Damien Irving Added variability literature  about 8 years ago

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\section{Discussion}  A novel methodology has been presented for objectively identifying the PSA pattern. By rotating the global coordinate system such that the equator (a great circle path) traces the approximate path of the PSA pattern, the method was able to utilize Fourier analysis to quantify the phase and amplitude of wave-like variability in the PSA sector. The climatology produced from In reconciling  the application results  of this method revealed that Fourier analysis with existing EOF-based definitions of  the PSA pattern often persists for months at pattern,  a time. There strong resemblance  was an almost equal split found  betweenevents that propagate (to  the east) and those that remain relatively stationary, existing PSA-1 mode  and the spatial  pattern is most active during winter and spring. corresponding to the bimodal phase peaks of wavenumber 5--6 dominant variability in the PSA sector.  The pattern has lack of  a strong influence on temperature and precipitation variability over West Antarctica and higher-order, multi-modal phase distribution may explain  the Antarctic Peninsula, and on sea ice degenerate nature of the existing PSA-2 mode (and the difficulty that researchers have had in identifying a tropical driver of that mode). It would appear that together, the degenerate EOF-2 / EOF-3 pair (e.g. Figure \ref{fig:eof}) may simply represent the remaining wavenumber 5--6  variability in the adjacent Amundsen, Bellingshausen PSA sector, which likely comprises of contributions from the hemispheric zonal wavenumber three pattern as well as isolated Amundsen Sea Low  and Weddell Seas. Antarctic Dipole variability.  In reconciling The bimodal phase peaks were used as a means to define  the results positive and negative phase  of the Fourier analysis with existing EOF-based definitions of PSA pattern. The climatology arising from this definition revealed that  the PSA pattern, pattern is most active during winter and spring. It often persists for months at  a strong resemblance time and propagates to the east on average, however it is worth noting that a substantial number of events remain relatively stationary or even propagate to the west. The pattern  was found between also shown to have a strong influence on regional temperature, precipitation and sea ice variability. With respect to  the former, our results confirm  existing PSA-1 mode relationships established between pattern  and station temperatures over  the spatial pattern corresponding Antarctic Peninsula \citep[e.g.][]{Schneider2012,Yu2012}, extending the regional picture  to highlight equally strong temperature anomalies (of opposite sign) over West Antarctica. Large precipitation anomalies were also identified along  the bimodal phase peaks coast  of wavenumber 5--6 dominant variability in West Antarctica and  the PSA sector. The lack of Antarctic Peninsula, as well as over South America. These South American anomalies show  a higher-order, multi-modal phase distribution may explain more complex spatial pattern than previous analyses (perhaps due to  the degenerate nature higher resolution data), but are otherwise broadly consistent with the results  of \citet{Mo2001}, who found  the existing PSA-2 mode (and positive phase of  the difficulty PSA pattern to be associated with anomalously wet conditions over southern South America and anomalously dry conditions further north. Previous studies also indicate  that researchers have had the PSA pattern plays an important role  in identifying a tropical driver of that mode). It would appear that together, the degenerate EOF-2 / EOF-3 pair (e.g. Figure \ref{fig:eof}) may simply represent the remaining wavenumber 5--6 sea ice  variability in the PSA sector, which likely comprises Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas \citep{Raphael2015}. Our results suggest that this role is not uniform across that region, with composites  ofcontributions from  the hemispheric zonal wavenumber three positive phase of the PSA  pattern as well as isolated Amundsen simultaneously displaying positive sea ice anomalies in the Bellingshausen  SeaLow  and Antarctic Dipole variability. negative in the Amundsen Sea.  By using the bimodal phase peaks as a means With respect  to define trends in the  PSA pattern activity, it was possible to identify over the period 1979--2014,  a trend towards the negative phase of the pattern over the period 1979--2014 was identified  on an annual basis and also during summer, autumn and winter. This autumn trend (and the high latitude temperature and sea ice anomalies associated with the negative phase of the PSA pattern) is consistent with the work of \citet{Ding2013}, who found that autumn warming over the Antarctic Peninsula and associated sea ice declines over the Bellingshausen Sea are associated with an atmospheric circulation resembling the negative phase of the PSA pattern. While this explanation makes sense on the eastern flank of the central circulation anomaly associated with that pattern, the negative phase of the PSA pattern is also associated with strong cooling over West Antarctica. Autumn temperature declines have not been observed in that region, and thus our results suggest that the PSA-related cooling must have been offset by other factors. In contrast to the autumn warming over the Antarctic Peninsula, winter warming over West Antarctica has been associated with an atmospheric circulation resembling the positive phase of the PSA pattern \citep{Ding2011}. Our climatology revealed a (albeit non-significant) trend towards the negative phase of the PSA pattern during winter, which raises the question: how is it that winter temperature trends over West Antarctica are associated with an atmospheric circulation resembling the positive phase of the PSA pattern, but a climatology of PSA pattern activity reveals a trend that directly opposes that finding? One possible answer to this question comes from \citet{Li2015a}. They analyzed Rossby wave trains associated with observed SST trends in the tropical Atlantic, tropical Indian, west Pacific and east Pacific regions and found that all four have a center of action over the Amundsen Sea. While none of these individual wave trains resembled the PSA pattern, a linear combination of the four of them did (with the tropical Atlantic and west Pacific identified as most influential). In other words, the integrated influence of tropical SST trends on the atmospheric circulation resembles the positive phase of the PSA pattern, but the waves underpinning that teleconnection do not. This result is consistent with an earlier study that identified the tropical Atlantic as a driver of recent winter trends in West Antarctica \citep{Li2014}. Another possible answer comes from \citet{Fogt2015}, who suggest that radiative forcing has played a role in Amundsen Sea Low trends that are consistent with winter warming in West Antarctica. The absence of any springtime trend in the PSA pattern suggests that it has also not played a role in high latitude warming during that season. Similar to winter, the Atlantic has been linked to warming in West Antarctica during spring \citep{Simpkins2014}, while \citet{Clem2015a} point to a more meridionally oriented wave train associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.