Damien Irving edited discussion.tex  over 8 years ago

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In contrast to the autumn warming over the Antarctic Peninsula, winter warming over West Antarctica has been associated with an atmospheric circulation resembling the positive phase of the PSA pattern \citep{Ding2011}. Our climatology revealed a non-significant trend towards the negative phase of the PSA pattern during winter, which begs the question: how is it that West Antarctic temperature trends for winter are associated with an atmospheric circulation resembling the positive phase of the PSA pattern, but a climatology of PSA pattern activity does not reveal trends consistent with that finding? The answer to this question may have been uncovered by \citet{Li2015a}. They analyze the Rossby wave trains associated with observed SST trends in the tropical Atlantic, tropical Indian, west Pacific and east Pacific regions and find that all four have a center of action over the Amundsen Sea. While none of these individual wave trains resemble the PSA pattern, a linear combination of the four of them does (with the tropical Atlantic and west Pacific identified as most influential). In other words, the integrated influence of tropical SST trends on the atmospheric circulation resembles the PSA pattern, but the waves underpinning that teleconnection do not. This result is consistent with earlier studies that identified the tropical Atlantic as a driver of recent trends in West Antarctica \citep{Li2014,Simpkins2014} and goes to the heart of the argument made at the beginning of this paper: for a proposed teleconnection to be robust, it must go both ways.   While the work of \citet{Li2015a} appears to reconcile the discrepancy between our climatology and \citet{Ding2011}, similar to the autumn case the story is not consistent on both flanks. flanks.... There is therefore still work to be done to fully understand recent trends in the region.  From Clem and Fogt (2015): According to Ding2011, increasing SSTs in the central tropical Pacific generate a Rossby wave train similar to the PSA, which produces positive geopotential height anomalies in the Amundsen Sea in winter, driving increased warm air advection onto West Antarctic on its western flank. This scenario would be associated with cooling and wind-driven increases in sea ice along the wester Antarctic Peninsula in winter, contrary to the observed warming and decreases in sea ice extent there. Therefore, the high southern latitude regional circulation changes associated with tropical Pacific SSts are not fully understood...  The reason for those trends might be SAM/ENSO coupling: From Clem2013: Fogt et al. [2011] found that the strength of the ENSO teleconnection to the South Pacific is governed by the coupling of ENSO with the SAM. When an El Nino (La Nina) event occurs with a negative (positive) SAM event, the two climate patterns are said to be ‘in phase’, and the ENSO teleconnection to the South Pacific is stronger than average. Fogt et al. [2011] also noted that when ENSO and SAM are ‘out of phase’ [when an El Nino (La Nina) event occurs with a positive (negative) SAM event], the teleconnection is significantly weakened, displaced, or altogether absent. Using this ENSO-SAM relationship, Fogt and Bromwich [2006] determined that the overall weak ENSO teleconnection to the South Pacific in SON during the 1980s was due to a negative correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the SAM index, indicating an out-of-phase relationship between these two modes. In the 1990s, the correlation became significantly positive, and as a result, the teleconnection was amplified.