Damien Irving edited discussion.tex  about 8 years ago

Commit id: d8ec924399b7cfaf248941a7fcd094fc8872c77f

deletions | additions      

       

With respect to trends in the PSA pattern over the period 1979--2014, a trend towards the negative phase was identified on an annual basis and also during summer, autumn and winter. This autumn trend (and the high latitude temperature and sea ice anomalies associated with the negative phase of the PSA pattern) is consistent with the work of \citet{Ding2013}, who found that autumn warming over the Antarctic Peninsula and associated sea ice declines over the Bellingshausen Sea are associated with an atmospheric circulation resembling the negative phase of the PSA pattern. While this explanation makes sense on the eastern flank of the central circulation anomaly associated with that pattern, the negative phase of the PSA pattern is also associated with strong cooling over West Antarctica. Autumn temperature declines have not been observed in that region, and thus our results suggest that the PSA-related cooling must have been offset by other factors.   In contrast to the autumn warming over the Antarctic Peninsula, winter warming over West Antarctica has been associated with an atmospheric circulation resembling the positive phase of the PSA pattern \citep{Ding2011}. Our climatology revealed a (albeit non-significant) trend towards the negative phase of the PSA pattern during winter, which raises the question: how is it that winter temperature trends over West Antarctica are associated with an atmospheric circulation resembling the positive phase of the PSA pattern, but a climatology of PSA pattern activity reveals a trend that directly opposes that finding? One possible answer to this question comes from \citet{Li2015a}. They analyzed Rossby wave trains associated with observed SST trends in the tropical Atlantic, tropical Indian, west Pacific and east Pacific regions and found that all four have a center of action over the Amundsen Sea. While none of these individual wave trains resembled the PSA pattern, a linear combination of the four of them did (with the tropical Atlantic and west Pacific identified as most influential). In other words, the integrated influence of tropical SST trends on the atmospheric circulation resembles the positive phase of the PSA pattern, but the waves underpinning that teleconnection do not. This result is consistent with an earlier study that identified the tropical Atlantic as a driver of recent winter trends in West Antarctica \citep{Li2014}. Another possible answer comes from \citet{Fogt2015}, who suggest that radiative forcing has played a role in Amundsen Sea Low trends that are consistent with winter warming in West Antarctica. The absence of any springtime trend in the PSA pattern suggests that it has also not played a role in high latitude warming during that season. Similar to winter, the Atlantic has been linked to warming in West Antarctica during spring \citep{Simpkins2014}, while others point to a more meridionally oriented wave train associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation \citet{Clem2015,Clem2015a}. \citep{Clem2015,Clem2015a}.  This idea that wave trains from the tropical Atlantic and/or radiatively forced Amundsen Sea Low variability might be responsible for a teleconnection resembling the PSA pattern (i.e. as opposed to changes in actual PSA pattern activity) goes to the heart of the reversibility argument made at the beginning of this paper. For a proposed teleconnection to be robust, it must be evident when looking through the lens of both the variable and mechanism of interest. However, even if these alternative explanations do reconcile the discrepancy between our climatology and winter warming over West Antarctica, the associated circulation anomaly would bring cooler conditions and wind-driven increases in sea ice along the western Antarctic Peninsula, contrary to the observed warming and sea ice declines \citep{Clem2015}. One possible explanation is that the negative autumn sea ice anomalies persist into winter \citep{Ding2013}, however it is clear that there is still work to be done to fully understand recent winter temperature and sea ice changes in the region.