Damien Irving edited discussion.tex  about 8 years ago

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A novel methodology has been presented for objectively identifying the PSA pattern. By rotating the global coordinate system such that the equator (a great circle path) traces the approximate path of the PSA pattern, the method was able to utilize Fourier analysis to quantify the phase and amplitude of wave-like variability in the PSA sector. In reconciling the results of this Fourier analysis with existing EOF-based definitions of the PSA pattern, a strong resemblance was found between the existing PSA-1 mode and the spatial pattern corresponding to the bimodal phase peaks of wavenumber 5--6 dominant variability in the PSA sector. The lack of a higher-order, multi-modal phase distribution may explain the degenerate nature of the existing PSA-2 mode (and the difficulty that researchers have had in identifying a tropical driver of that mode). It would appear that together, the degenerate EOF-2 / EOF-3 pair (e.g. Figure \ref{fig:eof}) may simply represent the remaining wavenumber 5--6 variability in the PSA sector, which likely comprises of contributions from the hemispheric zonal wavenumber three pattern as well as isolated Amundsen Sea Low and Antarctic Dipole variability.   The bimodal phase peaks were used as a means to define the positive and negative phase of the PSA pattern. The climatology arising from this definition revealed that the PSA pattern is most active during winter and spring. It often persists for months at a time and propagates to the east on average, however it is worth noting that a substantial number of events remain relatively stationary or even propagate to the west. The pattern was also shown to have a strong influence on regional temperature, precipitation and sea ice variability. With respect to the former, our results confirm existing relationships established between pattern and station temperatures over the Antarctic Peninsula \citep[e.g.][]{Schneider2012,Yu2012}, extending the regional picture to highlight equally strong temperature anomalies (of opposite sign) over West Antarctica. Large precipitation anomalies were also identified along the coast of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, as well as over South America. These South American anomalies show a more complex spatial pattern than previous analyses (perhaps due to the higher resolution data), but are otherwise broadly consistent with the results of \citet{Mo2001}, who found the positive phase of the PSA pattern to be associated with anomalously wet conditions over southern South America and anomalously dry conditions further north. Previous studies also indicate that the PSA pattern plays an important role in sea ice variability in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas \citep{Raphael2015}. \citep{Raphael2014}.  Our results suggest that this role is not uniform across that region, with composites of the positive phase of the PSA pattern simultaneously displaying positive sea ice anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea and negative in the Amundsen Sea. With respect to trends in the PSA pattern over the period 1979--2014, a trend towards the negative phase was identified on an annual basis and also during summer, autumn and winter. This autumn trend (and the high latitude temperature and sea ice anomalies associated with the negative phase of the PSA pattern) is consistent with the work of \citet{Ding2013}, who found that autumn warming over the Antarctic Peninsula and associated sea ice declines over the Bellingshausen Sea are associated with an atmospheric circulation resembling the negative phase of the PSA pattern. While this explanation makes sense on the eastern flank of the central circulation anomaly associated with that pattern, the negative phase of the PSA pattern is also associated with strong cooling over West Antarctica. Autumn temperature declines have not been observed in that region, and thus our results suggest that the PSA-related cooling must have been offset by other factors.