -- and  happened to have been recently  attending internal  seminars offered by his colleague Spencer  Silver about restickable glue. \end{itemize}  \begin{itemize}  \item \textbf{Multiple tasks}: Even within what would typically be  seen as a single context, a discoverer may take Einstein's work at the patent office  seems to have been fortuitous not because it gave him ideas, but  because it gave him time to work  on multiple tasks his ideas, famously resulting in  four fundamental papers in 1905. Two decades later, translating his  correspondent Satyendra Nath Bose's paper from English to German,  Einstein learned a calculation method  that segment the context produced accurate  physical results, despite implicitly making nonstandard physical  assumptions \cite{delbruck1980bose}. Subsequent further examination  of these ideas led to fundamentally new insights  into sub-contexts, or that cause physics. The  potential for interrelationships between  the investigator tasks -- and the  ability  to look in more than one direction. The carry the  tasks may have  an interesting \emph{overlap}, or they may point through -- seems  to be more important  than the raw number of tasks. In John Barth's  \citeyearpar{barth1992last} novel \emph{The Last Voyage of Somebody  the Sailor}, the author gives himself three main tasks: writing  what reads as  a \emph{gap} in  knowledge. For example, Penzias straightforward semi-autobiographical fiction,  writing an historical fantasy,  and Wilson used a  large antenna to detect radio waves that were relayed by bouncing  off interweaving (and finally  merging) these two stories. The result includes numerous examples  of satellites. After they had removed interference effects due what the text refers  to radar, radio, as ``logistically assisted serendipity''  \cite[p.~311]{barth1992last}, through repeated or varied images  and heat, they found residual ambient noise that  couldn't be eliminated. plot points.  \end{itemize}  \begin{itemize}  \item \textbf{Multiple influences}: The bridge from trigger to result is often found by making use of a social network, thus, network. For example, Arno  Penzias and Wilson Robert Wilson, working at Bell Labs, used a large  antenna to detect radio waves that were relayed by bouncing off   satellites. After they had removed interference effects due to  radar, radio, and heat, they found residual ambient noise that  couldn't be eliminated. They were mystified, and  only understood the significance of their work after reading a friend at MIT told them about  a preprint by Jim Peebles that astrophysicists at near-by Princeton, who had  hypothesised the possibility of measuring radiation released by the big bang. \end{itemize}  \noindent We In Sections \ref{sec:our-model} and  \ref{sec:computational-serendipity}, we  will show how the key condition, components, dimensions and environmental factors of serendipity discussed here  can be modelled and assessed in computational systems in Sections \ref{sec:our-model}  and \ref{sec:computational-serendipity}. systems.  % \input{2c-related-work.tex}  diff --git a/6SPECS.tex b/6SPECS.tex  index 9e9b204..a51bda6 100644  --- a/6SPECS.tex  +++ b/6SPECS.tex 
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Do we estimate the chance of the trigger appearing according to the  trigger's uniqueness, or some other feature? Consider de Mestral's  encounter with burrs. The chance probability  of encountering burrs while out walking is high, and many people have had a similar experience before  and since. The unique features of de Mestral's experience are that he  had the curiosity to investigate the burrs under a microscope, and the  diff --git a/bibliography/biblio.bib b/bibliography/biblio.bib  index 4a05366..3e2f124 100644  --- a/bibliography/biblio.bib  +++ b/bibliography/biblio.bib 
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year={1994},  publisher={Ablex},  place={Norwood, NJ}  } @article{merton1936unanticipated,  title={The unanticipated consequences of purposive social action},  author={Merton, Robert K},  journal={American sociological review},  volume={1},  number={6},  pages={894--904},  year={1936},  publisher={JSTOR}  }  @article{freudtheory,  title={Freud's {T}heories of {R}epression and {M}emory: {A} {C}ritique of \emph{{F}reud and {F}alse {M}emory {S}yndrome} by {P}hil {M}ollon},  author={Esterson, Allen},  journal={The Scientific Review of Mental Health Practice},  volume={2},  number={2},  year={2003},  }  @book{highfield1994private,  title={The private lives of {A}lbert {E}instein},  author={Highfield, Roger and Carter, Paul},  year={1994},  publisher={Macmillan}  }  @book{barth1992last,  title={The {L}ast {V}oyage of {S}omebody the {S}ailor},  author={Barth, John},  year={1992},  publisher={Anchor}  }  @article{delbruck1980bose,  title={Was {B}ose-{E}instein statistics arrived at by serendipity?},  author={Delbruck, M},  journal={Journal of Chemical Education},  volume={57},  number={7},  pages={467},  year={1980},  publisher={ACS Publications}  }  diff --git a/serendipity.tex b/serendipity.tex  index 1c9561e..e9b8cf6 100644  --- a/serendipity.tex  +++ b/serendipity.tex 
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\input{3model.tex}  \input{6SPECS.tex}  \input{8cc.tex}  \input{11related}  \input{12discussion}  \input{13conclusion}